The Weather Outlook

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polarwind
27 November 2021 11:18:58

This wasn't expected.....


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-hurricanes-for-first-time-in-65-years-as-cyclone-activity-stops-98phndpzx 


 


After a hectic start to the Atlantic hurricane season, cyclone activity around the world has come to a sudden halt, leaving seas eerily silent and scientists stumped.


For weeks, the oceans have been quiet and the tropics devoid of cyclones. Not one hurricane-strength storm has formed since October 29. This has happened only twice since 1966, Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, told The Washington Post.


and......


...........


Anyone care to comment?

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
tallyho_83
27 November 2021 12:05:33
I did notice this - I am unsure when the last Atlantic Hurricane was and it's a surprise given how warm the Atlantic has been this season esp the tropical regions.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


johncs2016
27 November 2021 12:57:44

I did notice this - I am unsure when the last Atlantic Hurricane was and it's a surprise given how warm the Atlantic has been this season esp the tropical regions.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Another thing to consider is that there is also a weak to moderate La Nina in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean which normally promotes the formation of Atlantic hunnricanes and dampens down the formation of any Pacific hurricanes. I can therefore see why we've not been seeing any Pacific hurricanes just lately, but this just makes the recent lack of Atlantic hurricanes even more puzzling as I would have thought that La Nina would have made this less likely to happen.


 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Essan
27 November 2021 13:02:09

The last named storm in the Atlantic was Wanda in early November.   However the last actual hurricane was Sam in Sept/Oct

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-11-22-2021-hurricane-season-recap

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
polarwind
27 November 2021 14:13:08

I did notice this - I am unsure when the last Atlantic Hurricane was and it's a surprise given how warm the Atlantic has been this season esp the tropical regions.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

It's a particular surprise when we are reasonably told that global warming temperatures will lead to more and increasingly strong hurricanes.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
John S2
27 November 2021 14:25:49


It's a particular surprise when we are reasonably told that global warming temperatures will lead to more and increasingly strong hurricanes.


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


The evidence is that when hurricanes do form they are intensifying more quickly than previously and becoming stronger.


The situation regarding the actual number that form is less clear.


There will continue to be considerable year to year variability in the number that form in particular months as there are several factors that can dampen or enhance formation in the short term.

Essan
27 November 2021 14:38:38


It's a particular surprise when we are reasonably told that global warming temperatures will lead to more and increasingly strong hurricanes.


Originally Posted by: polarwind 




We had the 3rd highest number of named Atlantic storms this season    



Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
polarwind
27 November 2021 15:21:38





We had the 3rd highest number of named Atlantic storms this season    




Originally Posted by: Essan 


When I 'collected' train numbers, a 'namer' always carried much more importance than a train with no name! Don't you agree?

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
29 November 2021 16:17:00

Old news, but thought this piece on the coldest recorded winter in Antarctica worth putting here.


 


Between April and September, a research station sitting on a high plateau in Antarctica, registered an average temperature of minus 78 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 61 degrees Celsius). That's the coldest temperature recorded since record keeping began in 1957, and about 4.5 F (2.5 C) lower than the most recent 30-year average, according to The Washington Post. 



The previous record for the coldest winter was minus 77 F (minus 60.6 C) in 1976, Stefano Di Battista, a journalist wrote on Twitter. The Post learned of this record through Battista, but then confirmed the information with Richard Cullather, a research scientist at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
 
from - https://www.livescience.com/south-pole-coldest-winter-record 
 
Is this just a blip?
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Rob K
29 November 2021 16:58:43
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1465357555144798209 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
29 November 2021 17:18:24


Old news, but thought this piece on the coldest recorded winter in Antarctica worth putting here.


 


Between April and September, a research station sitting on a high plateau in Antarctica, registered an average temperature of minus 78 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 61 degrees Celsius). That's the coldest temperature recorded since record keeping began in 1957, and about 4.5 F (2.5 C) lower than the most recent 30-year average, according to The Washington Post. 



The previous record for the coldest winter was minus 77 F (minus 60.6 C) in 1976, Stefano Di Battista, a journalist wrote on Twitter. The Post learned of this record through Battista, but then confirmed the information with Richard Cullather, a research scientist at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office
 
from - https://www.livescience.com/south-pole-coldest-winter-record 
 
Is this just a blip?

Originally Posted by: polarwind 


Did you create this thread as a shop window for your entrenched and dubious climate change skepticism?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


polarwind
29 November 2021 18:03:38


cry 


Did you create this thread as a shop window for your entrenched and dubious climate change skepticism?



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Not at all. I've always been fascinated with extreme, unusual and outstanding weather events over the planet - think of thunderstorms, snowstorms, hailstorms, very cold and very warm periods, very wet and very dry periods. 


And you do know that I'm not a sceptic as you would describe it - my position is that there is and has been recent global warming and CO2 plays its part. I just rationalise that historical and climatological evidence confirms that there are other causes to climate change other than CO2. The question to answer for me is what proportion of global warming is the result of CO2.


All that of course can be and has to be discussed elsewhere. cool


 


 

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
polarwind
29 November 2021 18:36:10

Looks like some serious damage in Istanbul from high winds today - maybe tornadic? Originally Posted by: Rob K 

">https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1465357555144798209


Wow! Certainly very strong winds and tornadic in my eyes. Quantum will know.


 

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Chunky Pea
29 November 2021 18:42:45


Not at all. I've always been fascinated with extreme, unusual and outstanding weather events over the planet - think of thunderstorms, snowstorms, hailstorms, very cold and very warm periods, very wet and very dry periods. 


