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Saint Snow
10 December 2021 09:35:09

I'm not giving this up, yet! 


Going off current output, it could be close - all depends on the exact conditions the UK high delivers, and how long it can stick around.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
10 December 2021 11:18:06

Met Office Hadley      5.1c      Anomaly     0.1c provisional to 9th


Metcheck                   4.41c     Anomaly     -0.58c


Netweather                5.09c     Anomaly     -0.02c


Peasedown St John   5.17c     Anomaly     0.27c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
11 December 2021 08:10:25


I'm not giving this up, yet! 


Going off current output, it could be close - all depends on the exact conditions the UK high delivers, and how long it can stick around.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I think you’ll be OK. I’ve gone a degree higher at 5.5c. Too high but I’m well out of the running anyway. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
springsunshine
11 December 2021 09:03:26


I think you’ll be OK. I’ve gone a degree higher at 5.5c. Too high but I’m well out of the running anyway. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I think you`ll have a good month Caz.The cet could be as high as 7c this time next week and anything is possible after that.Everyone is assuming this high pressure is going north  but it could also return south and keep the mild flow going. I went for 5.8c so am in the same boat

ARTzeman
11 December 2021 10:49:23

Met Office Hadley       5.2c      Anomaly       0.2c provisional to 10th


Metcheck                    4.32c    Anomaly       -0.67c


Netweather                 5.08c    Anomaly       -0.03c


Peasedown St John     5.22c    Anomaly      0.32c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
11 December 2021 11:38:01


 


I think you`ll have a good month Caz.The cet could be as high as 7c this time next week and anything is possible after that.Everyone is assuming this high pressure is going north  but it could also return south and keep the mild flow going. I went for 5.8c so am in the same boat


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 


I agree. I think a mild month overall is the most likely outcome. Based on current  model output I think it's going to need a very cold last 10 days to get the CET back down to 4.5C or below. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Stormchaser
11 December 2021 19:57:47


I agree. I think a mild month overall is the most likely outcome. Based on current  model output I think it's going to need a very cold last 10 days to get the CET back down to 4.5C or below. 


Originally Posted by: GezM 


I'm afraid I must contradict you there, for while the 850 temperatures look to stay high for some time, by Friday, models agree on a drier continental flow establishing, allowing surface temps to drop away. An inversion may set up over the CET zone, if winds are light enough. Even without one, I can see overnight lows being at least a little below what GFS currently predicts for 17th onward.


https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1469757482658631680


 


As things stand, it looks most likely to be another 'neutralisation' like we saw in November, though there are events afoot in the tropics which could facilitate a cold final week to the month via a -NAO pattern and push the CET below average.


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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
12 December 2021 11:17:30

Met Office Hadley        5.3c        Anomaly       0.3c provisional to 11th


Metcheck                     4.72c      Anomaly       -0.28c


Netweather                  5.17c      Anomaly       0.08c


Peasedown  St John     5.8c     Anomaly    0.94c.


 


Roll on the 17th. Cooler then.... 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
12 December 2021 20:19:03


 


I think you`ll have a good month Caz.The cet could be as high as 7c this time next week and anything is possible after that.Everyone is assuming this high pressure is going north  but it could also return south and keep the mild flow going. I went for 5.8c so am in the same boat


Originally Posted by: springsunshine 

If I have a good month, it’ll be a total fluke!  I’ve been rubbish this year!   


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
western100
12 December 2021 21:26:17
After a relatively cool / cold start to December, IMBY comfortably under 5 at 4.1 average

It’s going to take a hammering upwards over this week with DD temps widely and high night maxes

Still think something around 5-6 is possible based on the output for some cold inversion possible next week.
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
Frank H
13 December 2021 08:50:57

I've gone for an incredibly safe, conservative guess more or less bang on average.
I would perhaps have been more adventurous if I wasn't leading .
I do think average is more or less where we'll end up . Decembers since 2010 seem pathologically unable to stay cold

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


 


As we still haven't seen GW's table of predictions, are you willing to disclose your exact December prediction .


The three below you in the table Saint Snow 4.50, Bolty 4.50 and myself 3.33 have already done so.


Whilst you must be a strong favourite to win, we can then assess what Dec CET is required for anyone else to finish top .


