Met Office Hadley      6.1c      Anomaly     1.2c provisional to 14th

Metcheck                   5.86c    Anomaly      0.87c

Netweather                6.35c    Anomaly       1.26c

Peasedown St John    6.48c    Anomaly    1.52c. 

Met Office Hadley        6.3c       Anomaly       1.4c provisional to 15th

Metcheck                     6.10c     Anomaly        1.11c

Netweather                  6.6c       Anomaly        1.67c

Peasedown St John     6.04c     Anomaly        2.04c. 

Met Office Hadley        6.5c      Anomaly      1.6c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                     6.20c     Anomaly       1.21c

Netweather                  6.71c     Anomaly       1.62c

Peasedown St John    6.78c     Anomaly       1.88c.      

WTF?

How can the CET continue to climb??

I think the current unexpectedly high CET value, coupled with the reality of temps not being particularly cold for the foreseeable and the Xmas period weather looking very uncertain (with perhaps a post-Xmas warm-up), I think the gold medal is safely SSWD's.

Its not been that cold by day and overnight minima have been well above average recently.

I wouldn't rule you out yet as there are still a lot of very cold model runs amid the uncertainty.

Also the CET to date may be too high , a point GW often makes.

I am the favourite for sure but that 6.5C figure looks way too high to me - we could be on for an infamous "downwards adjustment" - and next week is looking chilly IMBY which is normally a fairly decent CET proxy in winter (Met Office is calling for 2C max on Weds for instance) so I'm taking nothing for granted at this stage.

Met Office Hadley        6.5c         Anomaly       1.6c provisional to 17th

Metcheck                     6.18c        Anomaly         1.19c

Netweather                  6.68c        Anomaly         1.59c 

Peasedown St John      6.94c       Anomaly       2.04c.        

This really is turning out like November, with a big climb from below to above average, followed by signs of cold weather sufficient to neutralise the anomaly by month's end.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1472291077935800321

This projection includes the GFS 12z, which it should be noted is markedly less cold for 23rd-25th than the ECM, UKMO and GEM runs (in that order coldest to least cold).

GW still not logged in since 3rd December. 

I hope he's alright 

Back in December 2016 GW stayed away til Jan 1st 2017 - only then did I know Id won.  Give the guy a break, he will deliver when he's good and ready.

I wonder if GW is something in accounting, as they're alwasy busy this time of year tidying up the accounts for this quater, in order to get something of a Christmas break. Or he may not, but it would make sense. 

Met Office Hadley      6.4c      Anomaly      1.6c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                   6.10c    Anopmaly     1.11c

Netweather                6.66c    Anomaly       1.57c

Peasedown St John    6.82c    Anomaly      1.92c.

Here is the latest December CET tracker. Looking a finish somewhere around 5.2C at the moment. However, the models are all over the place so take that with a large pinch of salt.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay

Table

Great work as always GW.