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Saint Snow
17 December 2021 12:55:17


Met Office Hadley        6.5c      Anomaly      1.6c provisional to 16th


Metcheck                     6.20c     Anomaly       1.21c


Netweather                  6.71c     Anomaly       1.62c


Peasedown St John    6.78c     Anomaly       1.88c.      


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


 


WTF?


How can the CET continue to climb??


I think the current unexpectedly high CET value, coupled with the reality of temps not being particularly cold for the foreseeable and the Xmas period weather looking very uncertain (with perhaps a post-Xmas warm-up), I think the gold medal is safely SSWD's.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Frank H
17 December 2021 17:05:25


 


 


WTF?


How can the CET continue to climb??


I think the current unexpectedly high CET value, coupled with the reality of temps not being particularly cold for the foreseeable and the Xmas period weather looking very uncertain (with perhaps a post-Xmas warm-up), I think the gold medal is safely SSWD's.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Its not been that cold by day and overnight minima have been well above average recently.


I wouldn't rule you out yet as there are still a lot of very cold model runs amid the uncertainty.


Also the CET to date may be too high , a point GW often makes.


Wrightington, Wigan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
17 December 2021 17:31:30


 


 


WTF?


How can the CET continue to climb??


I think the current unexpectedly high CET value, coupled with the reality of temps not being particularly cold for the foreseeable and the Xmas period weather looking very uncertain (with perhaps a post-Xmas warm-up), I think the gold medal is safely SSWD's.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Don’t forget the latest value is up to yesterday and it was fairly mild. Today, especially this morning is a different matter and I expect it to go down tomorrow and keep falling.  Don’t give up!  The models can’t quite make their minds up but on the whole, it’s certainly not looking mild!    


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Spring Sun Winter Dread
17 December 2021 17:44:43
The fat lady hasn't sung but she is certainly warming up...
I am the favourite for sure but that 6.5C figure looks way too high to me - we could be on for an infamous "downwards adjustment" - and next week is looking chilly IMBY which is normally a fairly decent CET proxy in winter (Met Office is calling for 2C max on Weds for instance) so I'm taking nothing for granted at this stage.
ARTzeman
18 December 2021 14:43:39

Met Office Hadley        6.5c         Anomaly       1.6c provisional to 17th


Metcheck                     6.18c        Anomaly         1.19c


Netweather                  6.68c        Anomaly         1.59c 


Peasedown St John      6.94c       Anomaly       2.04c.        






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Others just get wet.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
18 December 2021 15:31:20


Met Office Hadley        6.5c         Anomaly       1.6c provisional to 17th


Metcheck                     6.18c        Anomaly         1.19c


Netweather                  6.68c        Anomaly         1.59c 


Peasedown St John      6.94c       Anomaly       2.04c.        


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

  Really?  I did not expect that!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Essan
18 December 2021 16:25:02


WTF?


How can the CET continue to climb??


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Lowest temp I've had - just down the road from Pershore - in the past week was 5.1c   We're seeing most overnight min higher than ave daytime maxima (and daytime maxima proportionately higher too, until today).   Assuming similar for Rothamsted, that's 2 of the 3 CET stations seeing above ave temps, so no surprise the CET continues to rise.   Should start to drop a little this week.


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
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Stormchaser
18 December 2021 19:44:05

This really is turning out like November, with a big climb from below to above average, followed by signs of cold weather sufficient to neutralise the anomaly by month's end.


https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1472291077935800321


This projection includes the GFS 12z, which it should be noted is markedly less cold for 23rd-25th than the ECM, UKMO and GEM runs (in that order coldest to least cold).


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Keep Calm and Forecast On
Saint Snow
18 December 2021 20:40:45

GW still not logged in since 3rd December. 


I hope he's alright 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2021 06:12:54




Lowest temp I've had - just down the road from Pershore - in the past week was 5.1c   We're seeing most overnight min higher than ave daytime maxima (and daytime maxima proportionately higher too, until today).   Assuming similar for Rothamsted, that's 2 of the 3 CET stations seeing above ave temps, so no surprise the CET continues to rise.   Should start to drop a little this week.


Originally Posted by: Essan 

While further North we’ve had a couple of below freezing mornings in the past few days. Just shows how localised weather can be!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2021 06:22:21


GW still not logged in since 3rd December. 


I hope he's alright 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 Oh dear!  I hope he is too!  I seem to remember he didn’t log in much last December because he was busy with work. I sincerely hope that’s the case now. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Whether Idle
19 December 2021 07:46:26


GW still not logged in since 3rd December. 


I hope he's alright 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Back in December 2016 GW stayed away til Jan 1st 2017 - only then did I know Id won.  Give the guy a break, he will deliver when he's good and ready.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2021 08:11:28


 


Back in December 2016 GW stayed away til Jan 1st 2017 - only then did I know Id won.  Give the guy a break, he will deliver when he's good and ready.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Yes!  He deserves a break!  If only we knew he was OK, especially with this cursed virus being rife!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Windy Willow
19 December 2021 08:38:18


Yes!  He deserves a break!  If only we knew he was OK, especially with this cursed virus being rife!  


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I wonder if GW is something in accounting, as they're alwasy busy this time of year tidying up the accounts for this quater, in order to get something of a Christmas break. Or he may not, but it would make sense. 


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Spring Sun Winter Dread
19 December 2021 09:08:43
Maybe GW is actually Father Christmas
ARTzeman
19 December 2021 10:50:04

Met Office Hadley      6.4c      Anomaly      1.6c provisional to 18th


Metcheck                   6.10c    Anopmaly     1.11c


Netweather                6.66c    Anomaly       1.57c


Peasedown St John    6.82c    Anomaly      1.92c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Global Warming
19 December 2021 18:38:49

Here is the latest December CET tracker. Looking a finish somewhere around 5.2C at the moment. However, the models are all over the place so take that with a large pinch of salt.


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Chart 1


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Chart 2

Global Warming
19 December 2021 18:53:19

Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay


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Table

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 December 2021 20:22:35


Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay


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Table


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Yay!  You’re OK!  Don’t worry about the delay!  It’s no problem!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Ally Pally Snowman
19 December 2021 20:23:31


Here are the December predictions - sorry for the delay


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Table


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Great work as always GW.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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