Agreed Marcus - We often say, lets get the pattern in first and then look for the cold. The 850s are not that exciting. But this pattern really is fascinating. Let us hope its not just Jam tomorrow.

Just a break in the wet weather would do us just fine and the past couple of runs offers a glimmer of hope. After all it is only November and some of us in the UK probably have had double the November average rainfall and this is just the first week of the month! 

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Would have been sooner but had a few technical issues 

 

Some decent blocked charts around has to be said 

whats that Marcus, tears over Arsenal blow your keyboard? 🤣

some hints in FI again of northern blocking, interesting output for sure 

GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run.

Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum

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GFS FI showing a real nice Limbo run.

Kinda wants to do a bit of everything, but mostly i think its trying to get its head around the ongoing northern blocking conundrum

All too early for anything decent unfortunately.

 

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Another dip and extension of the cold on the 850s

Here are the ensembles. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Gustys reverse psychology could be doing the trick 😉

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All too early for anything decent unfortunately.

 

no it isn’t - if the pattern persists will go cold

Check out the GFS 850 ensembles: warm Moscow, snowy Inverness.

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Yes, here's a static of the Moscow 12 plot:

(Latest here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Moscow_Russia) 

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For the first half of November this is a fairly notable run of sub 10c maxes for London ! Signs of something less cool later on hopefully. Again it's deep in FI and cannot be taken too seriously yet. 

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GFS was upgraded today.

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GFS was upgraded today.

 

The phrase "everything is relative" comes to mind.

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Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season.
Recent output continues to be interesting with tonight’s pub run repeating a trend for the jet diving very far south with possible north/ north easterly airflow over the UK next week & beyond 🥶

Hello all, looking forward to another fast approaching silly season.

I think it's already arrived

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Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

i think it was 2016-17 which was expected to deliver the goods with blocking as we approached winter, coupled with a promising met office extended outlook. Still, the hair dryer got stuck in the on position and we ended up milder than average again.

2009 and 2010 were excellent winters here, the best in recent times. 

Very interesting output,the thing is,we have seen this before during the Autumn then once we hit December everything reverts to type again.
Can remember a few years back,we had lots of HLB throughout the Autumn, to only disappear come Dec,never till return untill Spring,can't remember the year,but a common trend to get HLB in any other season accept Winter!

Only recent exception was nov2010 which carried on throughout Dec,can we hit the jackpot again.well the longer this pattern continue ,the greater the chance and it's been going on a fair while already.

Yep and everything is pointing to a zonal December. As you say 2010 didn't begin until the end of the month.

 

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I'll start a new thread at 7:30am. 

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