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Maunder Minimum
07 November 2019 10:52:34


06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png


OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Stunning chart - the sort of chart which gets rampers ramping. But we have been bitten by such charts all too often and it is so early in the season. A chart like that in December, would really excite.


New world order coming.
Gooner
07 November 2019 10:53:04


06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png


OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Agreed , nice to see all the same and drier 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
07 November 2019 11:26:28

Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow


 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Gooner
07 November 2019 13:12:50


Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues 


 


Some decent blocked charts around has to be said 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
07 November 2019 13:25:04




We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


We also got some decent heavy snow right at the start of February - several inches here, heavy and wet enough to bring down lots of trees and block a lot of roads in this area. Whether it was SSW-related is debatable, of course.


 


But yes, last winter was painful in that the long-range forecasts (especially the Met Office ones) kept teasing us for about two months by saying a severe easterly spell was on the cards two weeks down the line, which never happened in the end.


 


Back to the current models and 06Z GFS would raise some eyebrows if we were another month or so into winter...



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Heavy Weather 2013
07 November 2019 16:29:23

This is starting to get interesting


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gooner
07 November 2019 16:30:43


This is starting to get interesting


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


12z looking blocked indeed 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Heavy Weather 2013
07 November 2019 16:39:01


 


12z looking blocked indeed 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gooner
07 November 2019 16:47:33


 


Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Totally agree Mark , 850's can sort themselves out later, its looking interesting for sure


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
07 November 2019 16:50:47

Hey USA. Cold SW winds from the Arctic over C and E Canada and up West NW Greenland and from up there straight to the North Pole.  


Short wave Lows diving SE from the Newfoundland and SW Greenland - flicked across to the UK from NW to UK with AO and NAO Negative.


Very good cross model suggestions not 100% perfect but GFS, UKMO and ICON have Europe West and Central and UK affected by Cold or below average or near average temperatures and plenty of rain - heavy rain and showers with often overcast and windy weather.


North Sea NW C and NE plus West and SW Norwegian Sea blocked but High Pressure that also affecting Norway and Finland Scandy etc.


Temps above normal for Central and SE USA if this prediction takes control.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
idj20
07 November 2019 17:18:17


 


Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



Just a break in the wet weather would do us just fine and the past couple of runs offers a glimmer of hope. After all it is only November and some of us in the UK probably have had double the November average rainfall and this is just the first week of the month! 


Folkestone Harbour. 
JACKO4EVER
07 November 2019 18:21:24


 


Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues 


 


Some decent blocked charts around has to be said 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


whats that Marcus, tears over Arsenal blow your keyboard? 🤣


some hints in FI again of northern blocking, interesting output for sure 

Russwirral
07 November 2019 18:31:51
GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run.

Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum

Shropshire
07 November 2019 18:45:00

GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run.

Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


All too early for anything decent unfortunately.


 


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Heavy Weather 2013
07 November 2019 18:49:58

Another dip and extension of the cold on the 850s


Here are the ensembles. 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


Gustys reverse psychology could be doing the trick 😉


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
ballamar
07 November 2019 18:53:28


 


All too early for anything decent unfortunately.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


no it isn’t - if the pattern persists will go cold

Bertwhistle
07 November 2019 19:09:54

Check out the GFS 850 ensembles: warm Moscow, snowy Inverness.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Brian Gaze
07 November 2019 19:12:04

Yes, here's a static of the Moscow 12 plot:


(Latest here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Moscow_Russia



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gusty
07 November 2019 21:00:40

For the first half of November this is a fairly notable run of sub 10c maxes for London ! Signs of something less cool later on hopefully. Again it's deep in FI and cannot be taken too seriously yet. 



Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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Brian Gaze
07 November 2019 21:13:50

GFS was upgraded today.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
07 November 2019 21:16:56


GFS was upgraded today.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


The phrase "everything is relative" comes to mind.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
07 November 2019 22:50:02
Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season.
Recent output continues to be interesting with tonight’s pub run repeating a trend for the jet diving very far south with possible north/ north easterly airflow over the UK next week & beyond 🥶
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
07 November 2019 23:05:16

Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


I think it's already arrived


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Argyle77
08 November 2019 01:22:54

Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

White Meadows
08 November 2019 06:37:56


Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.


Originally Posted by: Argyle77 


i think it was 2016-17 which was expected to deliver the goods with blocking as we approached winter, coupled with a promising met office extended outlook. Still, the hair dryer got stuck in the on position and we ended up milder than average again.


2009 and 2010 were excellent winters here, the best in recent times. 

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