May wasn't good but April was just about bone dry here last year 

Warm and unsettled going forward. Showers will be hit and miss but there are enough showery spells forecast over the next week for most parts to get a decent amount of rain.

Probably not enough to wipe out the deficit but enough to hold off drought fears. 

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WX summary temps showing more warmth creeping up the eastern side of the UK in week 1 but as noted yesterday, in week 2, a surge in warmth for eastern Europe compensated by cooler conditions for western Europe all the way from N Norway (still a 0C isotherm there) moving down to the Alps and almost the Pyrenees. For the optimists, Spain remains hot and could provide a reservoir for warmer weather in subsequent weeks. Some rain in week 1 for Britain and to a lesser extent W Europe; this switches round in week 2; W Russia having a wet spell throughout and the driest weather to be found in the Baltic and the Med.

Jet showing some limited streaks mainly from the S this week as meanders on the Atlantic decay and move E-wards; next week still patchy but more directly from the west.

GFS showing HP sitting off towards Norway and more is made of a thundery trough moving N-wards than previously. The controlling LP on the Atlantic continues to bring warm air N-wards with more troughs until later this week but over the weekend any HP subsides and the LP crosses Scotland, looking rather flabby, but enough to switch winds from SW/W to NW/N. New HP moving up from the SW Fri 27th, looks promising at first, but moves on and by Tue 31st British weather dictated by shallow LP covering most of W Europe with light E-lies.

GEFS showing a warm/hot SE to Sat 21st then mean temp dropping back to norm with quite a lot of variation in ens members setting in a few days later. Op is back to warm/hot from Sat 28th but not the control. Rain suggested for most days but esp heavy Mon 16th and Sat 21st. Other parts of UK miss out on the early warmth and for NI & Scottish Lowlands there is significantly more rain, enough so that individual days don't stand out (but Inverness not as wet as S Scotland)

ECM resembles GFS until the weekend when the LP moves to the E on a track further N and quite differently the new HP develops sooner and develops as ridge S from Iceland with N-lies for the E coast by Wed 25th (though yesterday's 12z ECM treated the HP differently again with this HP developing as the common extension of the Azores high NE-wards)

 

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This could be the start of the downward slide into a soggy summer, as my gut has been telling me. I really hope not, but I'm not holding my breath!

That has been my gut feeling for quite a while, especially given the lack of rain during this year so far with the exception of February. That rainfall deficit has to be made up at some point in time and my fear is that this may well happen during those summer months when we don't really want it (due to the fact that I like a lot of people, would much rather be seeing a decent summer which is warm (I wouldn't like it to be too hot), sunny and fairly dry).

On the other hand, I also wouldn't like to be seeing any "summer is over" posts appearing here this early in the season before we have even gone into the meteorological summer as you just never know what might happen at the end of the day.

The latest model output does after all, have a possible build of high pressure coming up later on this month and if that happens, you can then therefore never tell how long that might go on for.

 

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I'm inclined to agree. The GFS particularly looks pretty pants and is setting up that 2008/2012 type pattern as we head towards the end of May.

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I see the prophets of doom are out today

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The GFS 6z is a massive unsettled outlier so one for the bin methinks. The outlook seems very average to me maybe with the outside chance of it getting very hot.

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No doom here.

The charts are looking pretty dank for the next few weeks, nothing unusual to see, but just think that this is as ever nature's way of balancing out the long dry spell.

That's why I never worry about so called drought and water shortage, as it will always recover in this country and invariably get a complete about turn in fortunes.

Not saying we will have a deluge summer, but it is just as possible that we will as to a good one.

No-one knows, in truth.

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Some ECM ensembles going exceptionally hot.

 

 

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I just hope they're worng. The reason they've crawled out of the woodwork is beacuse the nice weather we've had earlier has parallels with bad summers like 2007, 2008 and 2012.

The good news as some say you can't rely on pattern matching all the time.

Now I hope that is correct now.

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Personally, I am an advocate of pattern matching, but I accept its no more reliable than anything else.

But I do feel pattern matching earlier seasonal conditions does have some merit.

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Interesting to see how much rain falls this week. ECM 12z for first 144 hours.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhr.aspx?run=12&charthour=18&chartname=total_precip_uk&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20total

 

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Nice early season weather in 1976, 1989, 1995, 2018… so no correlation essentially. 

Best to enjoy warm weather when it’s here and not worry overly about the inevitable bad spells we’ll get at some point. 

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High pressure trying to build in but failing on most models. Probably a frustrating spell of weather coming up. 

 

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WX Summary temps show N-ward and S-ward movements, somewhat different from yesterday. Week1, warm moving N up the N Sea, cool moving S W of Ireland and also W Russia; week 2, all a bit further E, with cool S-wards over UK & France and E of Urals, warm N-wards over Poland. Rain week 1 mostly Scotland and Germany; week 2 England & France, & some E Europe, any dryness Baltic states and near Iceland.

GFS Op - trough as offshoot of Atlantic depression moving N over UK (in passing, I note that this trough which was a predicted minor feature a week ago has turned out much more active). The main Atlantic depression filling slowly and drifting NE-wards, first generating SW-lies for Britain, eventually sitting over Scotland 995mb Mon 23rd with trough S-wards to England. Then it drifts S-wards with a well-defined centre over Belgium 1005mb Fri 27th and ridge of HP Ireland - Scotland - Norway, with E-lies for England. After that it moves W-wards to the Atlantic Tue 30th, only to allow a much deeper depression off Norway to start sending NW-lies across all Britain by Wed 1st.

