Whether Idle
06 November 2019 19:58:11

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Ah the good old Siberia-Aleutian pattern. I wonder what Bering that will have on our weather....

 its the way you tell them. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
06 November 2019 20:00:34

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

 its the way you tell them. 


Heavy Weather 2013
06 November 2019 20:21:47

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW.  

Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

idj20
06 November 2019 20:33:10

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

 

Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂



We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Bertwhistle
06 November 2019 20:58:52

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :)

 

Yes but surely, Steve, by now warmers mean less dry most often. Other than an extending breezy Azores ridge or a Bartlett with enough flow to prevent fog, most places must expect either warm or dry?

 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

doctormog
06 November 2019 22:11:18

More immediately the outlook (illustrated by the image below which is based solely on the 12z GFS op run) is a consistently colder than average one:

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png 

 


ballamar
07 November 2019 05:09:11
Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario
Gooner
07 November 2019 06:41:53

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario

Indeed so much 'potential' but we say that most years eh?

 

But nice to see all the same 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 November 2019 07:37:08

Briefly this morning:

GFS showing LPs to about the 17th then HP over Scandi with ridge to UK

ECM the same but the HP is at the very end of its run so not fully developed

GEFS consistent with this, cool this week with widespread rain, after that drier N&W, a few intermittent spikes in SE, temps recovering to average

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 shows the current blocking over E Europe nicely (I assume the pptn over Scandi is from the last of the depressions before the HP sets up)


"The most severe frost last night and this morning as I ever felt  ... the water upstairs in the basins froze in a few minutes after being put there this morn". Parson Woodforde's Diary, 14th January 1792, Norfolk

Chichester 12m asl

Heavy Weather 2013
07 November 2019 10:32:00

06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Maunder Minimum
07 November 2019 10:52:34

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 

Stunning chart - the sort of chart which gets rampers ramping. But we have been bitten by such charts all too often and it is so early in the season. A chart like that in December, would really excite.


New world order coming.
Gooner
07 November 2019 10:53:04

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 

Agreed , nice to see all the same and drier 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



The Beast from the East
07 November 2019 11:26:28

Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow

 


"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President

Gooner
07 November 2019 13:12:50

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow

 

Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues 

 

Some decent blocked charts around has to be said 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Rob K
07 November 2019 13:25:04

Originally Posted by: idj20 



We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 

We also got some decent heavy snow right at the start of February - several inches here, heavy and wet enough to bring down lots of trees and block a lot of roads in this area. Whether it was SSW-related is debatable, of course.

 

But yes, last winter was painful in that the long-range forecasts (especially the Met Office ones) kept teasing us for about two months by saying a severe easterly spell was on the cards two weeks down the line, which never happened in the end.

 

Back to the current models and 06Z GFS would raise some eyebrows if we were another month or so into winter...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
07 November 2019 16:29:23

This is starting to get interesting

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Gooner
07 November 2019 16:30:43

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

This is starting to get interesting

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png

12z looking blocked indeed 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Heavy Weather 2013
07 November 2019 16:39:01

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

 

12z looking blocked indeed 

Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Gooner
07 November 2019 16:47:33

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

 

Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.

Totally agree Mark , 850's can sort themselves out later, its looking interesting for sure


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
07 November 2019 16:50:47

Hey USA. Cold SW winds from the Arctic over C and E Canada and up West NW Greenland and from up there straight to the North Pole.  

Short wave Lows diving SE from the Newfoundland and SW Greenland - flicked across to the UK from NW to UK with AO and NAO Negative.

Very good cross model suggestions not 100% perfect but GFS, UKMO and ICON have Europe West and Central and UK affected by Cold or below average or near average temperatures and plenty of rain - heavy rain and showers with often overcast and windy weather.

North Sea NW C and NE plus West and SW Norwegian Sea blocked but High Pressure that also affecting Norway and Finland Scandy etc.

Temps above normal for Central and SE USA if this prediction takes control.


Updated Comment for period 1988 to 2023.

The Above average Winters, Spring Summer and Autumn Season in the UK, affected by El Nino and La Nina, though Cold Spells with proper frosts happen to occur in Winter's they tend to last 3-12 days.  Some 2-3 weeks of Mild SW flows are a regular thing.  UK has mixed weather in all Seasons.  It can be mild damp wet in winter, Cold frosty foggy Snowy Spells  if very lucky, or it can be frosty and cold in March to May that is the worst part, and sometimes Cloudy overcast very chilly even in May and June or even in September to November, less frost and snow.

Springs, Summer's have trended to be well above average some hot heatwaves lasting 3-5 days with greater amounts of sunshine, and all 4 seasons feature lengthy long fetch mild SW flows sometimes with strong winds and heavy rain or settled dry sunny spells. or extremely heavy thundery showers or longer spells of Thundery rain in any Season in the UK.  And 2 year long droughts.

 

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