Just did some calculations using my latest final Dec CET estimate which is just below 5°C.
That would mean SSWD won by a country mile with an annual total error of 8.28°C.
In 2nd would be Saint Snow with 9.08°C, while Bolty would claim the final podium place with 9.38°C.
With only a third of the month left to go, we still had very wrong predictions from the forecast models!
In line with GW's latest projection, a finish in the low to mid-6s is now likely.
The setup was very finely balanced on 24th-25th but in the end the NAO just wasn't quite negative enough to force the required level of trough disruption and bring the cold air right in across most of the UK.
That meant no 'wall of cold' for the following Atlantic lows to have to break down, so the westerlies surged in with little resistance.
A very mild finish might still have occurred (the Iberian high signal was starting to show on 24th), but delayed by a couple of days, with the CET having fallen considerably by the time it set in.
On social media, there's been much pointing of fingers at an uptick in solar activity. The higher the activity, the more positive the NAO tends to be. From research papers, it does seem plausible that the short-term uptick had a slight, yet crucial impact on the NAO.
It's a sad thought for someone like me who greatly enjoys what the sun has to offer 99% of the time. Hopefully it will make up for it during 2022!
I tell you what though, if you ever needed an example to show how absolutely unpredictable the Hadley CET is, this is it! We're essentially throwing arrows at a dartboard after 7 pints while looking through the bottom of the glass!