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Saint Snow
Monday, December 20, 2021 10:03:33 AM

Give the guy a break, he will deliver when he's good and ready.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


 


You have the wrong end of the stick



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
Monday, December 20, 2021 10:08:15 AM


Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay


UserPostedImage


Table


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


 



Thanks, GW and, like others have said, don't worry about the delay. Glad you're OK.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
Monday, December 20, 2021 10:59:50 AM

Met Office Hadley        6.3c       Anomaly       1.5c provisional to 19th


Metcheck                    5.98c      Anomaly        0.99c


Netweather                 6.47c      Anomaly         1.38c


Peasedown St John    7.2      Anomaly          2.3c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Windy Willow
Monday, December 20, 2021 11:44:16 AM


Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay


UserPostedImage


Table


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Life is busy  Thanks for all your efforts 


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
ARTzeman
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 11:24:12 AM

Met Office Hadley       6.1c       Anomaly      1.3c provisional to20th


Metcheck                    5.89c     Anomaly      0.89


Netweather                 6.4c      Anomaly       1.31c


Peasedown St John    6.54c    Anomaly    2.44c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 8:04:15 PM

Thanks for the update GW. Nice to know I'm not out on a limb with a near-average prediction - had that happen more than once this year!


Continuing to see 'neutralising' GFS output, CET-wise. Perhaps even a touch below 5°C to finish, if cold air hangs on right to the end of the year - such an outcome has gained a bit of model support today.


https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1473382081044656134



As you can imagine, I've been on a very tension-inducing ride these past few days, with scenarios ranging from an average to mild final week to generally cold or very cold.


A bit of a coming together on 'mostly cold, possible interruption around 30th' by today's 12z set.


The global weather patterns are in an extremely perturbed state at the moment due to a very prolonged Pacific MJO event conflicting with the La Nina base state, so the models are likely to continue having a hard time resolving blocking features, which should tend to feature a lot more than usual for at least a few more weeks.


Which is to say, I'm not anticipating an easy opening month to 2022 for this competition! 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Stormchaser
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 8:26:53 PM

Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C.


That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C.


In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C.


 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Saint Snow
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 11:35:58 PM


Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C.


That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C.


In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C.


 


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


This 'cold' snap has been a real disappointment. And chances of a proper freeze over the Xmas period to the NY have receded a lot today. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
Wednesday, December 22, 2021 11:17:27 AM

Met Office Hadley        6.0c       Anomaly        1.2c provisional to 21st


Metcheck                     5.7c       Anomaly         9.c


Netweather                  6.28c     Anomaly         1.10c


Peasedown St John     6.54c     Anomaly       1.64c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Wednesday, December 22, 2021 12:18:47 PM


This 'cold' snap has been a real disappointment. And chances of a proper freeze over the Xmas period to the NY have receded a lot today. 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


Even more so today. I now think that it will be well over 5.0C by the end of the month ....


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
springsunshine
Wednesday, December 22, 2021 9:47:32 PM
Given the latest mo December's CET is likely to be in excess of 6c
moomin75
Thursday, December 23, 2021 10:37:31 AM

Given the latest mo December's CET is likely to be in excess of 6c

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


Reckon my guess of 6.5c is going to be close. Males a change for me to be anywhere near!! 🤣🤣


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
ARTzeman
Thursday, December 23, 2021 12:00:39 PM

Met Office Hadley      5.9c      Anomaly      1.0c provisional to 22nd


Metcheck                   5.62      Anomaly       0.63c


Netweather                6.1c      Anomaly       1.01c


Peasedown St John   6.35c     Anomaly    1.63c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
Thursday, December 23, 2021 5:48:19 PM

Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.


Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.


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Chart 1


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Chart 2

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Thursday, December 23, 2021 11:25:03 PM


Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.


Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


What's the prize for the wooden spoon? 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
scillydave
Friday, December 24, 2021 10:14:35 AM


 


What's the prize for the wooden spoon? 


Originally Posted by: GezM 


 


A spoon......


 


 


 


Made of wood.🤣


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Sevendust
Friday, December 24, 2021 10:19:18 AM


A spoon......


Made of wood.🤣


Originally Posted by: scillydave 



Now that's just silly, Dave 

ARTzeman
Friday, December 24, 2021 10:58:36 AM

Met Office Hadley          5.9c         Anomaly        1.0c provisional to 23rd


Metcheck                       5.70c       Anomaly         0.70c


Netweather                    6.16c       Anomaly         1.07c


Peasedown St John      6.17c        Anomaly        1.3c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin P
Friday, December 24, 2021 11:40:24 AM


Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.


Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Thanks GW.  Another very mild December. 


Amazing to think it's 11 years since we had a cold December (though what a December it was) 


Merry Christmas my friend.


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
moomin75
Friday, December 24, 2021 12:09:12 PM


Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.


Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.


UserPostedImage


Chart 1


UserPostedImage


Chart 2


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Ooh. 6.5c would be spot on for me, probably for the first time EVER.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
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