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I'm happy with what I've gone for this month. 4.75C
I think we'll have to wait til January for any dramatic cold.
Met Office Hadley 5.3c Anomaly 0.0c provisional to 3rd
Metcheck 4.22c Anomaly -0.77c
Netweather 5.01c Anomaly -0.1c
Peasedown St John 4.77c Anomaly -0.13c.
Met Office Hadley 5.0c Anomaly -0.2c provisional to 6th
Metcheck 4.03c Anomaly -0.96c
Netweather 4.81c Anomaly -0.29c
Peasedown St John 4.92c Anomaly 0.02c.
Hey Guys...How do I find out where the Annual CET competition results are?Do we have to register somewhere to be able to view them?You guys obviously know whats going on. I haven't seen any results.Grandad
Originally Posted by: Grandad
Probably the best way to do this is to PM GW. He runs the competition and is pretty good.
Met Office Hadley 4.9c Anomaly -0.2c provisional to 7th
Metcheck 4.18c Anomaly -0.82c
Netweather 4.82c Anomaly -0.29c
Peasedown St John 5.4c Anomaly 0.5c.
Each month GW will post both a table of the entries for the current month (in that month's thread), and the amended league table for the previous month (in that previous month's thread).
Depending on how busy he is, that could be a few days after, or over a week.
Originally Posted by: ARTzeman
I must admit this is much higher than I expected for the first week. I was banking on something closer to 3.5C and then rising after that. Doesn't bode well for my slightly below average prediction unless we get that high pressure to sit on us for a couple of weeks!
I've won more "months" this year than when I topped the competition in 2016, but decided my strategy of going either high or low had back fired at least as often as it had been successful, so I went around average for December, having given up any hope of winning the competition in October. Well done to the November winners and good luck to all those in the hunt. I await the list of predictions with interest.
The CET for the months of this year have been notoriously difficult to predict and some of the stratagems deployed in the past by some of the more seasoned competitors have not been effective. I am convinced that as the weather gyrates in ever more extreme episodes in response to the background warming, that more extreme months will become even more frequent, making an already fiendishly difficult competition even more challenging.
Met Office Hadley 5.0c Anomaly -0.0c provisional to 8th
Metcheck 4.30c Anomaly -0.70c
Netweather 4.97c Anomaly -0.14c
Peasedown St John 5.04c Anomaly 0.14c.
I'm not giving this up, yet!
Going off current output, it could be close - all depends on the exact conditions the UK high delivers, and how long it can stick around.
Met Office Hadley 5.1c Anomaly 0.1c provisional to 9th
Metcheck 4.41c Anomaly -0.58c
Netweather 5.09c Anomaly -0.02c
Peasedown St John 5.17c Anomaly 0.27c.
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow
I think you’ll be OK. I’ve gone a degree higher at 5.5c. Too high but I’m well out of the running anyway.
Originally Posted by: Caz
I think you`ll have a good month Caz.The cet could be as high as 7c this time next week and anything is possible after that.Everyone is assuming this high pressure is going north but it could also return south and keep the mild flow going. I went for 5.8c so am in the same boat
Met Office Hadley 5.2c Anomaly 0.2c provisional to 10th
Metcheck 4.32c Anomaly -0.67c
Netweather 5.08c Anomaly -0.03c
Peasedown St John 5.22c Anomaly 0.32c.
Originally Posted by: springsunshine
I agree. I think a mild month overall is the most likely outcome. Based on current model output I think it's going to need a very cold last 10 days to get the CET back down to 4.5C or below.
Originally Posted by: GezM
I'm afraid I must contradict you there, for while the 850 temperatures look to stay high for some time, by Friday, models agree on a drier continental flow establishing, allowing surface temps to drop away. An inversion may set up over the CET zone, if winds are light enough. Even without one, I can see overnight lows being at least a little below what GFS currently predicts for 17th onward.
https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1469757482658631680
As things stand, it looks most likely to be another 'neutralisation' like we saw in November, though there are events afoot in the tropics which could facilitate a cold final week to the month via a -NAO pattern and push the CET below average.
Met Office Hadley 5.3c Anomaly 0.3c provisional to 11th
Metcheck 4.72c Anomaly -0.28c
Netweather 5.17c Anomaly 0.08c
Peasedown St John 5.8c Anomaly 0.94c.
Roll on the 17th. Cooler then....