https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/weather-health-alerts/cold 

https://ukhsa-dashboard.data.gov.uk/weather-health-alerts?v=map&type=cold 

Variable cloud through the morning after a chilly start, but mainly dry. Brighter for a time during the afternoon, then cloud and occasional rain spreads southeast towards the evening. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Spine chilling

Pathetic

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvgv22gl3dpt 

I just checked the forecasts for London and, at random, Canterbury, and both show 5c this afternoon?  I’d say that qualifies as well below average for mid-November?

Perhaps this belongs in a ‘winter moaning thread’?  Except it’s not even winter yet…

Apparently BTFE is on its way!!🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

The word ‘could’ features several times, but the most absurd aspect of the piece is that it defines a SSW but what’s predicted for the end of the week barely qualifies: it’s a very minor warning that barely reverses the stratospheric wind.

Even if it does occur it by no means guarantees a “Beast from the east” or similar spell of intense wintry weather in our neck of the woods. There’s certainly no real sign of that in the model output currently.

Hi Michael

A few points, if I may?  First, this warming doesn’t seem to be all that ‘sudden’ or rapid?  My understanding of the process is that it’s the suddenness of the event that triggers the changes and downward propagation into the troposphere: it’s akin to the difference between lowering a large rock into a pond and dropping it from height.

Second, your final paragraph is spot on.  I saw some stats that said there’s an SSW roughly every two years but clearly we don’t get a bitter, blocked spell at that frequency.  Then there’s the variable time lag between an SSW and any potential impacts below.  Then, finally, an SSW is just one piece of a complex jigsaw puzzle.

You're spot on - it doesn't necessarily make sense, but a 60N/10hPa reversal is a major SSW, whether or not there's much actual warming. 

Major SSWs do come along relatively often (albeit there's been the best part of a decade between them before), and the time of year has a major effect too - get a major one in late winter and it's not going to do much for us in terms of snow no matter how quickly it propagates downwards (if indeed it does - not all SSWs do).

This potential one is interesting because November major SSWs are almost unheard of. I hope it comes off as every one that does improves our understanding of them.

I’m also not sure how quickly the temperature increased at 10 hPa and although the wind reversal seems slight and gradual I don’t know if the rate at which the temperature increased was also gradual. I would need to find and look at the temperature charts rather than the 10hPa wind ones.

I think the end result being a zonal winds reversal does suggest that somewhere in the global pattern there will be a change from the prevailing normal conditions for the time of year. My hunch overall though ties in with your more “gentle” theory and that if there is a shift it will not necessarily be a dramatic sudden one.

Will be interesting to see contingency update this week and see if the front loaded mention is gone.

Daft isn’t it?  The imminent, barely qualifying wind reversal is the only one on offer at the moment.  

When nothing happens GB News will no doubt blame Starmer….

Asking for a friend 😉

Oops, I assumed Dub Version’s comment was an accurate summary of the updated forecast…. Is it not? 😳🤔

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/long-range-forecast 

To be fair, it's on their homepage:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ 

Yes, but I suspect people often have their own location bookmarked rather than navigating via the homepage, but I may be wrong.

You're probably right but personally I find the written forecasts on the Met website to be of the most value. 

Unfortunately netwweather no longer archive them

But it flipped to cold outlook for both a few days and then back to mild