Next week is looking nasty.

Not for all that jingoistic Jubilee gubbins? Oh no... how awful...

So will you be giving back that extra day's holiday, then? I sure you wouldn't want to benefit from something you don't believe in:)

[shrugs] work is closed, as are almost all my clients; I'll never say no to a day off

I shan't be going to any flagwaving parties, though. It all seems a bit manufactured and nationalist

Not sure that was proper northern blocking though, a little bit at the start but most of the month was UK high or mid-atlantic high. Last April/May was the last time I think we had a proper northern blocking setup.

WX temp summary; the clear picture of week 1 with a line mid-France - Alps - Ukraine dividing cool to the N and war/hot to the S gets mixed up in week 2. The warmth advances on two fronts, one to Ireland and England (but not Scotland) and the other much warmer all the way up to Finland. In between, Germany remains cold. Rain mainly over the continent; week 1 Balkans - Poland - White Sea and week 2 Germany - Baltic - W Russia with some in N Spain and Alps. Britain looking quite dry, except a bit in the NW at first.

Jet more intense than forecast yesterday across Scotland until the weekend decaying into casual streaks down the N Sea. It re-visits Scotland briefly around Mon 6th but otherwise absent around Britain.

GFS Op - current trough retreating N-wards with W/NW winds until Friday 27th. Then HP establishes over Britain (centre 1030mb S England) though with some onshore winds down the N Sea, the HP only slowly moving NW-wards until by Fri 3rd it's moved away far enough to allow LP over Germany to set up E-lies for the S. Then the HP returns from the W to cover Britain again by Thu 9th. Pressure is much higher in the region of Britain than forecast yesterday.

GEFS - temps dropping off to a low point around Fri 27th; then a steady rise in mean temp back to and eventually above seasonal norm from about Sun 5th. Different from what was shown yesterday as cool period absent and op & control warmer esp at end of period. Small amount of rain from time to time; the profile looks showery. The far SW is the place to be, warmer and almost no rain.

ECM - much less promising than GFS. Firstly the HP from Friday 27th is situated further NW with more of a drift off the N Sea; then from Tue 31st pressure drops over UK and the synoptics look like yesterday's GFS. By Wed 1st there is a broad trough from the Atlantic SW of Ireland to Norway persisting to end-of -run Fri 3rd though by then pressure is beginning to rise from the S.

Looks alright to me in terms of usable weather. From later this week onwards, mostly dominated by high pressure - albeit with a cool airmass feed for most of the time so temps will be suppressed. High meandering from over the UK to over the GIN Sea then into a huge Scandi/North Atlantic, before GFS tries to split it by launching a low over mainland Europe northwards.

Winds from NNW to E mostly, which is better for the western side of the country.

I'm sure plenty will change between now and then, though.

Much better GFS 6z.  High pressure building in right over the UK. I find the GFS 6z does tend to play it's own tune though so best wait until the 12s before opening the champagne. 

It'll cover the Jubilee weekend, just about, but goes off after that

Think the 0z was better, certainly in the latter stages.

The trend over the last 4/5 GFS runs, though, has been decent.

Same can't be said of the ECM, which sets up blocking to the NW, blocking to the SE, and the UK being slap in the middle of Atlantic low highway.

A bold prediction indeed given the vagaries of the UK climate.

BBC WFTWA last night presented a stark difference for a week's time between GFS (northern blocking, dry, NE-ly winds affecting N Sea coasts) and ECM (large depression to the SW, S-ly winds, a lot of rain often heavy). Both models seem to have stepped back from their more extreme positions this morning but there is still a difference.

WX summary (based on GFS) much as it was yesterday: the clear picture of week 1 with a line mid-France - Alps - Ukraine dividing cool to the N and war/hot to the S gets mixed up in week 2. The warmth advances on two fronts, one to Ireland and England (but not Scotland) and the other much warmer all the way up to Finland [not quite as far in today's chart]. In between, Germany remains cold. Rain mainly over the continent; week 1 Balkans - Poland - White Sea and week 2 Germany - Baltic - W Russia with some in N Spain and Alps. Britain looking quite dry, except a bit in the NW at first.[this morning a bit further E week 1 and further SE Week2; Britain not quite as dry and the rain never really leaves NW Scotland]

GFS Op: current LP N of Britain with W/NW winds moves to Baltic with HP 1030mb N Ireland Sat 28th. The HP drifts N-wards to leave Britain in a col between LPs Denmark and Portugal (the former is closer, so expect NE-lies); then a new HP area arising in the W and moving to cover all Britain Sun 5th. It lasts for a few days, enough for the Jubilee weekend, before withdrawing to the SW and an area of LP near Iceland brings in NW-lies.

GEFS: although mild/warm in S at firstt, mean temps generally drop to cool Mon 30th, back to norm Fri 3rd and staying there, with the usual outliers (control is a cold one). Not much rain at first, a little more probable later on esp in NW

ECM: similar to GFS until Mon 30th; but then instead of a col, the two LPs over Denmark and Portugal join forces to give general low pressure; and the LP to the SW becomes dominant 1005mb Cornwall Thu 2nd with S/SE winds (not as large and deep as shown by BBC). It moves N to Scotland Sat 4th with broad trough all the way down to the Med, HP staying in mid-Atlantic

My view of the charts is more optimistic than this. Northern blocking in both the big models at first, sure, but for the Jubilee weekend GFS suggests sunny, dry, hot in the sun and cool out of it; ECM fairly warm in the S, cooler in N, but watch out for showers.

Yes yesterday's GFS 6z was indeed leading us up the garden path as it often does.  Outlook is poor.

Generally after today's rain it looks pretty decent for the next week to 10 days to me - never especially warm but with a good amount of sunshine around.

Actually the lack of warmth is starting to be noticeable. It looks like 20-21C is about the best we can hope for in the foreseeable future. If my memory is correct, in most years recently by the beginning of June we have had a few 25C+ days. AFAIK we have only reached 25C once so far this year (17 May hit 27.5C) and I can't see that being beaten for a good while.

I believe you're right. I know for some people 'baking heat' is 21C (like for my sister in Exeter). It's a struggle to get more than 21C though this year.

Even in the local rag the headline Hot Hot Hot is no more than the high teens this year as I've hammered in from time to time on TWO.

It's only 6C warmer here than Reykjavik and it's almost June. The modelled warmth seems to get shunted into the future each day.

No real heat yet, but here at least consistently warm 20c most days which is unusual for May. The CET will likely be in the top 10 warmest ever.

The temp through May has been remarkably stable, with daily maxes sticking within a narrow band, and no cool nights. It's reflected in the CET, which is 1.7c above the 30-year average despite having no real warmth to speak of. 

I hope this isn't the story for the whole summer. We've had two so called hot spells now kicked out to the ether. The next few days on Look East last night showed a maximum of just 12C for Sunday.

Truly awful output summer definitely on hold for at least 10 days.