The Weather Outlook

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Taylor1740
21 December 2025 11:38:43

The freezing level over the country from NYD is mostly 400 metres or lower, with 500-1,000 hPa values below 528dam and often in the low 520s until a less cold incursion moves south into Scotland at the end.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Yes exactly, so unlikely to be cold enough for snow away from high ground. We need sub 520 to get non-marginal snow to lower areas and even with those synoptics we still can't seem to get it cold enough now.


NW Leeds - 150m amsl
The Beast from the East
21 December 2025 11:42:07

So an improvement on the 6Z.

Expect a rollercoaster ride if a cold pattern is dependent on getting a height rise across the arctic to link up to our resident midlatitude high. Its the most poorly predicted place on earth with the possible exception of the southern ocean. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

a few members still give some hope for the south for Xmas day, we need that troughing to develop.  But overall it shows again how the power of the northern jet in the modern era buggers things up.  30 years ago I'm sure the high would have set up a few hundred miles further north. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Dickieboy68
21 December 2025 11:53:54
Perishing... Hmmm depends on what you're wearing whether you would perish... Perfectly possible in the modelled output - cold forced convection across wet bare skin. But hopefully most would 'feel' the need to wrap up warm, then it could be pleasantly bracing.... Interesting 🤔
Dickieboy - In the deep mid-Wiltshire 85m ASL

Formerly Guest (16) since 2004

The Beast from the East
21 December 2025 12:06:07

It will feel colder yes. ‘Perishingly’ so? I challenge the choice of adverbs more carefully. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I think he meant where he lives. Exposed to the north sea.  But even here compared to what we are used to it will be a shock to the system once you lose the humidity, it feel colder than the uppers suggest


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
21 December 2025 12:10:37
Pert 11 on the GEFS is fun.  Cold all the way from Christmas onwards.  Moomin's house under threat!


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Gandalf The White
21 December 2025 12:12:30

Yes exactly, so unlikely to be cold enough for snow away from high ground. We need sub 520 to get non-marginal snow to lower areas and even with those synoptics we still can't seem to get it cold enough now.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

That is inaccurate and simplistic.  You have to take into account several factors, as has been explained often enough.  The temperature in the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the nature and intensity of the precipitation.

Low 520s are more than adequate even for relatively low-lying areas.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



The Beast from the East
21 December 2025 12:13:42
Pert 19 also showing a white christmas for the south followed by a rapid transfer to scandi and snow for all by the 29th
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

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