Looks like we  beat the date record today . It was 15.2c. Rostherne and Hereford 15.4c and 15.3c respectively. 
 

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What I will say is Feb 2005 proves that however unpromising, mild and boring a winter can be, cold weather and perfect setups do just randomly materialise sometimes 

 

2005 was nearly 20 years ago...a world away from where we are now.

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2005 was nearly 20 years ago...a world away from where we are now.

If one is talking about the past few years, the first two weeks of December 2022 were pretty cold over most of the UK IIRC, Steve. That is only 13 months ago. Not a classic cold spell, but it was still cold enough for a while. The 2020/21 winter wasn't that bad for cold either, at least in my neck of the woods.

Granted, last winter was poor for cold after the early-mid December '22 cold spell, but that spell did give us some pretty harsh frosts during mid December plus what turned out to be my area's only occurrence of snow last winter. I still have a photo on my smartphone of the trees across from my house being completely covered in frost, which I took on 14th December 2022.

Re 2005, it was January or February that year when I first began regularly following the model output and I do recall that for most of January and at the start of February, the models looked as bad for cold as they could have done. It was only after Andy had made his WIO comment in early February that the models suddenly all got on board with the development of a late winter cold spell which did materialise. A similar thing happened at more or less the same point in February 2006, which also came after a not great winter for cold, although rather less wet and windy than the 04/05 winter.

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If one is talking about the past few years, the first two weeks of December 2022 were pretty cold over most of the UK IIRC, Steve. .

Hi David.

Not here mate. 11th December 2022 saw heavy rain with the snow boundary 10 miles to the west.  A week of 4c temperatures followed before the warm up a week later. January 2010 was blighted with warm sectors here in SE Kent as was December 2010. The 2018 BFTE was also snowless on our little corner.

Its game up here. Fear not though you have a good few decades to go before you reach our situation.

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Hi David.

Not here mate. 11th December 2022 saw heavy rain with the snow boundary 10 miles to the west.  A week of 4c temperatures followed before the warm up a week later. January 2010 was blighted with warm sectors here in SE Kent as was December 2010. The 2018 BFTE was also snowless on our little corner.

Its game up here. Fear not though you have a good few decades to go before you reach our situation.

I do agree about 2010 in these parts nothing to write home about to be honest, I respect it was different in other parts.

 

Looks like we  beat the date record today . It was 15.2c. Rostherne and Hereford 15.4c and 15.3c respectively. 
 

Very mild, as much as I like cold and snow it’s  nice to not have the heating on for a bit maybe another chance of a date record in about a week
 

I wonder if there'll be a chance of record breaking high temperatures instead this winter. Of course, this is unlikely, but, I would not be surprised at all if it did happen.

Would be interesting to see. This winter so far has been a bore fest for the vast majority of the UK. Granted, if you live in the north of Scotland or on the hill tops of the Pennine Belt there’s been some action, but sadly most people don’t.

Model output: mild if not very mild. Can someone somewhere break a high temp record? We wait with bated breath. Game on. 

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Hi David.

Not here mate. 11th December 2022 saw heavy rain with the snow boundary 10 miles to the west.  A week of 4c temperatures followed before the warm up a week later. January 2010 was blighted with warm sectors here in SE Kent as was December 2010. The 2018 BFTE was also snowless on our little corner.

Its game up here. Fear not though you have a good few decades to go before you reach our situation.

Agree with all your posts. 

However with Feb 2018 there was no marginality involved when the spell was at its peak - if I remember correctly you were unlucky with the shower distribution? 

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Would be interesting to see. This winter so far has been a bore fest for the vast majority of the UK. Granted, if you live in the north of Scotland or on the hill tops of the Pennine Belt there’s been some action, but sadly most people don’t.

Model output: mild if not very mild. Can someone somewhere break a high temp record? We wait with bated breath. Game on. 

Yes, as you say it was a great week here last week, real winter. Thanks for highlighting that. 👍

The next week is a bit more mundane with weather from a SWly quarter and on the mild side. Hopefully there will be some pleasant conditions after the latest storm has passed. It looks especially mild in the area of the country where apparently the vast majority of people live so that’s worth noting.

Up here at the top of a mountain that no one cares about and where no one else lives it looks like alternating between mild and average or occasionally cool. Further down the line is a bit more uncertain.

Edit: For the record Feb 2018 was rather forgettable here.

