It feels like we are in a bit of a rinse and repeat mode. Shallow high pressures allowing short spells of drier, warm weather (especially in eastern parts) followed by Atlantic lows pushing north west bringing rain, showers and fresher temperatures. This is very generalised of course. No signs of a long settled spell for the foreseeable. What is interesting is how long the WX charts have shown much of Western Europe red and Eastern Europe blue in terms of temperature anomalies. Probably since February!?

I wonder if this is the general pattern for the summer? If so, it will allow increasingly hot weather to push into Spain and France from time to time which then brings the likelihood of brief hot plumes over the UK.  

I've heard a long term prognosis for the summer and it's a nice June and July and a somewhat poor August. That's not unusual.

After all a 100 years ago or more and August was percieved almost as an autumn month.

 

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I've heard a long term prognosis for the summer and it's a nice June and July and a somewhat poor August. That's not unusual.

After all a 100 years ago or more and August was percieved almost as an autumn month.

 

 

You sure about this?

Traditional summer was 21st June to 21st Sept. August has been either joint warmest or second warmest month on average for as long as I can remember - was it any different 100/200 years ago?

 

I think, though, that Augusts have been the worst-performing summer month since 2003 (in terms of deviation from average temp/sun/rain days)

 

 

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It feels like we are in a bit of a rinse and repeat mode. Shallow high pressures allowing short spells of drier, warm weather (especially in eastern parts) followed by Atlantic lows pushing north west bringing rain, showers and fresher temperatures. This is very generalised of course. No signs of a long settled spell for the foreseeable. What is interesting is how long the WX charts have shown much of Western Europe red and Eastern Europe blue in terms of temperature anomalies. Probably since February!?

I wonder if this is the general pattern for the summer? If so, it will allow increasingly hot weather to push into Spain and France from time to time which then brings the likelihood of brief hot plumes over the UK.  

I think all the time heights remain low off to the north and west of the UK, such as what the models are showing, then we are in a good shout of picking up some Summer-like weather on a regular basis (especially more so towards the South East). It's when there is a northern blocking set up thus forcing the jet stream and their associated low pressures to track further south and we end up with a soggy set up that usually lasts for weeks on end. When I start seeing that kind of pattern show up on the outputs then that's when my heart sink.

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WX summary temps - week 1 with some good warmth pushing N almost to Denmark but just missing even SE England, also cooler air hanging back over W Russia. Week 2, more evenly distributed with reasonable warmth from England all the way across to the Baltic. Patchy rain across Europe exc Med week 1, on the Atlantic incl NW Scotland (again!) and Pyrenees - Alps week 2 with S England rather dry

GFS Op - current LP W of Ireland  moving to and fro in a N-S direction between its present position and E of Iceland. not drifting across Scotland as yesterday but does manage to throw a trough S-wards Sat 28th before rise of pressure from SW pushes it back to the Atlantic only affecting NW fringes. HP itself peaks at 1025mb S England Wed 1st though a suggestion of something thundery from the S Fri 3rd

GEFS - temps up and down for a few days in the S before settling to a couple of degrees above norm; some local spikes of pptn this week, and then only sporadic and small amounts of rain; the NW staying closer to norm throughout with more rain but more evenly distributed. NE temp profile like NW but rain like SE; SW the other way round.

ECM - more of a zonal flow developing after 22nd and HP well established over UK by Thu 26th

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I've heard a long term prognosis for the summer and it's a nice June and July and a somewhat poor August. That's not unusual.

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Indeed, it's a pattern that I've known for a long time. I can remember from my school days (many years ago) being confined to the classroom and sitting exams in lovely sunny, hot weather, and then when term ended towards the end of July the weather would deteriorate to unsettled and cool for the summer holidays.  Most frustrating, it was.

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You sure about this?

Traditional summer was 21st June to 21st Sept. August has been either joint warmest or second warmest month on average for as long as I can remember - was it any different 100/200 years ago?

 

I think, though, that Augusts have been the worst-performing summer month since 2003 (in terms of deviation from average temp/sun/rain days)

 

Meteorologically and climatically August has always been a summer month - What I was referring to was how August was perceived pastorally and before the 14-18 War in the countryside it was seen as a borderline autumn month.

Some of this perception I think derived from the catastrophic weather of August 1912. August 1912 still hold the record for "The bad threes".

Those were.

