The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

Devonian
14 May 2026 21:29:40

The problem, Dev, is that the boat that would have got us to a survivable climate has now sailed.  Sea level is rising faster than ever, having increased in the last decade: we’re now looking at 5 cm per decade. It will continue to increase, driven by melting ice and thermal expansion.  It might not sound much but it’s a one way street heading downhill: potentially a metre in 75 years is incredibly serious.

A huge amount of the additional heat from AGW has been taken up by the oceans. That will likely mean more extreme El Niño events, such as this one predicted (with a fairly high confidence level) for later this year.  That will most likely drive global air temperatures to a new record, potentially 1.7-1.8c above pre-industrial levels.

Global CO2 is now above 430ppm.  

There’s a really good animation here: https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/carbon-dioxide/

The emissions juggernaut won’t be stopping this side of 500ppm, I don’t think?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Yes and I'm afraid I think 500ppm is optimistic, I think the atmosphere will get to a point where it is bad for health - and not just our species.. Remember, 'co2 is plant food', 'drill baby drill' and how people from you and I to 'Hansen' and 'Mann' have been attacked.

Not happy thoughts, sometimes I wonder if humans are already starting to behave more oddly under the influence of increasing CO2 - we'll get scorned and ridiculed for that too....

Chunky Pea
17 May 2026 23:19:27
Some serious tornadic storms have broken out over parts of western Iowa & eastern Nebraska at the moment. Reed Trimmer is currently on the scene. Potential for even more serious storms & tornadic activity tomorrow night over pretty much the same broader region. Some interesting captures likely over the coming days, and hopefully without any tragedy. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 June 2026 07:58:33

Asymmetric snow season (not much early, then lots of it) creating unstable snowpacks hence avalanches

Originally Posted by: DEW 

And it continues (the above post was from March)

Stage of Women's Giro d'Italia shortened by 28km as finish threatened by 'unstable ice sheet' in the Alps at Colle de Finestre between Turin and Sestriere. The road had already needed clearing from a previous avalanche

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/articles/c20y4920ew7o 


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

saxtemp
07 June 2026 14:51:51

Yes and I'm afraid I think 500ppm is optimistic, I think the atmosphere will get to a point where it is bad for health - and not just our species.. Remember, 'co2 is plant food', 'drill baby drill' and how people from you and I to 'Hansen' and 'Mann' have been attacked.

Not happy thoughts, sometimes I wonder if humans are already starting to behave more oddly under the influence of increasing CO2 - we'll get scorned and ridiculed for that too....

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

This is something I've thought about before, and only seen discussed a handful of times. Living in permanent 500-600ppm co2 will affect health more than people realise.

Devonian
07 June 2026 21:07:39

This is something I've thought about before, and only seen discussed a handful of times. Living in permanent 500-600ppm co2 will affect health more than people realise.

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

We're already living in a thin smoke of the products of combustion that don't rain out. I think life has seen huge volcanic and massive fires and surivived but what centuries of exposure to high levels of CO2 will do is something I do wonder about - I think someone should make a lab where CO2 is controlled to 280ppm and see if it has any effect on people. It would be the only place on earth without a stuff atmosphere. Otoh, what will 40-45C heatwaves in mid latitudes do to humanity?

But, CO2, 'it's plant food init' so there's nowt to be concerned about 👍

Roger Parsons
12 June 2026 08:28:09
‘Godzilla’ El Niño! If you did not see the Telegraph article about this, it's on Yahoo.

"El Niño, an oceanic heatwave that occurs two to three times each decade, is building in the Pacific around the equator, and is expected to peak in September, the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned.

The warm current will affect weather patterns and increase the risk of droughts in Australia, and southern parts of Asia and Africa. It will also increase the likelihood of violent storms and heavy rainfall in parts of the Americas.

US scientists confirmed on Thursday that El Niño conditions were under way in the tropical Pacific after sea-surface temperatures rose sharply in recent months.

While droughts and storms are bad enough, experts say this could be the strongest El Niño on record, with even more severe potential outcomes. These include flooding, landslides, wildfires, famine, conflict and migration.

The expected severity has led to some meteorologists using the term Godzilla El Niño – after the colossal dinosaur-like creature that has featured in dozens of monster films.

How a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño could plunge the world into irreversible chaos

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/godzilla-el-nino-could-plunge-050000708.html 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Roger Parsons
16 June 2026 14:06:22
A bit of history...

""There's a lot been on the news quite recently about El Nino and the effects the global impact of this warm water current in the Pacific might have on the world as it has in the past," says Dr Robb Robinson, an honorary research fellow at the University of Hull. 

"That and its complementary current, the Humboldt current, the cold-water current, have been a subject of a lot of examination over the years," he adds.

"And one of the reasons we know quite a lot about it is that the foundations for our understanding of these currents in the Pacific, a lot of them were laid by a research ship called the William Scoresby."

How forgotten voyages helped track El Nino - Hull

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cnv9dlppmr7o 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Rob K
22 June 2026 10:33:10
The French readings are back on Weatherobs after mysteriously disappearing for a few days.

Already 38.4C at La Rochelle, should be plenty of 40s across France today.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

saxtemp
27 June 2026 13:58:15
Does anyone have a good link for (official) weather stations in Germany/Poland? Looks like Sunday will be the peak and hottest day ever.
Ally Pally Snowman
27 June 2026 14:25:24

Does anyone have a good link for (official) weather stations in Germany/Poland? Looks like Sunday will be the peak and hottest day ever.

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

Weatherobs.com  is good

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=http://weatherobs.com/&ved=2ahUKEwik76HYz6eVAxVdXEEAHVTBOqIQFnoECBEQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1ALnlEoty8715VYZpSKXLM 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2026 04:50:50
But if you want heatwaves, the real bigly and beautifullest ones are a special part of the 25th celebrations in Washington.

"By the way, on July 4th, it's going to be approximately 107 degrees out, and I'm gonna go and I'm gonna make a really long speech just to show that I can do anything," he [Trump] said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cevlkzer7vdo 


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2026 05:56:31
He really said that.

"By the way, on July 4th, it's going to be approximately 107 degrees out, and I'm gonna go and I'm gonna make a really long speech just to show that I can do anything." 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2026 08:03:33
Most cities in the northeast US recording record levels of pollution from Canadian wildfires and in many cases well above the level regarded as hazardous.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/07/dangerous-and-historic-wildfire-smoke-pollution-event-engulfs-the-u-s-and-canada/ 

The only comparable wildfire smoke event affecting this portion of North America occurred in 2023; a 2025 study blamed that event for 33,000 premature deaths in the United States, 8,300 in Canada, and 23,000 in Europe. According to the EPA, a premature air pollution death is one that occurs on average 14 years before a person would have otherwise died.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Ulric
26 July 2026 08:30:20
This looks a bit lively!

A significant severe weather outbreak is forecast across the north-central Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea region on Sunday. Strong instability and highly sheared environments combine for widespread thunderstorm activity with large to giant hail, severe winds, tornadoes, and flash flood potential.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/weather-forecast/severe-weather-forecast-outlook-july-26th-2026-high-risk-europe-italy-adriatic-mk/ 


"Et quidem de Sclavorum gente, quae vobis valde imminet, et affligor vehementer et conturbor. Affligor in his quae jam in vobis patior; conturbor, quia per Istriae aditum jam ad Italiam intrare coeperunt." Pope Gregory I, 600AD

Remove ads from site