The Weather Outlook

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Devonian
14 May 2026 21:29:40

The problem, Dev, is that the boat that would have got us to a survivable climate has now sailed.  Sea level is rising faster than ever, having increased in the last decade: we’re now looking at 5 cm per decade. It will continue to increase, driven by melting ice and thermal expansion.  It might not sound much but it’s a one way street heading downhill: potentially a metre in 75 years is incredibly serious.

A huge amount of the additional heat from AGW has been taken up by the oceans. That will likely mean more extreme El Niño events, such as this one predicted (with a fairly high confidence level) for later this year.  That will most likely drive global air temperatures to a new record, potentially 1.7-1.8c above pre-industrial levels.

Global CO2 is now above 430ppm.  

There’s a really good animation here: https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/carbon-dioxide/

The emissions juggernaut won’t be stopping this side of 500ppm, I don’t think?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Yes and I'm afraid I think 500ppm is optimistic, I think the atmosphere will get to a point where it is bad for health - and not just our species.. Remember, 'co2 is plant food', 'drill baby drill' and how people from you and I to 'Hansen' and 'Mann' have been attacked.

Not happy thoughts, sometimes I wonder if humans are already starting to behave more oddly under the influence of increasing CO2 - we'll get scorned and ridiculed for that too....

Chunky Pea
17 May 2026 23:19:27
Some serious tornadic storms have broken out over parts of western Iowa & eastern Nebraska at the moment. Reed Trimmer is currently on the scene. Potential for even more serious storms & tornadic activity tomorrow night over pretty much the same broader region. Some interesting captures likely over the coming days, and hopefully without any tragedy. 
Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 June 2026 07:58:33

Asymmetric snow season (not much early, then lots of it) creating unstable snowpacks hence avalanches

Originally Posted by: DEW 

And it continues (the above post was from March)

Stage of Women's Giro d'Italia shortened by 28km as finish threatened by 'unstable ice sheet' in the Alps at Colle de Finestre between Turin and Sestriere. The road had already needed clearing from a previous avalanche

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/articles/c20y4920ew7o 

War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

saxtemp
07 June 2026 14:51:51

Yes and I'm afraid I think 500ppm is optimistic, I think the atmosphere will get to a point where it is bad for health - and not just our species.. Remember, 'co2 is plant food', 'drill baby drill' and how people from you and I to 'Hansen' and 'Mann' have been attacked.

Not happy thoughts, sometimes I wonder if humans are already starting to behave more oddly under the influence of increasing CO2 - we'll get scorned and ridiculed for that too....

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

This is something I've thought about before, and only seen discussed a handful of times. Living in permanent 500-600ppm co2 will affect health more than people realise.

+1
Devonian
07 June 2026 21:07:39

This is something I've thought about before, and only seen discussed a handful of times. Living in permanent 500-600ppm co2 will affect health more than people realise.

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

We're already living in a thin smoke of the products of combustion that don't rain out. I think life has seen huge volcanic and massive fires and surivived but what centuries of exposure to high levels of CO2 will do is something I do wonder about - I think someone should make a lab where CO2 is controlled to 280ppm and see if it has any effect on people. It would be the only place on earth without a stuff atmosphere. Otoh, what will 40-45C heatwaves in mid latitudes do to humanity?

But, CO2, 'it's plant food init' so there's nowt to be concerned about 👍

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