GFS Op 0z - Once the hot air has been imported as per FAX it stagnates , even affecting the far N, under the influence of HP covering Britain. From Fri 26th the pressure drops as LP 1015mb moves up from France but still hot (and thundery?) until Wed 1st when the centre of this LP moves east across England and brings in cooler air from the north.

ECM - goes for a much shortened hot spell; after Wed 24th a more active Atlantic pushes the hot air back to the SE and replaces it by cooler W/NW-lies; LP 990mb develops on the Norwegian coast Sat 27th, with trough to SE England.

AIFS - London,  maxima rising to 35C Tue 23rd then staying at 30C to Sun 28th and dry. Mon/Tue 29th/30th much cooler at 20C and wet. Edinburgh, rising to 23C Tue 23rd (there's a temp gradient for you!) after which variable mostly around 17C, rain quite frequent with only a brief dry slot Wed/Thu 24th/25th.

GEFS - in the S, mean temp about 8C above norm to Mon 29th though slow to reach the peak in the SW (quite good ens agreement though not a few even hotter outliers up to 12c above), dropping back to norm or just above from Wed 1st. Very little chance of rain., some in the SW later. In Scotland and England from the Midlands northwards, a pulse of warmth this Sat, then cooler before rising to a mean of  5 or 6C above norm from Tue 23rd and dropping back to norm from the 1st. Chances of rain today & tomorrow and again from Fri 26th always heavier in Scotland.

Still uncertain as to how much heat will be imported from across the Channel, how far north and for how long.

Based on the radar, it looks like the UKV did well. I think it had the ppt too far west, but overall it did a lot better than the other models I saw.

In the end there was a bit of both - the trough (as shown on the "fax" charts, albeit it looked like a small low to me on the radar) started off with heavy downpours moving across down here, some purples on the radar for a time in eastern Kent, then a more general area of rain to follow. There was 1.4mm from it here, about half an hour of rain in total.

No rain here although it did look quite threatening for a while. UKV suggested I was in the firing line but looks like I need to get the watering can out again.

BTW the 12Z GFS is anothe rhot one but then gets quite wet across the south as a slow-moving low wedges itself in between the two HPs.

Post 2022 it just doesn't have the same hype though.

I'm hyped! maybe you should get your hormone levels checked 🙂

Loving the recent trends of the high pushing east and north T 850 temps of 21c in Cumbria? yes please.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=2&time=204&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=1&mv=0#mapref 

The 12z has the mean 850mb 15°C isotherm from 22nd to 29th.

AIFS 12z mean above 20c now. Crazy times.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Not only that but t2m values here reach above average for a day or two!

Yes easterlies not helping you even with way above average 850s. Hopefully you can get a hot spell at some point this summer.

GFS Op 0z - following on from FAX, HP revives over Scotland and slack LP moves up from Spain; these two dance around each other with a direct SE-ly flow established by Thu 25th. From Sun 28th LP moves from mid-Atlantic to N Scotland (1000mb Tue 30th) with eventually cooler westerlies for all. For the rest of the period to Sun 5th there is a nondescript W or NW-ly drift for Britain.

ECM - very much like GFS

AIFS - London, maxima in upper 20s through to Tue 30th with as couple of spikes through to 30+C Tue 23rd and Sat 27th. Then back to 25C with significant rain Wed 1st. Edinburgh, warming to 20C with only Sun 28th breaking 25C.Dry-ish for the beginning of next week but otherwise rain at times.

GEFS - mean 8-10C above norm in the S until Sun 28th when mean slowly drops back to norm, the 'slowly' being the average of ens members which drop off one by one (control quickly, op slowly). Little rain, perhaps a bit as July starts esp in N England. In Scotland , less etreme heat and slower to start (not until Tue 23rd) which marks the start of a few dry days, otherwise smal amounts of rain on many days.