The Weather Outlook

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Chunky Pea
25 June 2026 18:01:54

My point if you really don't understand is that the ensemble forecast for Aberdeen has little relevance for most people in the UK even with historically high uppers Aberdeen is chilly. So posting an ensemble chart for Aberdeen in response to discussion about summer conditions holding on in the south East of England when the conditions in the same country on the same are so different, is pure folly.

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 

Given that he actually lives in Aberdeen, isn't it only natural that he would post a chart for his own location? I think his bigger point is that 850 trends tend to be widely applied over a relatively large region. A trend over NE Scoland wouldn't be that out of the kilter with the rest of Scotland and even N. England/N Ireland at least.


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

25 June 2026 18:06:37

And as a general illustration (and now stated 3 times) it is same trend her as well as the south. If any member interprets that as suggesting it will be the same weather in the north and the south, perhaps they need to think a little more carefully

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=201&run=12&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

25 June 2026 18:11:18

And as a general illustration (and now stated 3 times) it is same trend her as well as the south. If any member interprets that as suggesting it will be the same weather in the north and the south, perhaps they need to think a little more carefully

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=201&run=12&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Upper air temp could be 5c in the south and the conditions could be 23/24c uppers in Aberdeen could be 15c and the temp could be 17c.

Folly posting ensembles for Aberdeen pretending they are relevant to surface conditions in the rest of the UK.  You seem a bit lets say.. literal so I'll leave it at that 😉

Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2026 18:30:07
Settled AIFS 12z becoming very hot again.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
25 June 2026 18:31:02

Upper air temp could be 5c in the south and the conditions could be 23/24c uppers in Aberdeen could be 15c and the temp could be 17c.

Folly posting ensembles for Aberdeen pretending they are relevant to surface conditions in the rest of the UK.  You seem a bit lets say.. literal so I'll leave it at that 😉

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 

You have just made exactly the same point I made in your first sentence and you think you have proven your point. 😂

As for your second sentence I have not referred to surface conditions when posting the t850 charts. Perhaps you just misunderstood my original post and thought that when I posted a trend in t850s generally (using my location as an example) that I didn’t actually mean that and that randomly I thought cooling trends in Aberdeen at t850 hPa level would mean colder weather in the SE. I mean it is a bit of a stretch… 

Anyway all that aside, there’s not much sign of any cool weather, just more seasonal.


Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2026 19:33:49
AIFS ensembles on the up. Another heatwave to start about the 6th??? Could be 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
25 June 2026 22:55:28

AIFS ensembles on the up. Another heatwave to start about the 6th??? Could be 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Hopefully. And hopefully even hotter!!!


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

The Beast from the East
26 June 2026 01:05:08
Seems like Heatwave 3 is appearing, though probably mid July before the high can build across properly and start pulling up that Euro heat
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

White Meadows
26 June 2026 06:24:38

AIFS ensembles on the up. Another heatwave to start about the 6th??? Could be 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

AIFS could be hallucinating.. gfs and EC suites look far more average long term. 

Not to say the doors of hell cannot open again at very short notice. 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2026 08:08:23
FAX - LP drifting up the west coast with most of the frontal and trough activity in N England/Scotland. By Sun 28th this has combined with Atlantic LP to form a centre S of Iceland 987mb which brings fresher westerly weather for all behind a couple of fronts. But HP is never far from the south and takes possession of Britain again 1028 mb N Ireland Tue 30th (but, hopefully, despite Matty's masochistic wishes, the really hot air is off to the SE of a long trailing front from E France to W Russia).

GFS Op 0z - picks up where FAX leaves off, and from there through to Sun 12th Britain's weather is mainly influenced by the position of the Azores high, so a 'traditional' British summer, basically fine and comfortably warm in the south, cooler and sometimes unsettled in the north (the Azores high at its closest Tue 2nd and Sun 12th, retreating with some cool NW-lies Sun 5th)

ECM - similar to GFS though the Azores High approaches closer to SW Ireland for much of the time, suggesting that weather over nearly all of Britain will be settled, fine and dry, though as the source of air is from the Atlantic around the 'top' of the HP, warm but not boiling hot,

AIFS - London, maxima dropping to 24C Sun 28th and staying there to Fri 10th, give or take a degree or two, small amounts of rain Sat 27th and Thu 4th. Edinburgh, maxima also dropping off but to around 18C, noticeably rising again after Wed 8th; rain at intervals until then.

GEFS - mean well supported by ens members down to norm Mon 29th and staying there for the following week (a little above in the S, a little below in the N) after which mean continues near norm but ens spread increases. A little rain at first in the south else mostly dry there, likelihood of rain progressively increases further north and actually quite wet for much of the time in the Highlands.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Charmhills
26 June 2026 08:12:51
Next week is still on course to be a much more pleasant week ahead, even a few showers around, but nothing overly wet.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=50902&var=201&run=0&date=2026-06-26&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

Better running weather.🏃‍♂️


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2026 08:24:30
Very dry outlook,  if the Azores HP can build over the UK, then we are looking  at another extreme heatwave again.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2026 08:25:47
Some very hot AIFS ensembles turning up.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
26 June 2026 08:33:26
Notable differences between IFS and AIFS again this morning. I've posted the London charts here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep601 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2026 08:41:31

Notable differences between IFS and AIFS again this morning. I've posted the London charts here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep601 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I find that ECM ensembles are more inclined to follow the Op than AIFS and GFS. 

The heat seems to depend if the HP can build over the UK properly.  The ECM Op very nearly gets there this morning. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
26 June 2026 16:29:53
GFS looking pretty warm again for the south by the end of next week on the 12Z.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
26 June 2026 16:41:54

GFS looking pretty warm again for the south by the end of next week on the 12Z.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes. 6-10 July looks to be the period where another heatwave could be on the cards. Crazy. Let’s be honest, next week at times looks very nice in terms of summer weather (for the south at least) years ago next week would have been considered a very good summers week.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2026 19:12:27
GEM 12z hot

AIFS 12z  super hot 🔥 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2026 19:41:30

GEM 12z hot

AIFS 12z  super hot 🔥 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Not again! Another 6 days at 30C+


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2026 19:41:31

GEM 12z hot

AIFS 12z  super hot 🔥 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Not again! Another 6 days at 30C+


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Heavy Weather 2013
26 June 2026 20:00:42

GEM 12z hot

AIFS 12z  super hot 🔥 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Apparently ECM also good. Next week seems to be very warm now as well. 


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2026 20:08:24

Not again! Another 6 days at 30C+

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Yes, AIFS looks particularly brutal 🥵🥵🥵


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
26 June 2026 20:24:23
Wow!

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Tom Oxon
26 June 2026 22:47:56
Not sure I see the 'Wow' there Brian, some decent scatter.
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
Crepuscular Ray
27 June 2026 06:23:35
Looks slightly above average temperatures to me on the 00Z GFS & MetO (ECM not fully out for me).

Mostly SW or W winds for eastern Scotland, always the best direction in summer. The Azores High building in at times with occasional sprinkles of rain coming through.

Maximum temps about 20 to 23 C here which would be quite pleasant!

We rarely do heatwaves here, July 2022 was the last one

For England, especially the SE, I suspect it may be warmer at times, 25 to 28 C? I'm not seeing another heatwave just yet?


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

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