GFS 6Z is heading back towards hot spell territory Ally.

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Still in Murray Walker territory, but of course the chance of a warm or hot spell of weather in the southern half of the UK during the spring / summer is much greater (especially these days) than that of a cold one in the winter months.

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Yes good to see, but as Brian says models are really struggling for next week could still go either way. Still a huge spread of outcomes possible. 

 

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If it does happen, it will probably be in the form of a brief plume quickly swept away by frontal systems. A case of making the most of it while you can. I notice that with these plume events, they often move further east closer to the time, in a similar way to how snow events move further north in the Winter. So by the time it arrives, it's an 'all counties east of London affair' for about 24 hours.

I'll try to be less pessimistic this year! 

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Not sure I'm seeing anything too exciting/prolonged heat wise but 2-4 days of noticeably above average looks likely, biased towards the Southern half of the country, with East best. Usual question mark about cloud amounts but 25-27c looks readily achievable, maybe a touch more if there's a fair bit of sun given how dry the ground is at the moment.

Seems to be a fairly common occurrence IMBY at least over recent years - brief shots of hot air giving 2-4 days of very warm or hot weather before cooler air moves back in from the West. 

One thing I noticed IMBY is ECM op shows some showery rain Sunday into Monday - amounts to around 18mm which would be very welcome and with an uptick in cape at the same time suggests some fairly heavy downpours. 

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"Three fine days and a thunderstorm" - according to BBC blog first noted by George II, though I've also seen it attributed to Queen Henrietta Maria, wife of Charles I. So nothing new there.

If anything along the South Coast less frequent now than formerly - see NMA's comment in the thunderstorm thread.

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Why struggling when in the past once again newspapers, teletext, Ceefax and TV forecasters always come up without struggling? They didn't have those stuff in the past but very often correct when any weather event arrive.  No need for the models to struggle just because we getting normal May warmth.

WX summary looks like yesterday The promised warmth no more than flirts with the SE in week 1 (despite Bran's post above) and retreats back to S France in week 2 as cooler weather from the NE spreads across Europe (except the Med) from the NE. Pleasant enough in most parts this week but no great heat wave confirmed by TV forecast this morning. Rainfall pattern similar too Week 1, as yesterday, has rain in the N Atlantic also affecting western Britain, and in the Baltic; week 2 has heavy rain Ireland - England - Alps (esp heavy there) - Balkans with some patches remaining over the Baltic though week 2 moves the rain SE-wards and omits Ireland. 

Jet : starts off like yesterday with a flow N of Scotland to Sun 15th then bits and pieces near S England to Tue 24th as loops on the Atlantic break up  but the stronger stream noted at the end now more of a NW-ly from N Ireland down to SE England (yesterday it was along the Channel)

GFS Op : currently zonal W-lies (FAX shows fronts embedded for NW Scotland) replaced by HP over N Sea 1020mb Sun 15th drifting slowly NE-wards, giving S-lies for a time  before LP moves towards Rockall  about Wed 18th and shifts wind into SW. Then new HP on Atlantic Sun 22nd but staying out to the W allowing first N-lies over UK and then LP over Iceland moves to N Sea 995 mb Thu 26th

GEFS : bump of warm temps (v warm in SE) in the S Tue 17th soon back to norm or a little above for the rest of the period. More rain than forecast previously starting at that time, and quite heavy sometimes.

ECM : resembles GFS though (12z at time of posting)the LP showing signs of moving to the N Sea well before the 26th, perhaps as early as 21st

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I do not recall Ceefax etc giving weather forecasts for more than a few days  out.  Also, they were very often wrong too.

 

I rtemeber going to a Pride event in a London Park in the 90's. Tiny shorts and next to no top.  The forecast was for hot sunshine.  I was frozen to death almost.

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Looks like we should finally get some decent rainfall totals later next week after the '20c heatwave' on Monday/Tuesday.

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After Sundays flirt with a thunderstorm it looks decidedly dry for the foreseeable for large swathes of the south.

Still no signs of proper heat though. 

