In some cases, lube😳

I'll give GFS it's due, it's like a dog with a boner at the moment.

Errm, yeah! 🤣

I know what you mean, though, it is doggedly sticking with a colder outcome, even if it's dialled back somewhat in the 12z. Still nothing more than a raised eyebrow at this stage though, as the other models still aren't interested...

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Differences in the Lobe strength apparant as early as T+60h.
Look at how high the uncertainty is compared to everywhere else on the planet.
 

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P21 is hillarious in the opposite way.

The lobe barely forms at all in this one and as a result cold by 120h!
 

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Even if the fabled deep cold & widespread snow doesn’t materialise over the UK, anything to keep the angry Atlantic at arms length for as long as possible will do me fine and that’s why the GFS 12z run still pleases me, especially at this time of the year.

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Found an even better way to show it.

Strong lobe scenario (bad)

Weak lobe scenario (good)

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UK Met Global 12z still not interested. 

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Hmmmm GEFS 12z nowhere near as good . 

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Hmmmm GEFS 12z nowhere near as good . 

the 6z spoiled us - will be charts for the memory

UK Met Global 12z still not interested. 

It's not but equally it's not as flat as it has been, with the end result being a more HP dominated run. I doubt it'll move far enough to get to the GFS style solution but it's moved a little way.

I suspect the GFS op will move more in line with the UKM/ECM*/GEM tomorrow and move HP far enough south that the colder uppers miss us. Seems unlikely it'll keep going off on a cold one for much longer given it's ens and all the other models.

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No doubt ECM will come up with a Stella run this evening just to confuse the situation 

No doubt ECM will come up with a Stella run this evening just to confuse the situation 

Who knows, but it looks like GFS has given its head a wobble after the Carlsberg 06Z run. All part of the entertainment.
 

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No doubt ECM will come up with a Stella run this evening just to confuse the situation 

That you can guarantee !

Likely outcome is we remain high pressure dominated with a cold easterly waft across the south next week. 

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Errm, yeah! 🤣

I know what you mean, though, it is doggedly sticking with a colder outcome, even if it's dialled back somewhat in the 12z. Still nothing more than a raised eyebrow at this stage though, as the other models still aren't interested...

Almost a re run of what happened in mid December
GFS only model which showed a greenland block and a possible white xmas period. Persisted for days, only to flip into line with other models

Just because we get most data 4 times a day from this model, it gets too much attention 

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That you can guarantee !

Likely outcome is we remain high pressure dominated with a cold easterly waft across the south next week. 

Look like drier air and sunny one as the way it sit thst normally give is low 30s in summer. Regardless the surface temps the heating costs will be lower due to more stronger Feb  solar input for indoors to warm up so heating on 1 or 2 hrs in evening only.  

Looks like game over already for the Easterly unfortunately. A shame but looks like another Winter will pass us by without a proper Easterly.

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ECM says no. Looks like GFS needs a reboot.
 

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ECM says no. Looks like GFS needs a reboot.
 

No to who? The corresponding 12Z EC chart from yesterday or the other NWP from today. IMO it has moved a decent way towards the easterly solution and at 240 it is attempting a proper push with heights to the NE - a discernible change from the 12Z chart yesterday.
No forecast from me ~ with the current flux that is next to impossible. 

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The euro's backtracking slightly towards the gfs in the 72 - 120 time frame. Could not say which way this will go but would not be at all surprised to see a blended solution with the euro's leaning more towards the gfs than the other way round.
What a cracking 06z run though eh. Shame could not get excited by it due to what the Euro's were showing.

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Differences in the Lobe strength apparant as early as T+60h.
Look at how high the uncertainty is compared to everywhere else on the planet.
 

If you watch Aiden McGivern on the Meto 10 day trend, he seems to suggest that it's a low in the Med that's the driving force for the cold, with its placement being the key.

https://fb.watch/iqwCio_JcS/ 

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Looks like game over already for the Easterly unfortunately. A shame but looks like another Winter will pass us by without a proper Easterly.

Even if this one fails (as is likely) there is still plenty of winter left.

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