The Weather Outlook

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Saint Snow
20 December 2021 10:03:33

Give the guy a break, he will deliver when he's good and ready.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

You have the wrong end of the stick


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
20 December 2021 10:08:15

Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay

UserPostedImage

Table

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

 

Thanks, GW and, like others have said, don't worry about the delay. Glad you're OK.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

ARTzeman
20 December 2021 10:59:50

Met Office Hadley        6.3c       Anomaly       1.5c provisional to 19th

Metcheck                    5.98c      Anomaly        0.99c

Netweather                 6.47c      Anomaly         1.38c

Peasedown St John    7.2      Anomaly          2.3c.  




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Windy Willow
20 December 2021 11:44:16

Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay

UserPostedImage

Table

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Life is busy  Thanks for all your efforts 


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

When I saw corruption, I was forced to find truth on my own. I couldn't swallow the hypocrisy.

Barry White

It’s the end of the world as we know it (and I feel fine) - R.E.M.

ARTzeman
21 December 2021 11:24:12

Met Office Hadley       6.1c       Anomaly      1.3c provisional to20th

Metcheck                    5.89c     Anomaly      0.89

Netweather                 6.4c      Anomaly       1.31c

Peasedown St John    6.54c    Anomaly    2.44c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Stormchaser
21 December 2021 20:04:15

Thanks for the update GW. Nice to know I'm not out on a limb with a near-average prediction - had that happen more than once this year!

Continuing to see 'neutralising' GFS output, CET-wise. Perhaps even a touch below 5°C to finish, if cold air hangs on right to the end of the year - such an outcome has gained a bit of model support today.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1473382081044656134


As you can imagine, I've been on a very tension-inducing ride these past few days, with scenarios ranging from an average to mild final week to generally cold or very cold.

A bit of a coming together on 'mostly cold, possible interruption around 30th' by today's 12z set.

The global weather patterns are in an extremely perturbed state at the moment due to a very prolonged Pacific MJO event conflicting with the La Nina base state, so the models are likely to continue having a hard time resolving blocking features, which should tend to feature a lot more than usual for at least a few more weeks.

Which is to say, I'm not anticipating an easy opening month to 2022 for this competition! 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2023's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Stormchaser
21 December 2021 20:26:53

Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C.

That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C.

In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C.

 


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2023's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Saint Snow
21 December 2021 23:35:58

Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C.

That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C.

In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C.

 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 

This 'cold' snap has been a real disappointment. And chances of a proper freeze over the Xmas period to the NY have receded a lot today. 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

ARTzeman
22 December 2021 11:17:27

Met Office Hadley        6.0c       Anomaly        1.2c provisional to 21st

Metcheck                     5.7c       Anomaly         9.c

Netweather                  6.28c     Anomaly         1.10c

Peasedown St John     6.54c     Anomaly       1.64c.  




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
22 December 2021 12:18:47

This 'cold' snap has been a real disappointment. And chances of a proper freeze over the Xmas period to the NY have receded a lot today. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 

Even more so today. I now think that it will be well over 5.0C by the end of the month ....


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

springsunshine
22 December 2021 21:47:32
Given the latest mo December's CET is likely to be in excess of 6c
moomin75
23 December 2021 10:37:31

Given the latest mo December's CET is likely to be in excess of 6c

Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

Reckon my guess of 6.5c is going to be close. Males a change for me to be anywhere near!! 🤣🤣


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

ARTzeman
23 December 2021 12:00:39

Met Office Hadley      5.9c      Anomaly      1.0c provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                   5.62      Anomaly       0.63c

Netweather                6.1c      Anomaly       1.01c

Peasedown St John   6.35c     Anomaly    1.63c. 




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Global Warming
23 December 2021 17:48:19

Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.

Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.

UserPostedImage

Chart 1

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Chart 2

GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2021 23:25:03

Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.

Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.

UserPostedImage

Chart 1

UserPostedImage

Chart 2

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

What's the prize for the wooden spoon? 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

scillydave
24 December 2021 10:14:35

 

What's the prize for the wooden spoon? 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

 

A spoon......

 

 

 

Made of wood.🤣


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Sevendust
24 December 2021 10:19:18

A spoon......

Made of wood.🤣

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Now that's just silly, Dave 

ARTzeman
24 December 2021 10:58:36

Met Office Hadley          5.9c         Anomaly        1.0c provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                       5.70c       Anomaly         0.70c

Netweather                    6.16c       Anomaly         1.07c

Peasedown St John      6.17c        Anomaly        1.3c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Gavin P
24 December 2021 11:40:24

Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.

Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.

UserPostedImage

Chart 1

UserPostedImage

Chart 2

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Thanks GW.  Another very mild December. 

Amazing to think it's 11 years since we had a cold December (though what a December it was) 

Merry Christmas my friend.


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

moomin75
24 December 2021 12:09:12

Latest CET tracker shows a very warm finish to the month. Record date means are possible on 30th and 31st.

Current estimate is for the CET to finish around 6.5C.

UserPostedImage

Chart 1

UserPostedImage

Chart 2

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Ooh. 6.5c would be spot on for me, probably for the first time EVER.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
25 December 2021 06:22:12

Merry Christmas everybody!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.

rickm
25 December 2021 06:30:51

Merry Christmas to everyone too - what are you doing up at this time Caz - got a really big turkey?

I;ve an excuse as I'm over in the States so it's not midnight here yet!

 

Rick

ARTzeman
25 December 2021 22:13:29

Merry Christmas Folks. Hope you had a good day.

Met Office Hadley            5.9c          Anomaly        1.1c provisional to24th

Metcheck                         5.68c        Anomaly         0.69c

Netweather                      6.22c        Anomaly         1.13c

Peasedown St John        6.25c      Anomaly         1.65c.




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
26 December 2021 11:16:59

Met Office Hadley         5.9c        Anomaly        1.1c  provisional to  25th

Metcheck                      5.64c      Anomaly        0.63c

Netweather                   6.2c        Anomaly        1.11c

Peasedown St John      6.9c      Anomaly      2.0c.   




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
27 December 2021 11:06:32

Met Office Hadley      5.9c       Anomaly      1.1c provisional to  26th

Metcheck                   5.65c     Anomaly      9.64c

Netweather                6.18c     Anomaly      0.78c

Peasedown St John     5.68c    Anomaly      0.78c.  




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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