The 12z output is generally similar to previous runs so far with very mobile conditions and copious amounts of rainfall in NW Scotland again being shown. Tuesday night is also still looking potentially very unsettled.

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I've just moved a number of posts to the OT thread in the Forum Arms.

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The 12z output is generally similar to previous runs so far with very mobile conditions and copious amounts of rainfall in NW Scotland again being shown. Tuesday night is also still looking potentially very unsettled.

Keeping an eye on that myself 

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GFS 12z op has HP directly over the British Isles or slightly to the east towards the end of the run, a little closer to what is being suggested by the MetO updates as we go into February. Not in any position to bring in proper cold admittedly, but it does show a possible end to the unsettled spell.

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Nothing of any wintry interest for the UK in the next 10 days at least by the looks of things, there after though there are tentative signs. Strat profile looks very interesting as we move through the first week of February but will the pattern  hold. We have seen two or three times this winter of a good strat pre conditioning pattern only to implode nearer the time.
The teleconnect mob on the other thread make me laugh. No sooner have the models thrown up a mid Atlantic ridge (thinking back to the phantom easterly being modelled for a couple of days last week) they smother the thread proclaiming all sorts of telleconnect forcing only to disappear just as quickly as said phantom easterly. Fruit cakes the lot of them.



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The teleconnect mob on the other thread make me laugh. No sooner have the models thrown up a mid Atlantic ridge (thinking back to the phantom easterly being modelled for a couple of days last week) they smother the thread proclaiming all sorts of telleconnect forcing only to disappear just as quickly as said phantom easterly. Fruit cakes the lot of them.



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🤣

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Pointer for Mondays runs?  Pub run showing a significant amount of more interesting perts, at least synoptically speaking with the vortex looking less stable and greater potential for polar outbreaks into FI.

WX charts as yesterday (and the day before) except that the pptn in week 2 stays in the north, for NW Scotland and the Norwegian coast. The advance of freezing weather is now back to the Baltic-Balkans line after yesterday showing an advance westwards as far west as France in week 2. Virtually the whole of Europe is above norm to some extent for week 1 (exception: Greece) and it looks as if this will continue into week 2. Coldies look east - a very large mass of ultra-cold air has appeared in week 2 east of the Urals. Will it make further progress? Well, yes it has done so, and expanded as far as Finland. Pptn in week 1 from N Britain to the S Baltic, and in week 2 from Britain as a whole across to the Alps.

GFS Op - Storm Isha off to Finland with the next set of gales on Tue night, already attracting a yellow warning for the north, under the influence of 965mb Shetland. Remaining windy with troughs and ridges until Sun 28th when a more definite HP arises E Anglia-France turning winds into the south. HP then hangs around, mostly to the SW, and by Sat 3rd there are signs of retrogression with winds turning  to the NW (but not the direct N-ly shown yesterday at this time)

ECM - similar in outline to GFS but with the HP more to the S than the SW for w/b Sun 28th, with stronger W-lies and also a trough moving through on Mon 29th.

GEFS - temps down and up and repeat finishing with agreement between ens members on a mild spell around Tue 30th. The usual variation follows, more pronounced in Scotland, the mean trending back to norm but with op and control throwing in a dip Thu 1st. A few very cold perts towards the end but balanced by very mild ones. Small amounts of rain in the S & E at different times in different runs, rather more in the NW especially in W Scotland.

[Added] A strong but disorganised jet stream close to or over Britain most of this week. Then a few days when the jet is very weak, followed by the first few days at the start of Feb with a strong jet north of Scotland, dying away on Sun 4th

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Struggling to find anything much to say about this morning's models - nothing seems to have changed since I looked a couple of days ago. High pressure to the south, all rather dull (although looking stormy again for the north on Tuesday)

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Struggling to find anything much to say about this morning's models - nothing seems to have changed since I looked a couple of days ago. High pressure to the south, all rather dull (although looking stormy again for the north on Tuesday)

If you’re after cold weather there are several humdingers in the ensemble suite, including a couple of potent northerlies (8, 26) and an easterly (23).  Overall a lot of the usual spaghetti but a decent grouping suggesting something below average along with some rather mild options.

