https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/signal#rep601 

I find that ECM ensembles are more inclined to follow the Op than AIFS and GFS. 

The heat seems to depend if the HP can build over the UK properly.  The ECM Op very nearly gets there this morning. 

Yes. 6-10 July looks to be the period where another heatwave could be on the cards. Crazy. Let’s be honest, next week at times looks very nice in terms of summer weather (for the south at least) years ago next week would have been considered a very good summers week.

AIFS 12z  super hot 🔥 

Not again! Another 6 days at 30C+

Not again! Another 6 days at 30C+

Apparently ECM also good. Next week seems to be very warm now as well. 

Yes, AIFS looks particularly brutal 🥵🥵🥵

Mostly SW or W winds for eastern Scotland, always the best direction in summer. The Azores High building in at times with occasional sprinkles of rain coming through.

Maximum temps about 20 to 23 C here which would be quite pleasant!

We rarely do heatwaves here, July 2022 was the last one

For England, especially the SE, I suspect it may be warmer at times, 25 to 28 C? I'm not seeing another heatwave just yet?

TBF the ensembles have enough very hot options to take note of them - unlike similar chases in winter for cold, the hot ones invariably seem to come off these days.

Here's last night's ECM output for London as an example.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts2/ecmhrens/ecmwfens2mtlondon.png 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

GFS Op 0z - manages to slip in a fast-moving trough Tue 30th in addition to those shown on FAX. Then HP settles off SW Ireland typically 1030mb, near enough to ensure fine dry weather through to Mon 13th, but far enough to mean that the air circulating around will be from a pleasant W/NW direction. (there is a brief break with a shallow trough in the midst of a wider area of HP Fri 10th but that detail is a long way off)

ECM (to T +240) - similar to GFS; minor variations in that the trough on the 30th is more marked and supersedes anything on the 1st; and the subsequent HP is closer and moves in to cover Britain Tue 7th. EDIT and after T +240, continues to cover all of Britain except the far north, with stagnant air which should become increasingly hot. No sign of the Atlantic cavalry to the rescue.

AIFS - London, maximum drops to 24C Sun 28th then progressively rises to 30C Fri 10th (not quite as extreme as last night's 12z but still rather warm), a little rain (showers?) over this weekend then dry. Edinburgh, similar temp profile but about 6C below London; rain from time to time esp Tue 30th.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support drops to norm this weekend and stays there until Tue 7th. The mean continues near norm but an ens spread develops esp in the south with some very hot runs, the op being one such. The south has a little rain this weekend, then dry, grading to persistent rain over northern Scotland.

Starting to increasingly look that way. 50 years on from "The Daddy" of summers, is this "the New Daddy The Big Daddy" of summers?

I've always held a belief that the summer pattern sets in around the Soltice, just a feeling I have. I am starting to think this is "the one"!

28c, 30c, 29c, 30c, 31c, 34c, 36c, 33c, 33c, 35c

No surprise there, given that our summers have now become much drier and warmer, and given that we just don't get cool, wet and miserable summers here anymore.

I don't think every summer will be that way.

But we seem to be going through a period of hotter summers at the moment.

Like buses they all come at once.

WOW!!!! Yes please! I was starting to feel a little sad about the cooler weather. Hopefully it’s a blip

2024 was a below average summer with plenty of rain especially in Western Scotland.