I'm not giving this up, yet! 

Going off current output, it could be close - all depends on the exact conditions the UK high delivers, and how long it can stick around.

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Met Office Hadley      5.1c      Anomaly     0.1c provisional to 9th

Metcheck                   4.41c     Anomaly     -0.58c

Netweather                5.09c     Anomaly     -0.02c

Peasedown St John   5.17c     Anomaly     0.27c.

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I think you’ll be OK. I’ve gone a degree higher at 5.5c. Too high but I’m well out of the running anyway. 

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I think you`ll have a good month Caz.The cet could be as high as 7c this time next week and anything is possible after that.Everyone is assuming this high pressure is going north  but it could also return south and keep the mild flow going. I went for 5.8c so am in the same boat

Met Office Hadley       5.2c      Anomaly       0.2c provisional to 10th

Metcheck                    4.32c    Anomaly       -0.67c

Netweather                 5.08c    Anomaly       -0.03c

Peasedown St John     5.22c    Anomaly      0.32c.

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I agree. I think a mild month overall is the most likely outcome. Based on current  model output I think it's going to need a very cold last 10 days to get the CET back down to 4.5C or below. 

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I'm afraid I must contradict you there, for while the 850 temperatures look to stay high for some time, by Friday, models agree on a drier continental flow establishing, allowing surface temps to drop away. An inversion may set up over the CET zone, if winds are light enough. Even without one, I can see overnight lows being at least a little below what GFS currently predicts for 17th onward.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1469757482658631680

 

As things stand, it looks most likely to be another 'neutralisation' like we saw in November, though there are events afoot in the tropics which could facilitate a cold final week to the month via a -NAO pattern and push the CET below average.

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Met Office Hadley        5.3c        Anomaly       0.3c provisional to 11th

Metcheck                     4.72c      Anomaly       -0.28c

Netweather                  5.17c      Anomaly       0.08c

Peasedown  St John     5.8c     Anomaly    0.94c.

 

Roll on the 17th. Cooler then.... 

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If I have a good month, it’ll be a total fluke!  I’ve been rubbish this year!   

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After a relatively cool / cold start to December, IMBY comfortably under 5 at 4.1 average

It’s going to take a hammering upwards over this week with DD temps widely and high night maxes

Still think something around 5-6 is possible based on the output for some cold inversion possible next week.

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As we still haven't seen GW's table of predictions, are you willing to disclose your exact December prediction .

The three below you in the table Saint Snow 4.50, Bolty 4.50 and myself 3.33 have already done so.

Whilst you must be a strong favourite to win, we can then assess what Dec CET is required for anyone else to finish top .

The same request extends to others who are close enough in the table and may still be in with a shout e.g Sussex SM and AP Snowman.

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I went for 3.7c , looking like a cold/very cold last week so your 3.33c has a chance.

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My Prediction is for 4.90c. 

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Met Office Hadley       5.6c       Anomaly      0.7c provisional to 12th

Metcheck                    5.24c     Anomaly      0.24c

Netweather                 5.72c     Anomaly      0.63c

PeasedownSt John    5.27c    Anomaly    0.97c.  

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Worth noting that GW hasn't been on the site since 3rd December 

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My prediction was 5.1C

  Hope he’s OK.  Fingers crossed it’s just because he’s busy with work. 

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I went 5.0

Thanks to all who disclosed their December predictions.

As far as I can see there are 4 possible overall winners for the following Dec CET ranges

 

7.21c and above - Rickm wins

4.59c to 7.20c - SSWD wins

4.58c - SSWD and Saint Snow tied (GW to advise who wins)

3.55c to 4.57c - Saint Snow wins

3.54c and below - Frank H wins

 

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Thanks for the analysis Frank. Exciting stuff then! At the moment I think that there are still 3 possible winners. All depends how this cold spell pans out. 

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Met Office Hadley       5.9c      Anomaly      1.0c provisional to 13th

Metcheck                    5.56c    Anomaly       0.57c

Netweather                 6.07c    Anomaly       0.98c

Peasedown St John   6.45c    Anomaly    1.55c.              

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It might sneak to 6c tomorrow, but I think then it's going to be gradual inching down. Just depends how far that gets!

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So essentially we would then need a 3C second half for you to win. Roughly... could happen

Depends. This is looking like a gloomy high so the nights will most likely stay above freezing, apart from some areas lucky enough to see any brightness. If it had been a clear high, then things could be a lot more interesting now for the lower guessers.

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Mine was a bit of a ** or bust 'prediction'!