The same request extends to others who are close enough in the table and may still be in with a shout e.g Sussex SM and AP Snowman.


Wrightington, Wigan
Ally Pally Snowman
13 December 2021 09:18:26


 


 


As we still haven't seen GW's table of predictions, are you willing to disclose your exact December prediction .


The three below you in the table Saint Snow 4.50, Bolty 4.50 and myself 3.33 have already done so.


Whilst you must be a strong favourite to win, we can then assess what Dec CET is required for anyone else to finish top .


The same request extends to others who are close enough in the table and may still be in with a shout e.g Sussex SM and AP Snowman.


Originally Posted by: Frank H 


I went for 3.7c , looking like a cold/very cold last week so your 3.33c has a chance.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ARTzeman
13 December 2021 10:08:18

My Prediction is for 4.90c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
13 December 2021 10:47:08

Met Office Hadley       5.6c       Anomaly      0.7c provisional to 12th


Metcheck                    5.24c     Anomaly      0.24c


Netweather                 5.72c     Anomaly      0.63c


PeasedownSt John    5.27c    Anomaly    0.97c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
13 December 2021 11:00:08

Worth noting that GW hasn't been on the site since 3rd December 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
13 December 2021 23:22:45
My prediction was 5.1C
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 December 2021 06:42:27


Worth noting that GW hasn't been on the site since 3rd December 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

  Hope he’s OK.  Fingers crossed it’s just because he’s busy with work. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Sussex snow magnet
14 December 2021 08:20:33


 


 


As we still haven't seen GW's table of predictions, are you willing to disclose your exact December prediction .


The three below you in the table Saint Snow 4.50, Bolty 4.50 and myself 3.33 have already done so.


Whilst you must be a strong favourite to win, we can then assess what Dec CET is required for anyone else to finish top .


The same request extends to others who are close enough in the table and may still be in with a shout e.g Sussex SM and AP Snowman.


Originally Posted by: Frank H 


 


I went 5.0

Frank H
14 December 2021 09:52:55

Thanks to all who disclosed their December predictions.


As far as I can see there are 4 possible overall winners for the following Dec CET ranges


 


7.21c and above - Rickm wins


4.59c to 7.20c - SSWD wins


4.58c - SSWD and Saint Snow tied (GW to advise who wins)


3.55c to 4.57c - Saint Snow wins


3.54c and below - Frank H wins


 


Wrightington, Wigan
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
14 December 2021 10:04:50


Thanks to all who disclosed their December predictions.


As far as I can see there are 4 possible overall winners for the following Dec CET ranges


 


7.21c and above - Rickm wins


4.59c to 7.20c - SSWD wins


4.58c - SSWD and Saint Snow tied (GW to advise who wins)


3.55c to 4.57c - Saint Snow wins


3.54c and below - Frank H wins


 


Originally Posted by: Frank H 


Thanks for the analysis Frank. Exciting stuff then! At the moment I think that there are still 3 possible winners. All depends how this cold spell pans out. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ARTzeman
14 December 2021 11:11:40

Met Office Hadley       5.9c      Anomaly      1.0c provisional to 13th


Metcheck                    5.56c    Anomaly       0.57c


Netweather                 6.07c    Anomaly       0.98c


Peasedown St John   6.45c    Anomaly    1.55c.              






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
14 December 2021 13:04:12


Met Office Hadley       5.9c      Anomaly      1.0c provisional to 13th


Metcheck                    5.56c    Anomaly       0.57c


Netweather                 6.07c    Anomaly       0.98c


Peasedown St John   6.45c    Anomaly    1.55c.              


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


 


It might sneak to 6c tomorrow, but I think then it's going to be gradual inching down. Just depends how far that gets!




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
14 December 2021 18:26:54
So essentially we would then need a 3C second half for you to win. Roughly... could happen
Bolty
14 December 2021 18:32:18

So essentially we would then need a 3C second half for you to win. Roughly... could happen

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


Depends. This is looking like a gloomy high so the nights will most likely stay above freezing, apart from some areas lucky enough to see any brightness. If it had been a clear high, then things could be a lot more interesting now for the lower guessers.


Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
rickm
14 December 2021 23:34:36

Mine was a bit of a ** or bust 'prediction'!

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