WX summary temps - any heat wave deferred for a week, while the Atlantic holds sway. In week 2, a push of warm air from Spain NE-wards across France, and on to Sweden, catching England as it goes. The cold pool over C Europe also gets displaced further E-wards. Rainfall pattern matches this, mostly in week 1 from Scotland across to Baltic (Oban was mentioned on BBC last night as due to get 100mm in the next three days), week 2 splits to NW Scotland separated by dry area from fragments over E Russia. But a couple of wet 'blobs' over N France/S England hint at some local thunderstorms.
Jet - current streak across Scotland breaking up into loops by the weekend and these generally N of Britain; it's back again around Sun 22nd but weaker.
GFS Op - LP currently to NW moving across N of Scotland with some deepening at times until it drops into Sweden Sat 14th with pressure rise over Britain 1025mb E Coast Sun 15th and steady flow of air from well S or SW over the following week while pressure remains high (flies in ointment - LP still close to NW Scotland and what looks like a small thundery LP Sat 21st in the Channel) . The Hp at end of run Wed 25th has declined to a narrow ridge N Ireland - Alps, with SE-lies and LP sitting off to the SW on one side and NW-lies down the N Sea on the other.
GEFS - in the S temps near norm to Sun 15th after which a warm/v warm week (op & control lower temps than most runs). Back to norm Wed 25th but lots of variation in ens members by then. Little rain until a cluster from Sun 22nd. Temp profiles similar in N (a little cooler to Sun 15th). Rain profile for the NE as in the S but a lot of rain in week 1 for the NW.
ECM synoptics much like GFS, though perhaps LP a bit closer to W Ireland from Sun 15th. (only 12z runs from yesterday available after that date at time of posting) EDIT re-visited now today's 0z available and LP definitely closer, also close to NW Scotland
Edited by user
09 May 2022 06:55:59
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