https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_djf_v2-2.pdf 

Stormy , mild, wet.

Yuk

Post

That’s an odd interpretation since the figures actually show:

55% chance of average or colder than usual

70% chance of average or drier than usual 

65% chance of average or calmer than usual

Unless the MO can't update dates on a presentation or the link is cached perhaps, the issue date I am seeing is for last year??

Use this:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_djf_v2.pdf?flonk 

As you say, the other link is last year's. The "flonk" forces a redownload!

Thanks for the link. I'll take average over mild any day, during winter, and seeing as that's more likely, great! Maybe we'll get lucky and even have some cold thrown in for good measure.

where?

is see 10% cold

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_djf_v2.pdf 

Obvs whatever signals there were for higher than usual chance for cold have now evaporated. 

The new excuse from NW "reflective reversal", unfortunately the signals were from Pluto.

I call it +GW

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Sunday rain spreads northeast. Monday bright and breezy with a chance of showers then wet and windy conditions arrive overnight, gradually clearing east through Tuesday. Temperatures generally slightly above average.

"Slightly above average", hmm...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leyf.jpg 

Those temperatures (aside from today) would be more what you'd expect in mid-April rather than early December! 

Yes they're close to record breaking temps.  The UK date record for the 8th is only 15.8c.

That's why I was so surprised at the MetO saying they were merely "slightly above average", as they're far above that! Mind you, it's a bit sloppy thinking about it, they'd normally use the proper terms such as "rather mild" or, in this case, "very mild" (for the days) or "exceptionally mild" (for the nights). 

Indeed,  "close to record breaking" would be more accurate. 

I noticed the same for the BBC Weather for the week ahead forecasts. 5 day charts appear showing the same sort of temperatures (14 or 15c) and they just describe the weather as "mild" .  

It is a pretty good way of conditioning people to the new normal. You slowly edge the criteria up with no one noticing.

Good example of this is snowfall, a couple of cm's in the early 80's through to the 90's wouldn't have batted an eyelid at, now we get weather warnings and all sorts, the whole scale has shifted from cold to warm.

the classic is the Ian Mcgaskill forecast from 91 when he says "Many inches of snow, things becoming quite tricky", now it would be a Cobra meeting.

This morning's SE forecast is a bit better than yesterday's effort - no more "slightly above average", instead we have this for Monday to Wednesday:

"Mild throughout, and very mild Tuesday."

They also say tomorrow will be "very mild".

The raw output has 15s for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, with 13 for Wednesday. The 91-20 average here would be 9.5 (or thereabouts) this time of year, so we're looking at anomalies of 3 to 6 (depending on rounding), which would in official terminology be mild to exceptionally mild. They're no longer on the MetO website, but the definitions in winter are:

+2 to +3 - mild

+4 to +5 - very mild

+6 or more - exceptionally mild

Incidentally the old 61-90 average down here would have been 8.5, only a degree difference at this time of year but what a difference it makes!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmde2n3r3vo 

Multiple reports of a potentially record breaking downburst of almost 300kph

That’s extraordinary. It’s the sort of thing that can cause planes to crash as they’re coming in to land.

I've got fruit flies in the kitchen again!  I want them killed off!

Surprised the media havent yet cottoned on, but the Daily Express is not what it used to be when Nathan Rao was around.  Perhaps GB news will give Brian an interview. 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-snow-forecast-beast-east-36406521 

and Nathan Rao now works for GB News.  he's been forecasting clickbait snow all month

https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-weather-snowstorm-jet-stream-supercharge-storms-december-2025 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5TOa_ICqiY 

Why doesn't that surprise me! Seems like an organisation that has collected together the worst of the worst of so called journalists in the UK.

By the end of 2025, the UK's 10 warmest years on record will all have taken place in the last two decades, in measurements going back to the late 1800s.  "Anthropogenic [human-caused] climate change is causing the warming in the UK as it's causing the warming across the world," said Amy Doherty, another climate scientist at the Met Office.

2025 likely to be UK's hottest year on record, says Met Office

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgjzpglw4yo 

Subtly edited for you 👌😄