El Nino officiallly declared by BOM last night.

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Interesting David. Would the Tonga volcano that put huge amounts of water into the atmosphere/stratosphere have had any impact on the widespread large rainfall events we've seen globally this year? From a layman's angle what goes up has to come down.
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/6/912 
 

That’s an interesting paper. If I’m reading it correctly then a lot of the water was pushed up into the stratosphere and is above where our weather systems form?  The water that did get added to the troposphere would surely have been lost by now?

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That’s an interesting paper. If I’m reading it correctly then a lot of the water was pushed up into the stratosphere and is above where our weather systems form?  The water that did get added to the troposphere would surely have been lost by now?

That's the thing Peter. Is water ever lost unless it goes into space but I don't know if it does or even can in this case? I have little idea where the water is now. From a logical angle you might expect it/some to have fallen back to the surface by now. A hypothesis might be that the huge volume of water in the atmosphere from that eruption contributed to some of the massive rainstorms in the past few months around the globe. I think the paper sort of implies that. 
Nick

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That’s an interesting paper. If I’m reading it correctly then a lot of the water was pushed up into the stratosphere and is above where our weather systems form?  The water that did get added to the troposphere would surely have been lost by now?

The Tonga Volcano article reports up to 146*10^12 (Teragrams) of water being ejected into the Stratosphere

The Greek floods the other day show (by my reckoning on the maps published) an average of 200mm of rain falling over an area of about 100km x 100km with some areas inside this square totalling about 700mm but mostly in the range 100-200mm

Using my trusty fag packet the Tonga volcano ejection comes to 0.146Gt (10^9 tons) of water whilst just the Greek flood total on its own comes to around 2 Gt rain

My conclusion is on that basis the Tonga Volcano was not much if any of a contribution to the recent floods

 

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El Nino officiallly declared by BOM last night.

What is BOM?🤫

What is BOM?🤫

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology?

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That's the thing Peter. Is water ever lost unless it goes into space but I don't know if it does or even can in this case? I have little idea where the water is now. From a logical angle you might expect it/some to have fallen back to the surface by now. A hypothesis might be that the huge volume of water in the atmosphere from that eruption contributed to some of the massive rainstorms in the past few months around the globe. I think the paper sort of implies that. 
Nick

Like it happened in NZ, Libya, Death Valley, Greece with Cyprus avoided it but got frequent storms here and there.  Is also any water in the atmosphere would had been frozen and then fall back as ice pellets?

The excess water injected into the stratosphere will increase warming, and not how much rain falls from an event on the other side of the world. 

I read the warming from event will primarily be local to the Pacific - I assume that this would just increase the chance & intensity of El nino. 

https://www.instagram.com/p/CxaHP3iAUjt/?igshid=NzZhOTFlYzFmZQ== 


Unusual deep early snow yesterday in Lapland