Stunning chart - the sort of chart which gets rampers ramping. But we have been bitten by such charts all too often and it is so early in the season. A chart like that in December, would really excite.

Agreed , nice to see all the same and drier 

Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow

Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues 

Some decent blocked charts around has to be said 

We also got some decent heavy snow right at the start of February - several inches here, heavy and wet enough to bring down lots of trees and block a lot of roads in this area. Whether it was SSW-related is debatable, of course.

But yes, last winter was painful in that the long-range forecasts (especially the Met Office ones) kept teasing us for about two months by saying a severe easterly spell was on the cards two weeks down the line, which never happened in the end.

Back to the current models and 06Z GFS would raise some eyebrows if we were another month or so into winter...

This is starting to get interesting

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png

12z looking blocked indeed 

Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.

Totally agree Mark , 850's can sort themselves out later, its looking interesting for sure

Hey USA. Cold SW winds from the Arctic over C and E Canada and up West NW Greenland and from up there straight to the North Pole.  

Short wave Lows diving SE from the Newfoundland and SW Greenland - flicked across to the UK from NW to UK with AO and NAO Negative.

Very good cross model suggestions not 100% perfect but GFS, UKMO and ICON have Europe West and Central and UK affected by Cold or below average or near average temperatures and plenty of rain - heavy rain and showers with often overcast and windy weather.

North Sea NW C and NE plus West and SW Norwegian Sea blocked but High Pressure that also affecting Norway and Finland Scandy etc.

Temps above normal for Central and SE USA if this prediction takes control.

whats that Marcus, tears over Arsenal blow your keyboard? 🤣

some hints in FI again of northern blocking, interesting output for sure 

All too early for anything decent unfortunately.

Another dip and extension of the cold on the 850s

Here are the ensembles. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Gustys reverse psychology could be doing the trick 😉

no it isn’t - if the pattern persists will go cold

Check out the GFS 850 ensembles: warm Moscow, snowy Inverness.

Yes, here's a static of the Moscow 12 plot:

(Latest here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Moscow_Russia) 

For the first half of November this is a fairly notable run of sub 10c maxes for London ! Signs of something less cool later on hopefully. Again it's deep in FI and cannot be taken too seriously yet. 

GFS was upgraded today.

The phrase "everything is relative" comes to mind.

I think it's already arrived

Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

i think it was 2016-17 which was expected to deliver the goods with blocking as we approached winter, coupled with a promising met office extended outlook. Still, the hair dryer got stuck in the on position and we ended up milder than average again.

2009 and 2010 were excellent winters here, the best in recent times.