GEFS - temps moving slowly from warm in the SE to near norm by Mon 23rd (control rather cool later on), some definite spikes for Thu 19th & Sat 21st but a little rain likely at other times. Never really warm outside C/E England, and more rain generally in Scotland with the spikes a couple of days earlier

ECM - differs from GFS after 23rd with the LP sliding away SE-wards to Poland while a N-S ridge of HP appears off W Ireland Thu 26th but this allows N-lies to affect the E Coast of Britain - could be quite cool there

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Outlook starting to look very average now for the rest of May (not that it's worth looking beyond about 5 days with these models) and still no sign of any notable hot temperatures.

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Quick heads up.... 

MOGREPS-G data tables (same format as the GEFS ones) are now available here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/mogreps-tables.aspx

MOGREPS-G European grid custom graph plotter is here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/mogreps-graphs.aspx

 

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WX summary temps still showing some warm air moving up across E England this week and correspondingly colder S-wards over W Russia, but week 2 in contrast to yesterday's chart has cancelled the N-S oscillation and now prefers a general advance of warmth from the S with the 14C isotherm (day-night average) following the coast of W Europe from Brittany to Estonia, There's still some very cold weather over Iceland which could descend ...  Pptn mainly UK-Germany week 1, with some further E; in week 2 mainly France and the Alps.

Jet - some bits and pieces of decaying loops off the Atlantic streaming NE-wards near UK from time to time, mostly near the S Coast this week, near Scotland next week. Nothing really definite.

GFS Op - LP off SW Ireland moving N and filling to be 1000mb over Scotland/N England Sat 21st, but unlike yesterday then moving back to Atlantic leaving UK in slack (more low than high) pressure until Sat 28th when HP has come up from SW to cover Britain 1025mb. Then the charts for Sun 29th and subsequent days look exactly like the current ones - I needed to double-check that I'd actually clicked on!

GEFS - Any warmth in the SE declines over the next two or three days and the mean of ens members for the whole country then close to or a little above norm for the forecast period; op and control amongst the warmer members for week 2. Rain at any time, small amounts in the S, rather more in the N esp the NW 

ECM (12z mostly - I've got to make an early start this morning and shan't wait for the full download of the 0z. The same will apply tomorrow) This model is still moving the LP on from Scotland into the N Sea instead of retreating to the Atlantic, so introducing N-lies briefly; but then compensates by developing the HP from the SW sooner, by about Thu 26th.

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It feels like we are in a bit of a rinse and repeat mode. Shallow high pressures allowing short spells of drier, warm weather (especially in eastern parts) followed by Atlantic lows pushing north west bringing rain, showers and fresher temperatures. This is very generalised of course. No signs of a long settled spell for the foreseeable. What is interesting is how long the WX charts have shown much of Western Europe red and Eastern Europe blue in terms of temperature anomalies. Probably since February!?

I wonder if this is the general pattern for the summer? If so, it will allow increasingly hot weather to push into Spain and France from time to time which then brings the likelihood of brief hot plumes over the UK.  

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I've heard a long term prognosis for the summer and it's a nice June and July and a somewhat poor August. That's not unusual.

After all a 100 years ago or more and August was percieved almost as an autumn month.

 

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You sure about this?

Traditional summer was 21st June to 21st Sept. August has been either joint warmest or second warmest month on average for as long as I can remember - was it any different 100/200 years ago?

 

I think, though, that Augusts have been the worst-performing summer month since 2003 (in terms of deviation from average temp/sun/rain days)

 

 

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I think all the time heights remain low off to the north and west of the UK, such as what the models are showing, then we are in a good shout of picking up some Summer-like weather on a regular basis (especially more so towards the South East). It's when there is a northern blocking set up thus forcing the jet stream and their associated low pressures to track further south and we end up with a soggy set up that usually lasts for weeks on end. When I start seeing that kind of pattern show up on the outputs then that's when my heart sink.

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WX summary temps - week 1 with some good warmth pushing N almost to Denmark but just missing even SE England, also cooler air hanging back over W Russia. Week 2, more evenly distributed with reasonable warmth from England all the way across to the Baltic. Patchy rain across Europe exc Med week 1, on the Atlantic incl NW Scotland (again!) and Pyrenees - Alps week 2 with S England rather dry

GFS Op - current LP W of Ireland  moving to and fro in a N-S direction between its present position and E of Iceland. not drifting across Scotland as yesterday but does manage to throw a trough S-wards Sat 28th before rise of pressure from SW pushes it back to the Atlantic only affecting NW fringes. HP itself peaks at 1025mb S England Wed 1st though a suggestion of something thundery from the S Fri 3rd

GEFS - temps up and down for a few days in the S before settling to a couple of degrees above norm; some local spikes of pptn this week, and then only sporadic and small amounts of rain; the NW staying closer to norm throughout with more rain but more evenly distributed. NE temp profile like NW but rain like SE; SW the other way round.

ECM - more of a zonal flow developing after 22nd and HP well established over UK by Thu 26th

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Indeed, it's a pattern that I've known for a long time. I can remember from my school days (many years ago) being confined to the classroom and sitting exams in lovely sunny, hot weather, and then when term ended towards the end of July the weather would deteriorate to unsettled and cool for the summer holidays.  Most frustrating, it was.

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