1. The coldest month ever.


2. The wettest month ever.


3. The dullest month ever.

 

No month before or since has ever held all 3 of these bad records. The rainfall was colossal and culminated in the disastrous flooding of Norwich city centre following a downpour which dropped 200mm of rain in less than 24 hours.

The floodline on a building where the rivers Yare and Wensum meet in the middle of Norwich show a plaque at least 8 feet above my head and I stand 6foot 2 inches tall - So you can get an idea of what it was like.

What was even worse was the flooding was so violent that several buildings collapsed into the rivers killing 6 people.

I've read several times what August 1912 was like, and no way would I want to live through anything like that ever.

 

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Not sure I've ever seen 34C in Southern England on a chart for the very start of June before. (Or indeed 36C in France in May as the chart 2 days before shows).

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The north/ south split continues to be shown in most output. Potentially very warm for Jubilee week in the south, sniffs of some true continental heat even… while other parts suffer much cooler and wetter conditions.

Temp summary charts looking rather like the see-saw of a couple of days ago, rather than yesterday's overall improvement. Week1, warmth flirting with England and the N Sea coastal countries while cooler air extends S-wards over W Russia; week 2, W Russia warms up a bit while cooler air pushes S-wards down the N Sea. Rain - week 1 generally in a band across N Europe incl UK; week 2 mostly over C Europe (Germany to Belarus and Sweden to Balkans, E coast of UK catching the edge of this, drier in SW.

Jet fragmented around the UK to Tue 23rd, then a more definite W-ly Tue 30th becoming NW-ly  before fading away. 

GFS Op shows current LP off W Ireland moving N then NE to Faeroes by Mon 23rd, and sticking there, sometimes stronger, sometimes weaker, sometimes pushing a trough S-ward into UK esp Tue 24th and Sun 29th. HP then develops over Rockall, again moving around a little, but generating NE-lies for England esp noticeable Tue 31st

GEFS for the S has temps returning to norm, then warm around 23rd, the mean near norm to Sat 4th but with the Op as one of the cooler members and control as one of the warmer ones. Rain spikes tomorrow, in many ens members Tue 24th, small amounts thereafter. In the N, slightly cooler (no warm bump on 23rd) and rain more generally from Sun 21st onwards with significant amounts in NW

ECM resembles GFS except that the trough on Sun 29th is a separate development from the LP to the N, and is positioned over W Ireland

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Heatwave Alert on the 12z gfs Op
🔥

00z Op goes for the major warm up at the end again. 15c uppers

Today's temp summaries maintaining a 'layered' pattern of temps in W Europe from hot in Spain to cool in Scotland but futher east some very cold weather for the time of year coming S from the White Sea. Week 2 sees some warmth creep into S England while E Europe retains its cold pool. Rain fairly well distributed across Europe in week 1, resolving in week 2 into patches on the Atlantic (NW Scotland still damp), W Russia and over the Alps/Pyrenees. Driest in a strip along the W coasts of continental Europe.

Jet - a few bits of W-lies over Britain to start with and then more consistently from Wed 25th for a few days, mostly over Scotland. Not much to be seen after Mon 30th

GFS Op - pressure fairly high with mostly W-lies for the coming week, though a shallow trough briefly moves across Britain Mon/Tue 23rd/24th. HP develops Mon 30th 1025mb to cover Britain, and then slowly drifts N-wards to form a ridge Ireland - Norway with continental (warm, thundery?) LP affecting England

GEFS - for the S, a brief warming, cooler around Wed 25th before the mean steadily climbs to 3 or 4 C above norm Sun 5th (at that stage very fe ens members below norm though disagreement in the lead-up). In the N, the cooler period extends a few days beyond the 24th but does also warm up later.  Today's rain is SE only, most of Britain gets some on the 24th though v little in SW, mostly dry generally after that but the NW continues wet throughout.

ECM - Like GFS to Sat 28th but the HP then develops more quickly and moves N-wards more quickly so by Mon 30th slack LP over Europe is combining with Lp S of Ireland

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Heatwave Alert on the 12z gfs Op
🔥

Hope so - I've just seen a temperature forecast for the last week of this month and it looks pretty miserable with 15s and 16s.

 

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GFS seems to keep on showing crazy hot outliers in the op runs for the start of June.

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GFS seems to keep on showing crazy hot outliers in the op runs for the start of June.

With no source of forecasting and models had been completely useless as remember they put this week warm mid 20's ? Only prove to see heat is right on the day you open the door to feel it on the spot.  Your other post referring 20C heatwave is true now days we are on Icelandic climate so any +20C is a big deal which it does in Iceland warm spells.

