I think this one might go amber closer to the time looking at the matrix (and the wording)

”Showers will turn increasingly to snow through Thursday as a strong, perhaps locally gale force northerly wind sets in. Initially accumulations will mainly affect higher routes, but by evening some accumulations will start to build even to low levels, with 2 to 5, locally 10 cm of lying snow accumulating by Friday morning. Above 200 m some places could see 10-20 cm of snow accumulate, and on the highest routes and hills, 30 cm or more may build through this period. Given the strength of the wind some significant drifting of snow is likely.”

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=b7c292c2-7a64-450d-8961-02654f888b7c&date=2026-01-01 

At the same time for the same area the BBC written forecast has “scattered wintry showers”.

Really? I just clicked on the Met Office site and the very first words I saw on the front page were "Cold start to New Year with snow and ice warning issued"... "and more likely to come".

And the long ranger sounds wintry enough:

Saturday 3 Jan - Monday 12 Jan

Northerly winds will bring a spell of very cold, wintry conditions to much of if not all of the UK through at least the early part of this period. These will bring snow showers to areas that are exposed to onshore winds. Subtle day-to-day changes in wind direction will change the places most exposed to the showers, but where they occur some significant accumulations of snow are likely. There are likely to be some more coherent bands of sleet and snow working south, and these may bring a risk of more prolonged and widespread wintry precipitation affecting some inland areas. Things become less certain by the second week of January, however it's possible the cold conditions may persist with an ongoing risk of winter hazards across much of the UK.

I realise it’s the wrong thread but are you reading the right forecast?

Saturday 3 Jan - Monday 12 Jan

“Northerly winds will bring a spell of very cold, wintry conditions to much of if not all of the UK through at least the early part of this period. These will bring snow showers to areas that are exposed to onshore winds. Subtle day-to-day changes in wind direction will change the places most exposed to the showers, but where they occur some significant accumulations of snow are likely. There are likely to be some more coherent bands of sleet and snow working south, and these may bring a risk of more prolonged and widespread wintry precipitation affecting some inland areas. Things become less certain by the second week of January, however it's possible the cold conditions may persist with an ongoing risk of winter hazards across much of the UK.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Mon 29 Dec 2025”

Wrong thread Ally, but refresh your browser. The Met Office 6-15 dayer is one of the most wintry forecasts I've seen in years!

That's my mistake then was reading the wrong update.  That's good one 👍 

Yes seen it now . Much better

It will change again today after the latest debacle

A small update to this warning this morning to increase the likelihood by one square in the matrix, which is understandable given the timescale. There is now also a mention of the possibility of lightning as an additional hazard.

Certainly has. Now the old “rain sleet and snow” (and we know which one of those three it will be when it arrives!) and the “change to milder conditions will be complete” by the end of week 2. 

Yet another false dawn from the models. 

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2026-01-02 

The snow and ice warning for .saturday and Sunday here details the “additional” snowfall accumulation and highlights the ongoing risk of Thundersnow/lightning:

“Snow showers are expected to continue through the weekend, being brought well inland by strong northerly winds. Winds should ease somewhat into Sunday, with showers by then most prevalent around coasts. With temperatures inland likely remaining below freezing through the weekend, thaw of lying snow is not expected.

With respect to additional accumulations: through the weekend a further 2 to 5, locally 10-15 cm of lying snow is possible in low lying areas. 15-30 cm could potentially accumulate above 200 m, most likely for the northwest Highlands and Grampians. Given wind strengths Saturday some drifting of snow and temporary blizzard conditions are likely. Lightning will be an additional hazard near showers.”

Of more general interest however Is that there is a warning out for NI and parts of Wales and England (a broad swathe from south if Manchester across the Midlands and down to parts of Kent):

“An area of sleet and snow is expected to move southeastwards across parts of England and Wales, lasting approximately 2 or 3 hours in any one place. Where snow falls, 1 or 2 cm is likely for some and perhaps as much as 5 cm snow possible in a few spots, especially higher ground of north Wales and northwest England. Icy patches will also develop quickly as sleet and snow clears.”

For NI:

“Following a spell of rain, sleet and hill snow on Thursday evening, icy stretches are likely to develop on untreated surfaces during the early hours of Friday. There will also be some snow showers early on Friday, mainly in the north and this could lead to patchy accumulations of 1 or 2 cm snow.”

Given the latest modelling I'm a bit surprised at the areas given for the yellow snow and I've warning for England and Wales - I'd have thought it should be further west and south west than it is.

And the main MetO forecast for both Oxford and High Wycombe, both in the center of the warning area, is predicting unbroken sunshine on that day, and clear skies at night too! Max 10% chance of precipitation.

It doesn't seem to me the stuff which warnings should be made of. I suppose these days, one flake of unexpected snow will set all social media users in a panic, so the MetO has to err on the side of caution. But there's such a thing as 'crying wolf'.

https://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2025123106/48-780UK.GIF?31-6 

Other models have it further South and West. Probably a nowcasting event.  I remember in 2021 after Storm Arwen a system came down from the NW and delivered snow to areas not expected by the models. 

In decades hence people will remember the Great Blizzard of the 2nd January which began the historic winter of 2026.

I'll bank that one please.

Historic? More like hysterical. Who'd of thought standard fare northerly is being played out as a 2010. Some of the warning and posts are really charlatan value.

I think they're being sarcastic 🙄 

The Met Office warning is entirely justified I think in so much as settling snow (be it a cm or more) gives a totally different driving surface.

Snow and ice is associated with more accidents and disruption hence the Met Office flagging it with a yellow warning.

“Grampian weather forecast

Thursday 1 Jan - Monday 5 Jan

Headline:

Heavy snow showers. Very cold in bitter winds.

Today:

Frequent heavy snow or hail showers with some bright spells through the day. Fresh to strong winds with occasional gales on coasts. Feeling very cold with a bitter windchill. Maximum temperature 3 °C.

Tonight:

Further heavy snow or hail showers will continue through the night, these perhaps persisting for a time. Drifting accumulations in strong northerly winds. Minimum temperature -2 °C.

Friday:

Very cold conditions with bitter winds and further snow and hail showers continuing, these likely heavy and turning into more prolonged snowfall with further accumulations. Maximum temperature 2 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Very cold conditions with further snow and hail showers continuing, these heavy and perhaps persisting giving some drifting accumulations.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Thu 1 Jan 2026”