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Whether Idle
Wednesday, November 6, 2019 7:58:11 PM

Ah the good old Siberia-Aleutian pattern. I wonder what Bering that will have on our weather....

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 its the way you tell them. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
Wednesday, November 6, 2019 8:00:34 PM


 


 its the way you tell them. 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 




Heavy Weather 2013
Wednesday, November 6, 2019 8:21:47 PM


 


He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
idj20
Wednesday, November 6, 2019 8:33:10 PM


 


Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Bertwhistle
Wednesday, November 6, 2019 8:58:52 PM


A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :)


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Yes but surely, Steve, by now warmers mean less dry most often. Other than an extending breezy Azores ridge or a Bartlett with enough flow to prevent fog, most places must expect either warm or dry?


 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
doctormog
Wednesday, November 6, 2019 10:11:18 PM

More immediately the outlook (illustrated by the image below which is based solely on the 12z GFS op run) is a consistently colder than average one:



http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png 


 


ballamar
Thursday, November 7, 2019 5:09:11 AM
Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario
Gooner
Thursday, November 7, 2019 6:41:53 AM

Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Indeed so much 'potential' but we say that most years eh?


 


But nice to see all the same 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Thursday, November 7, 2019 7:37:08 AM

Briefly this morning:


GFS showing LPs to about the 17th then HP over Scandi with ridge to UK


ECM the same but the HP is at the very end of its run so not fully developed


GEFS consistent with this, cool this week with widespread rain, after that drier N&W, a few intermittent spikes in SE, temps recovering to average


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 shows the current blocking over E Europe nicely (I assume the pptn over Scandi is from the last of the depressions before the HP sets up)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Heavy Weather 2013
Thursday, November 7, 2019 10:32:00 AM

06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png


OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Maunder Minimum
Thursday, November 7, 2019 10:52:34 AM


06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png


OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Stunning chart - the sort of chart which gets rampers ramping. But we have been bitten by such charts all too often and it is so early in the season. A chart like that in December, would really excite.


New world order coming.
Gooner
Thursday, November 7, 2019 10:53:04 AM


06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png


OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Agreed , nice to see all the same and drier 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
Thursday, November 7, 2019 11:26:28 AM

Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
Thursday, November 7, 2019 1:12:50 PM


Gooner is back! All is well in the world! Lets hope this winter finally delivers Brexit snow


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues 


 


Some decent blocked charts around has to be said 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
Thursday, November 7, 2019 1:25:04 PM




We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


We also got some decent heavy snow right at the start of February - several inches here, heavy and wet enough to bring down lots of trees and block a lot of roads in this area. Whether it was SSW-related is debatable, of course.


 


But yes, last winter was painful in that the long-range forecasts (especially the Met Office ones) kept teasing us for about two months by saying a severe easterly spell was on the cards two weeks down the line, which never happened in the end.


 


Back to the current models and 06Z GFS would raise some eyebrows if we were another month or so into winter...



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Heavy Weather 2013
Thursday, November 7, 2019 4:29:23 PM

This is starting to get interesting


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gooner
Thursday, November 7, 2019 4:30:43 PM


This is starting to get interesting


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_213_1.png


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


12z looking blocked indeed 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Heavy Weather 2013
Thursday, November 7, 2019 4:39:01 PM


 


12z looking blocked indeed 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gooner
Thursday, November 7, 2019 4:47:33 PM


 


Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Totally agree Mark , 850's can sort themselves out later, its looking interesting for sure


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Thursday, November 7, 2019 4:50:47 PM

Hey USA. Cold SW winds from the Arctic over C and E Canada and up West NW Greenland and from up there straight to the North Pole.  


Short wave Lows diving SE from the Newfoundland and SW Greenland - flicked across to the UK from NW to UK with AO and NAO Negative.


Very good cross model suggestions not 100% perfect but GFS, UKMO and ICON have Europe West and Central and UK affected by Cold or below average or near average temperatures and plenty of rain - heavy rain and showers with often overcast and windy weather.


North Sea NW C and NE plus West and SW Norwegian Sea blocked but High Pressure that also affecting Norway and Finland Scandy etc.


Temps above normal for Central and SE USA if this prediction takes control.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
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