Thanks for the update GW. Nice to know I'm not out on a limb with a near-average prediction - had that happen more than once this year!
Continuing to see 'neutralising' GFS output, CET-wise. Perhaps even a touch below 5°C to finish, if cold air hangs on right to the end of the year - such an outcome has gained a bit of model support today.
As you can imagine, I've been on a very tension-inducing ride these past few days, with scenarios ranging from an average to mild final week to generally cold or very cold.
A bit of a coming together on 'mostly cold, possible interruption around 30th' by today's 12z set.
The global weather patterns are in an extremely perturbed state at the moment due to a very prolonged Pacific MJO event conflicting with the La Nina base state, so the models are likely to continue having a hard time resolving blocking features, which should tend to feature a lot more than usual for at least a few more weeks.
Which is to say, I'm not anticipating an easy opening month to 2022 for this competition!