WX summary charts show some warmth in W Europe and coolth in E Europe week 1 re-arranging itself into a sharper boundary running continuously E-W  with warm, not to say hot, weather from S France to Hungary to S Russia, sharply distinguished from cooler weather to the north. Rain moves from its week 1 pattern with patches in N Sea (Norway,Scotland), Belarus, N Russia to a week 2 with a strip matching the temp boundary above.

Jet weakly across Britain now, stronger and mainly across Scotland for the end of next week. Then it revives from 1st June in a rather fragmentary fashion in the region from the Channel up to the Baltic.

GFS OP places LP between Scotland and Iceland this coming week, throwing a trough S-wards for Tue 24th (995 mb N Sea) before HP covers Britain 1025mb Sat 28th. This HP drifts N-wards allowing NE-lies for a while before slack LP over the continent shifts this direction to weak E-lies around Thu 2nd (maybe something thundery for England) and then finally LP organises itself off W Ireland Sun 5th to bring up warmth from the S for England but cooler SW-lies for Scotland

FAX and BBC show lower pressure across UK for Mon 23rd/Tue 24th, esp BBC which links it to LP over France

GEFS for the S - warm in the next few days, cooler around Wed 25th, then a little above norm for the next fortnight but the hot outliers referred to in previous posts have disappeared  (op & control quite cool at different times). Rain on 23rd/24th, then very little. In the N, similar but the cool spell lasts a day or two longer, and the rain is more general for the period around the 25th with more to be seen at the beginning of June

ECM like GFS but also tending to emphasise the trough on Mon/Tue

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WX: As yesterday, warm or hot weather over S Europe is sharply distinguished from cooler weather to the north, with a line from Mid-France to the Black Sea dividing areas above/below average for the time of year. In week 2 the big change is that the really cold pool which has persisted over Russia is replaced by warmth coming up past the Caspian Sea; if anything, countries around the N Sea are a little cooler.

GFS Op: a broad trough drifting E-wards across UK early this week (Tue 24th, 995mb Netherlands, BBC shows something more active over N France too) before HP develops for the weekend 1030mb Hebrides Sun 29th, unfortunately too far W to prevent N/NE-lies affecting the E Coast. That pattern stays around until Tue 7th end-of-run, sometimes with the HP spreading across the UK (Wed 1st), sometimes menaced by LP approaching from Scandinavia (Sun 5th)

GEFS: a little cooler for a few days, then mean temp close to seasonal norm though the op is a cold outlier around the 5th esp for E districts. Some rain at first, esp in the SE and NW, small amounts sporadically later on

ECM: agrees with GFS

 

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Looking at the way the models are going, it wouldn't surprise me if many places record a warmer a temperature for 1st January than the 1st June. New Year's Day this year was the warmest on record, so it's actually very do-able.

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Looks to me as though the other big models are now following GFS with northern blocking and much, much cooler.
Cudos to GFS if its right.

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WX temps: the cold pool which has persisted over W Russia in week 1 finally disappears in week 2, but this does nothing for temps across N Europe which remain cool north of a line S France - Alps - N Ukraine, with a sharp temp gradient to the Med and Black Sea which are warm/hot. Rain patchy but mostly in the cool areas outlined above.

Jet not very strong but always something across Britain and N Europe; at the very end something much stronger heading for N Spain.

GFS Op - broad trough over Britain now rather more extensive than previously forecast, moving away to the north and giving a zonal flow from Thu 26th. HP over SW England Sat 28th but quickly moving N to Iceland with NE-lies for all by Mon 30th. After that, Britain tends to lie in a trough from an LP on the Atlantic off SW Ireland to one over Scandinavia, the trough sometimes more marked (Tue 31st, Fri 3rd, Tue 7th) and at other times in a col between the LP centres.

GEFS - In the S, cool 25th May, briefly milder, then a cool period lasting to Thu 2nd (op & control quite cold, 6 or 7 C below norm, other ens member milder), mean temp finishing close to norm for a while. Rain now esp in SE, dry for a time, small amounts from Thu 2nd. In the N, cross off 'briefly milder', otherwise temp profile similar; also rainfall but current rain affects Scotland rather than N England.

ECM - synoptics like GFS until Tue 31st when the HP over Iceland extends a ridge S-wards, just enough to hold off the LP on either side.

Daily Star model - 25C ten-day heatwave starting at the end of this week

 

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