Tuesday 6 Feb - Tuesday 20 FebInto early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north. Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024


You have to laugh at the double negatives!!!

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

It's just drivel. It's appallingly written with grammatical errors. Yet the Met office thinks this is OK to be published on their website.  Its very weird. 

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Signs of a zonal slowdown delayed to Feb 18th now...a signal but not a strong one...one has got to say the South will stay probably milder and the north likely to see transient cooler conditions....

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Signs of a zonal

slowdown delayed to Feb 18th now...a signal but not a strong one...one has got to say the South will stay probably milder and the north likely to see transient cooler conditions....

There was a reversal of the 10hPa zonal winds a few days ago, I don’t think another one has been modelled.

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Overnight double digit lows and temperatures by day pushing almost into low teens, and that's from the met office. So most would consider that very mild in January.

The outlook is for ‘overnight double digit lows, almost low teens by day’?  I’ve not seen that in any MetOffice forecast for the ‘outlook’ period. Can you provide the link please?

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There was a reversal of the 10hPa zonal winds a few days ago, I don’t think another one has been modelled.

That is correct. We have had two significant episodes so far, one very close to a reversal and the most recent one just dropping into a brief reversal.

The most recent one was only picked up by the ensemble suite quite late, since the trend was back to somewhere above the seasonal mean. We’ve now got another modest dip appearing but who knows whether it will intensity or fade.

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Exceptionally mild ECM ensembles 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

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The outlook is for ‘overnight double digit lows, almost low teens by day’?  I’ve not seen that in any MetOffice forecast for the ‘outlook’ period. Can you provide the link please?

The Met are showing a high of 12c and a low of 10c possibly, for tomorrow for Dartford. I guess time will tell, but it is only for tomorrow the rest of the week the overnight lows are definitely single digit territory.

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The Met are showing a high of 12c and a low of 10c possibly, for tomorrow for Dartford tomorrow. I guess time will tell, but it is only for tomorrow the rest of the week the overnight lows are definitely single digit territory.

Exactly, thank you, WW.  That’s why I asked about the ‘outlook’, because that means beyond the next few days.

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Well the Beeb London outlook is certainly very mild.  

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/2643743&ved=2ahUKEwiSstuq7PGDAxVJ2wIHHY0lCYgQFnoECBYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2yaswI27f5mkDccw1mT6LR 

Also think a good chance of a date record tmrw only 15.2c to beat.

 

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Well the Beeb London outlook is certainly very mild.  

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/2643743&ved=2ahUKEwiSstuq7PGDAxVJ2wIHHY0lCYgQFnoECBYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2yaswI27f5mkDccw1mT6LR 

Also think a good chance of a date record tmrw only 15.2c to beat.

 

I tend to find that the beeb's temperatures are often over generous and that the the Met temp's are generally closer to what we get, IME

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The outlook is for ‘overnight double digit lows, almost low teens by day’?  I’ve not seen that in any MetOffice forecast for the ‘outlook’ period. Can you provide the link please?

Widespread 12-13C across England tomorrow with even a 14C in the southwest on the met office.. more teens later in the week for the South West. 

Exceptionally mild ECM ensembles 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

How do you derive the 2m temperatures from the 850hPa ones that are on that chart? I don’t see how you can predict mild weather at the surface from those?

For example the Op for days 9 & 10 has 850hPa values over England around 9-10c but at the surface (2m) it’s mostly around 10c, so on the mild side but certainly nothing ‘exceptional’.  Plus, with high pressure influence and clearer skies overnight the minima would be close to normal.

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You also used the phrase 'a decent grouping'. I don't think 3 out of 30 qualifies as that especially when the cold (as you yourself say) could arrive from different directions.

Mild or very mild? For England and the east of Scotland the GEFS temperature forecast drops below norm for about 12 hours on Friday 26th for virtually ALL ensemble members up to Jan 31st, and for most of the peaks during that time the favoured temp is about 8C above norm. To me, that's a mild spell. After the beginning of February, all bets are off and you can have your pick of cold options, though (i) they're still in a minority for some days (ii) it's FI time anyway

Indeed so. My post was a fair summary of the outlook as it is - mild if not very mild - rather than what most would wish it to be. 

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Widespread 12-13C across England tomorrow with even a 14C in the southwest on the met office.. more teens later in the week for the South West. 

The point I made earlier, to which you responded, was talking about the outlook, not the next 3-4 days.  You even put up a link to the ECM ensemble chart showing the 850hPa values and talking about the outlook.

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Tuesday 6 Feb - Tuesday 20 FebInto early February there is a slightly increased likelihood of high pressure having greater influence on UK weather patterns. There is uncertainty in exactly where high pressure will become established but, regardless, this does increases the likelihood of drier conditions. There is also a greater than normal likelihood of winds from the north or east leading to an increased chance, compared to normal, of cold spells. Colder spells, with hazards such as snow and ice, are more likely towards mid-February, rather than earlier in the month, albeit still very low chance. Whilst a drier and colder scenario is most likely through this period, there remains a chance of milder interludes with spells of rain and strong winds, especially across the north. Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Mon 22 Jan 2024


You have to laugh at the double negatives!!!

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

What illiterate bilge from the Office. Value added: zero. 

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You also used the phrase 'a decent grouping'. I don't think 3 out of 30 qualifies as that especially when the cold (as you yourself say) could arrive from different directions.

Mild or very mild? For England and the east of Scotland the GEFS temperature forecast drops below norm for about 12 hours on Friday 26th for virtually ALL ensemble members up to Jan 31st, and for most of the peaks during that time the favoured temp is about 8C above norm. To me, that's a mild spell. After the beginning of February, all bets are off and you can have your pick of cold options, though (i) they're still in a minority for some days (ii) it's FI time anyway

That is not what I said, David.  I said three, and only three, out of 30 were showing northerlies/easterlies but that there was a ‘decent grouping’ suggesting something below average - along with some mild options.

I don’t really see why you have decided to misinterpret what I posted when it was really pretty clear? 

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How do you derive the 2m temperatures from the 850hPa ones that are on that chart? I don’t see how you can predict mild weather at the surface from those?

For example the Op for days 9 & 10 has 850hPa values over England around 9-10c but at the surface (2m) it’s mostly around 10c, so on the mild side but certainly nothing ‘exceptional’.  Plus, with high pressure influence and clearer skies overnight the minima would be close to normal.

I made no mention of 2m temps. 850s are exceptionally mild. 2m temps are just very mild. You can normally add a couple of degrees to these. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

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I made no mention of 2m temps. 850s are exceptionally mild. 2m temps are just very mild. You can normally add a couple of degrees to these. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Ah, but you did.  In case you’ve forgotten what you wrote less than 30 minutes ago, here it is:
“Overnight double digit lows and temperatures by day pushing almost into low teens, and that's from the met office. So most would consider that very mild in January.”

If you really must create an argument at least don’t change tack and deny what you wrote, eh? 🙂
 

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Ah, but you did.  In case you’ve forgotten what you wrote less than 30 minutes ago, here it is:
“Overnight double digit lows and temperatures by day pushing almost into low teens, and that's from the met office. So most would consider that very mild in January.”

If you really must create an argument at least don’t change tack and deny what you wrote, eh? 🙂
 

I think you have me mistaken for someone else lol.
 

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I think you have me mistaken for someone else lol.
 

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