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Yes, as you say it was a great week here last week, real winter. Thanks for highlighting that. 👍

The next week is a bit more mundane with weather from a SWly quarter and on the mild side. Hopefully there will be some pleasant conditions after the latest storm has passed. It looks especially mild in the area of the country where apparently the vast majority of people live so that’s worth noting.

Up here at the top of a mountain that no one cares about and where no one else lives it looks like alternating between mild and average or occasionally cool. Further down the line is a bit more uncertain.

Edit: For the record Feb 2018 was rather forgettable here.

Some might be hoping for an impromptu visit from family favourite Uncle Barty to bring the season to a premature end. All eyes on the overnight runs to see if the mild trend can bed in. 

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 😂

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Looks like we  beat the date record today . It was 15.2c. Rostherne and Hereford 15.4c and 15.3c respectively. 
 

15.6C official UK warm spot today. Shh don't tell gandalf 🤣

15.6C official UK warm spot today. Shh don't tell gandalf 🤣

Since when did the outlook period cover the following 24 hours?  

I’m sorry but you’ve completely lost the plot. I think you should go back to the beginning and try to grasp basic definitions before making daft comments.

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15.6C official UK warm spot today. Shh don't tell gandalf 🤣

🤣 certainly a mild one, a hard pill to swallow but to be expected after a huge run of above average cet months. For Pete’s sake when will it end. 

Hints of a change from 240 onwards whether we can get any worthwhile amplification to link to the Arctic is to be seen but at least the potential changes beginning to show. In the meantime expect spring to come into life!

Agree with all your posts. 

However with Feb 2018 there was no marginality involved when the spell was at its peak - if I remember correctly you were unlucky with the shower distribution? 

Hi Joe, It was a shower distribution thing on that occasion. We did get some wet snow as Emma moved in ensuring the drip drip drip slowly started from Friday evening as DP's effortlessly rose to just above zero.

Anyway, I'm over it all now...I think

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replying to ballamar’s previous post.

I saw that this morning too. Both ECM and GEFS suggesting the possibility of a return to the situation we’ve just had with low to our north east and high to our south west. More GEFS members suggesting a change around the 240 hour mark too. 

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Hints of a change from 240 onwards whether we can get any worthwhile amplification to link to the Arctic is to be seen but at least the potential changes beginning to show. In the meantime expect spring to come into life!

Yes I noticed that too. It’s still very messy in terms of possibilities in the longer term. Perhaps it’s just the normal FI chaos. I think the picture for early February may become clearer in the next couple of days. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25  

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🤣 certainly a mild one, a hard pill to swallow but to be expected after a huge run of above average cet months. For Pete’s sake when will it end. 

Not sure it will - courtesy of galloping climate change - exaggerated by this strong El Nino. However, 3 SSWs in a winter is unusual, although the effects are unpredictable. My guess is that we will get a cold snap in 2 weeks, lasting 5 days max, then continue the zonal conveyor until the 9th March and well have a late Arctic blast - too late for snow to last through the day, and another cold plunge on April 8th-12th. That’s from past experience of strong El Niño years. Winter happens late, when the Arctic cold pool gets unstable. I’m not too optimistic about future winters, and with Trump determined to drill, baby drill, the planet is done for, if it wasn’t already. My job involves specifying mitigation biodiversity planting around new development, but I have more questions than answers about what species I’ll need to be planting to cope with our new climate and what or which biodiversity this will support - because if our native plants cannot cope with the wet/ baked oscillation, our invertebrates will not either, and nw species will have to feed a new food web associated with a Mediterranean climate. Its the sheer speed of the changes that is perplexing, because plants (ESP trees)  take years (even decades) to mature. 

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Hi David.

Not here mate. 11th December 2022 saw heavy rain with the snow boundary 10 miles to the west.  A week of 4c temperatures followed before the warm up a week later. January 2010 was blighted with warm sectors here in SE Kent as was December 2010. The 2018 BFTE was also snowless on our little corner.

Its game up here. Fear not though you have a good few decades to go before you reach our situation.

And yet not that far away in East Sussex we had a week of lying snow Dec 22 after a 3 inch fall on the Sunday eve   .  Jan 10 and 2018 were also better over much of Sussex and west Kent than your corner . .You have been unlucky there  in days gone by east and south east Kent could get heavy snowfall confined sometimes to just your area  synoptics or just a changing climate maybe a blend of the two