Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 December 2021 06:22:12

Merry Christmas everybody!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
rickm
25 December 2021 06:30:51

Merry Christmas to everyone too - what are you doing up at this time Caz - got a really big turkey?


I;ve an excuse as I'm over in the States so it's not midnight here yet!


 


Rick

ARTzeman
25 December 2021 22:13:29

Merry Christmas Folks. Hope you had a good day.


Met Office Hadley            5.9c          Anomaly        1.1c provisional to24th


Metcheck                         5.68c        Anomaly         0.69c


Netweather                      6.22c        Anomaly         1.13c


Peasedown St John        6.25c      Anomaly         1.65c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
26 December 2021 11:16:59

Met Office Hadley         5.9c        Anomaly        1.1c  provisional to  25th


Metcheck                      5.64c      Anomaly        0.63c


Netweather                   6.2c        Anomaly        1.11c


Peasedown St John      6.9c      Anomaly      2.0c.   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
27 December 2021 11:06:32

Met Office Hadley      5.9c       Anomaly      1.1c provisional to  26th


Metcheck                   5.65c     Anomaly      9.64c


Netweather                6.18c     Anomaly      0.78c


Peasedown St John     5.68c    Anomaly      0.78c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bolty
27 December 2021 11:56:34
The mild weather at the end of the this week is going to push that figure up a bit, before we get the usual downward correction. Could this be the first ever December to record a 5.9 CET?
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 December 2021 17:00:18

Originally Posted by: rickm 


Merry Christmas to everyone too - what are you doing up at this time Caz - got a really big turkey?


I;ve an excuse as I'm over in the States so it's not midnight here yet!


 


Rick


 I’m always up early but yes, a big turkey.  Cooking dinner for 14, although we’ll be plating one up and delivering it to the doorstep of one who won’t be coming as she has Covid.  Enjoy The States! 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
27 December 2021 17:01:51

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

The mild weather at the end of the this week is going to push that figure up a bit, before we get the usual downward correction. Could this be the first ever December to record a 5.9 CET?

I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes above 6c. Depends how it adjusts at month end!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Bertwhistle
27 December 2021 17:14:18

Has anybody an idea of highest December CET days? It is really extraorinary that there could be some higher than 14C at the end of the month.


I note 13.1 on 19th in 2015 and wondered if we might pip it.


 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
ARTzeman
28 December 2021 10:45:40

Met Office Hadley          5.9c        Anomaly        1.2c provisional to 27th


Metcheck                       5.75c      Anomaly        0.76c


Netweather                    6.26c      Anomaly        1.17c


Peasedown St John      5.67c      Anomaly      0.77c           






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
western100
28 December 2021 18:59:15
Currently 6.1 IMBY

Set to rise significantly next few days

Mild start but not quite the heights of 2015 🤯
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
ARTzeman
29 December 2021 10:56:02

Met Office Hadley      6.0c         Anomaly      1.3c   provisional to 28th


Mercheck                   5.81c       Anomaly        0.82c


Netweather                6.36c       Anomaly        1.27c


Peasedown St  John  6.87c     Anomaly       1.97c.       






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
29 December 2021 12:01:29

Carol Kirkwood's BBC forecast suggests minima of 14C and in the E even 15C tonight (ridiculous!); put this with a 16 or even 17C max and we could end up with a local T for tomorrow of between 15 and 16C. I think that must be unprecedented in England in December and could lead to a CET (since both max & min are forecast not far off this ) for the day of 13-14C at least. Could be the highest ever December CET.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Spring Sun Winter Dread
29 December 2021 15:11:56
It is strange how it almost seems easier to get a very warm night with temps well into double figures at this time of year than it is in March or April.
Mainly because mild weather is often associated with cloud at this time of year while in March or April it tends to coincide with sunshine and clear skies which mean radiative cooling overnight.
Bertwhistle
29 December 2021 15:17:02

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

It is strange how it almost seems easier to get a very warm night with temps well into double figures at this time of year than it is in March or April.
Mainly because mild weather is often associated with cloud at this time of year while in March or April it tends to coincide with sunshine and clear skies which mean radiative cooling overnight.


Also, the sea temperatures are still higher in December in our region than they are in March or April, or indeed May in most cases, and that is also true of the long-fetch oceanic source of the current airstream.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Darren S
29 December 2021 15:23:22

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


Has anybody an idea of highest December CET days? It is really extraorinary that there could be some higher than 14C at the end of the month.


I note 13.1 on 19th in 2015 and wondered if we might pip it.


 



According to https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat the highest CET mean temperature for December is 13.1C, on 19/12/2015. The next highest was 12.9C on 12/12/1994.


The full list of highest means by month is as follows:





















































Jan11.6
Feb12.8
Mar15.1
Apr19.7
May21.2
Jun23.0
Jul25.2
Aug25.1
Sep22.6
Oct20.2
Nov15.4
Dec13.1

Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Stormchaser
29 December 2021 19:21:53

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C.


That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C.


In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C.



With only a third of the month left to go, we still had very wrong predictions from the forecast models!


In line with GW's latest projection, a finish in the low to mid-6s is now likely.



The setup was very finely balanced on 24th-25th but in the end the NAO just wasn't quite negative enough to force the required level of trough disruption and bring the cold air right in across most of the UK.


That meant no 'wall of cold' for the following Atlantic lows to have to break down, so the westerlies surged in with little resistance.


A very mild finish might still have occurred (the Iberian high signal was starting to show on 24th), but delayed by a couple of days, with the CET having fallen considerably by the time it set in.


On social media, there's been much pointing of fingers at an uptick in solar activity. The higher the activity, the more positive the NAO tends to be. From research papers, it does seem plausible that the short-term uptick had a slight, yet crucial impact on the NAO.


It's a sad thought for someone like me who greatly enjoys what the sun has to offer 99% of the time. Hopefully it will make up for it during 2022!



I tell you what though, if you ever needed an example to show how absolutely unpredictable the Hadley CET is, this is it! We're essentially throwing arrows at a dartboard after 7 pints while looking through the bottom of the glass! 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
scillydave
29 December 2021 20:05:21
On current forecasts it looks like the highest CET daily mean for January could be shattered. Mind you I'm actually quite surprised that it's as low as 11.6c

Interesting times.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
Saint Snow
30 December 2021 00:05:06

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 We're essentially throwing arrows at a dartboard after 7 pints while looking through the bottom of the glass! 



 


That's when I play my best darts!!



 


Early congrats to SSWD. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
30 December 2021 11:16:35
Many thanks Saint Snow.
I will have won the year without winning a single individual month (and indeed this final month am nowhere near as seriously under estimated what I always thought was an inevitable mild correction!) , not sure how common this is ?
Possibly quite common... like taking the Tour de France without winning a stage ...
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