it’s a sign when the CFS gets dragged into the hope of how desperate things are! First week of February should give an indication if we can get a decent cold spell for the south at least

GFS Op - Storm Jocelyn passing quickly but violently past N Scotland  tonight (960mb - FAX) followed by a remarkably repetitive pattern of LPs passing near northern Scotland and ridges of HP spreading (briefly) up from the south, winds switching between W/NW under the influence of LP and W/SW under HP and mostly strong. To accentuate the positive, HP is forecast Thu 25th, Tue 30th, Sat 3rd, Thu 8th and LP filling the gaps. The depressions go on to an LP graveyard in N Russia where LP persists as it receives reinforcements from the Atlantic. Zonal with a vengeance.

ECM - similar to GFS but more emphasis on HP, the final chart (Fri 2nd) showing HP generally over Britain rather than just a ridge.

GEFS - temps mild in the S, often 5C above norm through to Wed 31st  (bar a short dip on the 26th) with quite good ens agreement; in the N more of an oscillation above and below norm. For the start of February the usual variation breaks out, with the value of the mean slowly dropping to norm in the middle of quite a wide envelope. Not a lot of rain in the S, and that intermittent; rather more but not excessive in the N but as usual the far NW is continually wet.

A reprieve from wet is always to be welcomed, but mild in the winter never feels good to me. I want to need a big coat and hat and gloves and go walking the dog in crisp cold.

To be honest, it sounds lovely

Is it too early for WIO post!

Looks very pleasant in the south as long as the high can steer those atlantic systems away

Too early for the north to say WIO but IMO its game over for the south - possibly forever now.

I've been deluding myself since 2014 believing that we will get a repeat of those days in the 80's, 90's, mid 00's and 09-13 and that it was just a blip...no more, its over.

Last week showed me how far AGW has progressed.

Of the 5 stages of grief I've now reached Stage 5...its all ok.

Back to the models I'll be happy with this. Temps possibly in the low teens would feel grand with light breezes and a little sunshine. Lengthening days too as life slowly starts to wake up from its 5 week dark autumn period.

Is this the first 'all winter's are over' post.

Yes... 😁😁😁.

Some other parts of the world still seem to be able to get severe cold these days, even when we don't get it. Look at the north-east and east coast of the USA in recent days, for instance.

Back to the models, and at the moment the output rather reminds me of that back in mid-December in terms of how poor things look for coldies. At that time, just like now, it was hard to see where any change to a colder pattern would come from, but look at how the output changed in the days between Christmas and New Year. I'm not saying the same thing will happen again, but one should never completely rule anything in or out with the model output as we all know how fickle the models often are in FI.

Yes - almost commacal (sic) 😂

The new anti woke minister made them do it for balance 😁

it's not really because it's "winter" . More not in a static HP situation but they are generally in a more mobile one where there is a normal adiabatic lapse rate. I'm not seeing any inversion in those charts.

But see my comment in 'Unusual World Weather' on a rapid turnaround there, and a speculation on how the change might affect the jetstream.

The updates I can see are dated 22/01.

Through the middle of February, changeable conditions are most likely with the wettest and windiest conditions in the north and northwest. It is likely to be drier further southeast, although some wet and windy spells are still possible here. Later in the month there is an increasing likelihood of winds from the north or east, which will increase the chance of some colder spells and perhaps snow.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 23 Jan 2024

And its back on again !🤣

Met Eireann have that in their long range outlook as well.

While mean temperatures during FMA are signaled to be slightly above average overall, there is a high chance of cold outbreaks from the north and northeast, particularly in February and early March, leading to below average temperatures at times.

Funnily at 330 of GFS there isn't an isobar between southern England and Sudan in Africa.

The weather is set for the next 2 weeks as far as GFS is concerned.

North : sometimes windy and quite wet, average to mild

South: Dry and mild.

Here ends my 14 day outlook.

Utter yawnfest.