Conditions in Sydney after the new year tend to be surprisingly cloudy and wet with high humidity and temps between 25c to 28c. We don’t have the Mediterranean climate Perth and Adelaide have, it’s quite oceanic. The number of times I have been down to circular quay / opera house area and seen glum tourists trudging around in the summer rain. Bushfires around Sydney in Feb and March are unheard of, I have been around here for over 20 years and I have never known it. Having said that temps of around 40c can pop up anytime in the summer, but much more common early.
The cricket test match at the Sydney Cricket Ground is always first week of January and is notorious for wet weather.
Originally Posted by: SydneyonTees
If all of that happened here, we would just call that a front-loaded summer but I would imagine that the ENSO state (La Nina/El Nino) would be a major factor here as well.
Here in the UK, we tend to use that as one of the global factors for what our winter in particular might be like. For that, we tend to base that on the conditions during the Northern Hemisphere winter when that is at its peak and since we are about to enter our winter, we are now going into the time of year when that peak would be expected to occur.
However, the UK is a lot further away from the ENSO region than Australia and so, I would expect Australia to be more greatly impacted by that in terms of what its summer will be like.
As far as I know, an El Nino tends to increase the risk of drought and bushfires in Australia whereas La Nina tends to result in wetter weather in Australia, thus increasing the risk of flooding but reducing the risk of drought or bushfires.
At the moment, La Nina has been struggling to form and this looks as though we will be in weak La Nina at most or possibly even ENSO neutral over the course of the coming Northern Hemisphere winter and Southern Hemisphere summer.
It will therefore be interesting to see the effect which this goes on to have on your summer as it would appear as though these bushfires and extremes in temperatures across Australia could at least be partly the result of La Nina failing to take hold as expected.
Edited by user
28 November 2024 11:29:14
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Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.