I think you have me mistaken for someone else lol.
 

You’re correct 🙂

But you certainly said the ECM ensembles were ‘exceptionally mild’ and the implication of that expression is that you were suggesting we would experience mild weather, was it not?

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You’re correct 🙂

But you certainly said the ECM ensembles were ‘exceptionally mild’ and the implication of that expression is that you were suggesting we would experience mild weather, was it not?

The outlook is mild , maybe the odd average day but mainly mild or very mild. Not sure what you are seeing to suggest otherwise.

 

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ECM ENS 12Z continues to paint a mild outlook.

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ECM ENS 12Z continues to paint a mild outlook.

Even milder than the GEFS and based on all of today's output, the chances of any sustained cold spell commencing within the next 12 days looking pretty slim.

The outlook is mild , maybe the odd average day but mainly mild or very mild. Not sure what you are seeing to suggest otherwise.

 

Sure does, Ally. And for Pete’s sake the much revered strat ‘reversal’ doesn’t look favourable this time! 

ECM ENS 12Z continues to paint a mild outlook.

Yes, but not ‘exceptionally mild’ with high overnight minima, as was being suggested.  The maximum 2m temperatures shown on the mean are around 10c for the Home Counties, ie slightly mild, and on the chilly side overnight.

As you know better than most, the 850hPa values are not always a good indicator of conditions at the surface in the winter.

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Tuesday 6 Feb - Tuesday 20 FebInto early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north. Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024


You have to laugh at the double negatives!!!

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

What rubbish the Met Office has written...

How the heck can there be as Met office say "A Greater chance than normal of easterly winds from the north or east and leading to an increased chance, compared to normal of cold spells with hazards such as snow and Ice more likely towards mid February!" then go on to say "albeit still a very low chance?"
Then after that they state "Whilst drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes....etc

Contradiction? - NO!
Seriously messed up non-sensical drivel going on there!

Meanwhile - the 18z ENS shows quite a lot of scatter into FI - I am surprised the ENS have trended wetter too and that the models haven't yet picked up on the SSW yet or maybe this will come in due course - as we are over half way through meteorological winter now?

 

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CFS 18z run going for a cold mid late February...840hrs have another Northern France Benelux runner once again South Coast missing out by a whisker!!!

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CFS 18z run going for a cold mid late February...840hrs have another Northern France Benelux runner once again South Coast missing out by a whisker!!!

it’s a sign when the CFS gets dragged into the hope of how desperate things are! First week of February should give an indication if we can get a decent cold spell for the south at least

Agreed. Here in the core of winter and it’s a mild outlook at present. CFS postings are always the hallmark of desperation. 

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Some movement in the WX temp charts this morning (in the wrong direction for coldies). Week 1 holds the freezing line at Eastern Baltic - Romania, but already with Spain becoming very mild and the ultracold area over Russia breaking up. Unlike yesterday, the freezing line retreats NE-wards in week 2 with milder weather spreading across N Europe all the way to the Black Sea - and the temp anomaly is already well above norm for everywhere west of the Urals (only Turkey excepted).

GFS Op - Storm Jocelyn passing quickly but violently past N Scotland  tonight (960mb - FAX) followed by a remarkably repetitive pattern of LPs passing near northern Scotland and ridges of HP spreading (briefly) up from the south, winds switching between W/NW under the influence of LP and W/SW under HP and mostly strong. To accentuate the positive, HP is forecast Thu 25th, Tue 30th, Sat 3rd, Thu 8th and LP filling the gaps. The depressions go on to an LP graveyard in N Russia where LP persists as it receives reinforcements from the Atlantic. Zonal with a vengeance.

ECM - similar to GFS but more emphasis on HP, the final chart (Fri 2nd) showing HP generally over Britain rather than just a ridge.

GEFS - temps mild in the S, often 5C above norm through to Wed 31st  (bar a short dip on the 26th) with quite good ens agreement; in the N more of an oscillation above and below norm. For the start of February the usual variation breaks out, with the value of the mean slowly dropping to norm in the middle of quite a wide envelope. Not a lot of rain in the S, and that intermittent; rather more but not excessive in the N but as usual the far NW is continually wet.

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Seems to have that infamous "Bartlett high" of Winters 1988 and 1989 look about it. But if that can actually bring some pleasantly spring-like conditions in any brighter weather our way, then I can live with that. I was working on a south-facing beachside garden area for the council at the time and I remember how it often felt balmy-like in the middle of those two winters.  

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Seems to have that infamous "Bartlett high" of Winters 1988 and 1989 look about it. But if that can actually bring some pleasantly spring-like conditions in any brighter weather our way, then I can live with that. I was working on a south-facing beachside garden area for the council at the time and I remember how it often felt balmy-like in the middle of those two winters.  

A reprieve from wet is always to be welcomed, but mild in the winter never feels good to me. I want to need a big coat and hat and gloves and go walking the dog in crisp cold.

 

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Mild run of weather for the foreseeable and pleasantly dry too

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Mild run of weather for the foreseeable and pleasantly dry too

To be honest, it sounds lovely

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Mild run of weather for the foreseeable and pleasantly dry too

Is it too early for WIO post!
Looks very pleasant in the south as long as the high can steer those atlantic systems away
 

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Is it too early for WIO post!
Looks very pleasant in the south as long as the high can steer those atlantic systems away
 

Too early for the north to say WIO but IMO its game over for the south - possibly forever now.
I've been deluding myself since 2014 believing that we will get a repeat of those days in the 80's, 90's, mid 00's and 09-13 and that it was just a blip...no more, its over.
Last week showed me how far AGW has progressed.

Of the 5 stages of grief I've now reached Stage 5...its all ok.

Back to the models I'll be happy with this. Temps possibly in the low teens would feel grand with light breezes and a little sunshine. Lengthening days too as life slowly starts to wake up from its 5 week dark autumn period.
 

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Too early for the north to say WIO but IMO its game over for the south - possibly forever now.
I've been deluding myself since 2014 believing that we will get a repeat of those days in the 80's, 90's, mid 00's and 09-13 and that it was just a blip...no more, its over.
Last week showed me how far AGW has progressed.

Of the 5 stages of grief I've now reached Stage 5...its all ok.

Back to the models I'll be happy with this. Temps possibly in the low teens would feel grand with light breezes and a little sunshine. Lengthening days too as life slowly starts to wake up from its 5 week dark autumn period.
 

Is this the first 'all winter's are over' post.
 

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Is this the first 'all winter's are over' post.
 

Yes... 😁😁😁.

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I wonder if there'll be a chance of record breaking high temperatures instead this winter. Of course, this is unlikely, but, I would not be surprised at all if it did happen.