https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Not looked at the ensembles as I don't want to spoil this small bit of anticipation for now. 

Yes some runs have a cold easterly feed too, but at this stage its just one of several ideas. Even if we don't get the initial long fetch easterly, the pattern offers plenty of opportunities for a cold incursion down the road.

I'd say there is a good chance for something interesting before 2026 and a very high chance of drier weather and/or northern blocking. 

I wouldn't worry too much about that unless an actual white xmas is what you are betting on. The pattern is good, cold air will inevitably get caught up in the feed at some point. The question is, will the blocking last long enough or will the surge come early enough. 

But the models have high confidence that Saturday's low will be the last one for a while; then we enter a new regime of rapidly rising heights to our north and lowering heights to our south. 

The 06z run does keep that slight winter hope alive on the big day, but likely to be light and marginal stuff based on elevation - as often the case these days. Still, it is the nearest we are getting to in seemingly years. 

since 1981 round here.  I wasnt alive in 1970 when it was a proper White Christmas here.  Unlikely to happen but considering the mild crap we normally get this is very positive. A rare win for us battle weary model watchers

At least suggests there might be some frost - ice of any description has been a rarity at Christmas recently, except in festive drinks. The last frozen Christmas I can remember was 2010 which still had plenty of snow on the ground in Hants and a deep cold even if there wasn't any snow on the day itself.

The potential for some freezing fog around Christmas seems there. That would whiten everthing up in a more pleasing why than snow in my opinion. 

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2025121606/ecmwfnh-13-144.png?0 

Key features. Split tropospheric polar vortex. Canadian part north of the Hudson bay 480/-46C and Siberian part over NE siberia at 496/-46C. The Canadian part is a bit more concentrated than the Siberian part which isn't ideal. In the middle we have a weak arctic ridge; the models are notoriously poor at getting the placement of this right; so it could be much stronger deep anticyclone or so weak the two vortex lobes are merged. Both scenarios are possible even at T+144h. 

At lower latitudes we have a deep ridge extending to Greenland and a small cutoff low in the azores region. So its a decent pattern but lots could be improved on.

The ridge could merge with the ridge over the arctic and push that Siberian vortex SW which could result in a cold siberian easterly. The vortex could reform over the arctic and the deep ridge goes instead to scandanavia giving a bit of a short fetch scandi high type setup at the surface. The strength of the azores cutoff is also important. If that's too weak then the deep ridge could sink and give a Euro/UK high type setup. Some models also suggest possible northerlies if the Canadian vortex weakens a bit and the deep ridge pushes further west.

Beast's post moved to media

The time of year is unusual, but we've seen this sort of thing 9 or 10 days out many times over the years. The usual process is that it gets closer, with all the models wobbling a bit, then a small trough or low pops up nearer to the time and spoils things. 

That said, specifics can wait for now. The general pattern remains one of things turning a fair bit colder next week, and given the exceptional warmth so far this month it'll certainly be noticed!

But we have all seen this before...and then it's gone.**

Makes bed recovery from flu slightly more interesting!

**The GEM being a case in point ( as was JMA this morning)

Good to see you posting again.  We know cold weather is around when I see your name!

It’s really good to see consistent modelling. Of course lots to get through in the days ahead. But at least a colder outlook is on the cards, I’m sick of this mild gunk - it hasn’t felt festive at all.

I feel like there is a lot of consistency in the broad pattern atm, that low as as a trigger - perhaps me reminds of the nailed on easterly from 2018 when the broad pattern just kept repeating and felt locked in.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP08EU12_240_2.png 

personally I would take run no.8 for delayed cold ( only a day or two) but a proper north easterly

12Z is better

- Siberian polar vortex is a bit stronger and the Canadian part is a bit weaker

- Arctic ridge is a bit stronger

- Greenland ridge is quite a bit stronger and warmer 

- Azores cutoff low is a bit stronger, further SW and further from that Canadian lobe (if it merges into it, that's bad news)