And you do know that I'm not a sceptic as you would describe it - my position is that there is and has been recent global warming and CO2 plays its part. I just rationalise that historical and climatological evidence confirms that there are other causes to climate change other than CO2. The question to answer for me is what proportion of global warming is the result of CO2.


All that of course can be and has to be discussed elsewhere. cool


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


Sweden, apparently, recorded one of its coldest temperatures in decades just recently:


https://twitter.com/ZdenekNejedly/status/1464912308812103686


And rumour has it that Australia is currently going through its coolest November since the late 90s. 

East Galway, Ireland.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
Roger P, 12-Oct-2022
Gandalf The White
29 November 2021 18:51:11


 


Sweden, apparently, recorded one of its coldest temperatures in decades just recently:


https://twitter.com/ZdenekNejedly/status/1464912308812103686


And rumour has it that Australia is currently going through its coolest November since the late 90s. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Well, of course, there will still be new records set for coolest/coldest but the evidence shows that the records are falling predominantly at the other end of the scale, i.e. warmest/hottest.   Plus, of course, record droughts and floods, both of which are associated with disruption to normal weather patterns.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


polarwind
29 November 2021 18:54:24


 


Sweden, apparently, recorded one of its coldest temperatures in decades just recently:


https://twitter.com/ZdenekNejedly/status/1464912308812103686


And rumour has it that Australia is currently going through its coolest November since the late 90s. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Something to do with the Antarctic's coldest winter ever recorded maybe?

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Chunky Pea
29 November 2021 19:00:22


 


Well, of course, there will still be new records set for coolest/coldest but the evidence shows that the records are falling predominantly at the other end of the scale, i.e. warmest/hottest.   Plus, of course, record droughts and floods, both of which are associated with disruption to normal weather patterns.



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


All very true. 

East Galway, Ireland.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
Roger P, 12-Oct-2022
Chunky Pea
29 November 2021 19:01:53


 


Something to do with the Antarctic's coldest winter ever recorded maybe?


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


No doubt that was a big factor I'd say. What will be interesting to see is how long that cold will last.

East Galway, Ireland.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
Roger P, 12-Oct-2022
Rob K
29 November 2021 20:04:14


 


Sweden, apparently, recorded one of its coldest temperatures in decades just recently:


https://twitter.com/ZdenekNejedly/status/1464912308812103686


And rumour has it that Australia is currently going through its coolest November since the late 90s. 


Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


I saw a post on Twitter a couple of weeks ago showing snow right down to sea level in Hobart. Pretty unusual for mid-November, akin to mid-May in the northern hemisphere.


Tasmania is of course a pretty chilly part of the world with nothing but cold ocean between it and Antarctica. I was there in January one year, the height of summer, and missed some decent snowfall across the highlands by a week.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Essan
29 November 2021 20:11:18


I saw a post on Twitter a couple of weeks ago showing snow right down to sea level in Hobart. Pretty unusual for mid-November, akin to mid-May in the northern hemisphere.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-15/hobart-records-coldest-november-night-since-1953/100620292

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10205741/Snow-falls-Australia-antarctic-blast-hits-southeast-just-two-weeks-summer.html 

But has to be balanced against all the record warmth - assuming this thread is meant to be objective

Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Gandalf The White
29 November 2021 20:28:14


 


I saw a post on Twitter a couple of weeks ago showing snow right down to sea level in Hobart. Pretty unusual for mid-November, akin to mid-May in the northern hemisphere.


Tasmania is of course a pretty chilly part of the world with nothing but cold ocean between it and Antarctica. I was there in January one year, the height of summer, and missed some decent snowfall across the highlands by a week.


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Yes, Tasmania is about as far from the edge of Antarctica as Scotland is from the coast of Greenland, and they don’t have the Gulf Stream to modify the cold.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


johncs2016
29 November 2021 21:04:35


 


Yes, Tasmania is about as far from the edge of Antarctica as Scotland is from the coast of Greenland, and they don’t have the Gulf Stream to modify the cold.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Let's not forget as well though that as we are going into our winter, the Southern Hemisphere is going into its summer and the least likely time of the year when you would therefore be expecting any cold weather there.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Bertwhistle
29 November 2021 21:18:11


 


Let's not forget as well though that as we are going into our winter, the Southern Hemisphere is going into its summer and the least likely time of the year when you would therefore be expecting any cold weather there.


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Not quite right- end of the winter period (ie spring) given thermal lag, will be more significant in oceanic climates.


But-back on thread- this is a weather and not climate thread?

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
polarwind
29 November 2021 21:29:14


Well, if we're going back a few weeks ....

Record high temperatures for October reported across Japan    *1


Snow on strike in the world’s coldest region, as temperatures in Siberia go 4 to 12C above the norm    *2


Tundra is ablaze in Magadan region in out-of-season wildfire, complicated by wind and zero snow


Italy hit by 20 ‘severe weather events’ in a day as Liguria sees record rainfall 


New Zealand records its warmest ever winter with average temperature of 9.8C     *3

Make of that what you will

Plenty more to see here:

http://weatherearthnews.blogspot.com/ 


Originally Posted by: Essan 


*1    Indeed, and that was followed in November by record snowfalls and low temperatures.


*2    Agreed, and this positive temperature anomaly is in line with what was reported about the +2 to 4 deg.C sea temperature anomaly in October along parts of the Russian Arctic coastline, which was followed very quickly in November by very fast Arctic Ice buildup along the same coast trapping over 20 ships in different locations (as I read it). 


Over land November brought record low temperatures in Siberia along with unusually heavy snowfall.


*3   You can compare this with Australia, having its coolest November since the 90's


All in all, many of these swings in temperature/snowfall both spacially and locally are unusual in that they are big or record breaking. 


But, its certainly not time to draw any conclusions as to what is going off - 


 

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby

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