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Looks fairly nondescript to me at the moment. I wonder if we'll see the Met Office long range switching away from a colder scenario. 

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Looks fairly nondescript to me at the moment. I wonder if we'll see the Met Office long range switching away from a colder scenario. 

The long range forecast says “towards mid-February” as the most likely time for colder weather. I noticed it also implies the northern arm of the jet remaining strong, which isn’t much of a signal for an entrenched Scandi block.

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If you’re after cold weather there are several humdingers in the ensemble suite, including a couple of potent northerlies (8, 26) and an easterly (23).  Overall a lot of the usual spaghetti but a decent grouping suggesting something below average along with some rather mild options.

Cherry-picking the odd colder permutation is a recipe for disappointment, a fool's errand.

Outlook is mild if not very mild for the foreseeable. 

 

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Cherry-picking the odd colder permutation is a recipe for disappointment, a fool's errand.

Outlook is mild if not very mild for the foreseeable. 

 

The outlook isn’t ‘mild or very mild’ if you’re making an honest, intelligent assessment of the latest output.

As for ‘cherry picking’, I made it clear that there were three cold options amongst the 30: that’s not cherry-picking, it’s commenting on the model output.

As an aside, you’re slipping: you forgot to mention your usual ‘majority of the population’….. very remiss.

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If you’re after cold weather there are several humdingers in the ensemble suite, including a couple of potent northerlies (8, 26) and an easterly (23).  Overall a lot of the usual spaghetti but a decent grouping suggesting something below average along with some rather mild options.

as you say slim pickings at the moment ! Give it a week and hopefully things will look a bit better to get some cold and snow. 38 days left of winter yet so hopefully we can get a break in Feb what is arguably the most likely for snow. Whilst we still have the odd pert showing an easterly will have hope

The outlook isn’t ‘mild or very mild’ if you’re making an honest, intelligent assessment of the latest output.

As for ‘cherry picking’, I made it clear that there were three cold options amongst the 30: that’s not cherry-picking, it’s commenting on the model output.

As an aside, you’re slipping: you forgot to mention your usual ‘majority of the population’….. very remiss.

Overnight double digit lows and temperatures by day pushing almost into low teens, and that's from the met office. So most would consider that very mild in January.

It’s deep FI and tenuous at the moment but there does look to be an increase in the number of colder options in the latter stages of the GEFS suite: https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25&runpara=0&type=6&ext=1 

No clear pattern but lots of possibilities, although to be honest I would happily settle for a settled spell of weather. Hopefully looking at the models there may be something a bit more settled by the weekend.

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The outlook isn’t ‘mild or very mild’ if you’re making an honest, intelligent assessment of the latest output.

As for ‘cherry picking’, I made it clear that there were three cold options amongst the 30: that’s not cherry-picking, it’s commenting on the model output.

As an aside, you’re slipping: you forgot to mention your usual ‘majority of the population’….. very remiss.

You also used the phrase 'a decent grouping'. I don't think 3 out of 30 qualifies as that especially when the cold (as you yourself say) could arrive from different directions.

Mild or very mild? For England and the east of Scotland the GEFS temperature forecast drops below norm for about 12 hours on Friday 26th for virtually ALL ensemble members up to Jan 31st, and for most of the peaks during that time the favoured temp is about 8C above norm. To me, that's a mild spell. After the beginning of February, all bets are off and you can have your pick of cold options, though (i) they're still in a minority for some days (ii) it's FI time anyway

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Tuesday 6 Feb - Tuesday 20 FebInto early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north. Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024


You have to laugh at the double negatives!!!

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

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Ecm 12z looks very mild tonight.  Remarkable 850s for January. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=192&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

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