WX Summary charts still showing warmth sticking the other side of the Channel - a touch of it for the SE this week and for S Ireland next week, and N Europe in general cooling somewhat after a plume reaches the Low Countries this week. Patches of rainy weather scattered across Europe week 1, drier again over Britain and Denmark week 2 with an encircling band of wetter weather. BBC suggesting thunderstorms from across the Channel on Sat night, but  not featuring in the MetO forecast.

Jet starts out as previously with flow near N Scotland , breaking up into loops with these affecting England from Wed 18th to a greater extent than yesterday then dying away with something from the NW appearing Sat 28th.

GFS Op shows zonal W-lies to the weekend when HP 1020 mb N Sea being pushed by LP off SW Ireland and suggestion of weak troughs in the SE-lies resulting. The LP itself moving steadily up the W Coast and by Sat 21st is 995mb off Norway with new HP moving up from the SW and covering all British Isles by Wed 25th and sticking there until at the very end LP from the NW pushes it aside

GEFS is warm to start with esp in SE and after a week mean temp returns to norm or a little above in the SW. Small amounts of rain (and again more in the NW) from Tue 17th, and rather more in different ens members that would be expected from the Op

ECM similar to GFS but LP standing a bit further off from the W Coast

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I see UKV suggesting fairly heavy showery stuff overnight Saturday in to Sunday here:-

 

Would definitely be welcome if it happens. 

 

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I’ve been watching the developments of this tough over the last couple of days. The forecast has just started mentioning the prospect of heavy thundery showers during Saturday evening. I will be surprised if the system effects this far west. I’d say Exeter eastwards could have some heavy showers and thunderstorms.. Amazing how the details are changing all the time.

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Not as extensive for your neck of the woods but seems to be an initial showery push over the west country 17:00ish on UKV, before things develop and drift NE and into more central and eastern southern parts during the latter part of Saturday and in to Sunday:-

 

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Looking like the heatwave has been kicked into the long grass.

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To be fair, going by the Met Office thresholds, I am not sure it ever was reliably expected to happen? A few charts here and there, some in consecutive runs, showed the mid to high twenties for a day or two before deflecting east. It has occurred twice in the output now with the warmth moderating or not really making it to the UK.

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Yes similar to what happens with the mythical cold spells in the Winter. My conclusion is that the models are just very bad!

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According to Jiries, useless third world forecast models and we be better off looking at Ceefax. 

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Well if that's still a thing! We'd probably be no worse off basing longer range forecasts on that 😂

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Next week doesn't look too bad to me. Not a 147 clearance by any means but there should be a decent amount of sunshine around and I remain unconvinced about rain totals in much of the south / south east.

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Yes, no real improvement in post 10 day forecasts for sure. Just better graphics 

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The largely dry spell in the south has gone on for weeks and weeks now. Tonight’s showers look rather hit and miss, then back to the dryness for the foreseeable future.
What a pleasant change from last years freezing wet spring.

WX Summary charts put the summer on hold; a bit of warmth for the SE in week 1 but then a push of warmer weather northwards over Ukraine is compensated for by a colder plunge down to the S of France with the Uk on the fringe of this. Rain over Britain through France week 1, moving further E in week 2 though not bone dry here as shown yesterday

Jet not very active; bits and pieces arising from the break-up of loops affecting the UK from time to time, most noticeably around Fri 20th.

GFS; current Hp moving to the N Sea and allowing a trough (BBC & FAX accentuate this) to run N up to Scotland early next week. LP off the W coast slowly moving N and filling by Sat 21st with winds for UK mostly SW-ly. New HP from Atlantic moving NE to dominate Scotland 1025 mb Fri 27th before retreating NW-wards and all the time allowing a light N-ly affecting the E Coast.

GEFS; warm in SE to Sat 21st, only just above norm in N at this time, then mean back to norm though op & control much colder around Wed 25th, rain on and off for most of the time with one or two big spikes e.g. Thu 19th for the SE, Tue 17th for the NE

ECM; similar to GFS though slower to develop HP over Scotland from Mon 23rd

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As a gardener, I feel that this year's dryness is over-compensating for last year; farmers beginning to worry about spring-sown crops too

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