WX Summary temps show N-ward and S-ward movements, somewhat different from yesterday. Week1, warm moving N up the N Sea, cool moving S W of Ireland and also W Russia; week 2, all a bit further E, with cool S-wards over UK & France and E of Urals, warm N-wards over Poland. Rain week 1 mostly Scotland and Germany; week 2 England & France, & some E Europe, any dryness Baltic states and near Iceland.
GFS Op - trough as offshoot of Atlantic depression moving N over UK (in passing, I note that this trough which was a predicted minor feature a week ago has turned out much more active). The main Atlantic depression filling slowly and drifting NE-wards, first generating SW-lies for Britain, eventually sitting over Scotland 995mb Mon 23rd with trough S-wards to England. Then it drifts S-wards with a well-defined centre over Belgium 1005mb Fri 27th and ridge of HP Ireland - Scotland - Norway, with E-lies for England. After that it moves W-wards to the Atlantic Tue 30th, only to allow a much deeper depression off Norway to start sending NW-lies across all Britain by Wed 1st.
GEFS - temps moving slowly from warm in the SE to near norm by Mon 23rd (control rather cool later on), some definite spikes for Thu 19th & Sat 21st but a little rain likely at other times. Never really warm outside C/E England, and more rain generally in Scotland with the spikes a couple of days earlier
ECM - differs from GFS after 23rd with the LP sliding away SE-wards to Poland while a N-S ridge of HP appears off W Ireland Thu 26th but this allows N-lies to affect the E Coast of Britain - could be quite cool there