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nsrobins
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 2:08:05 PM


 


Certainly raised an eye brow from me Neil wink


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


Now I know the silly season has started ๐Ÿ˜‰๐Ÿ˜‚


Whether this very early promise develops or not it’s certainly (on paper) not the usual zonal dross. The majority of the long range seasonal output remains on the mild and wet side for W Europe but they’ve been mugged off before and might be again.


For an excellent running analysis of the latest trends and thinking I’d recommend Gavin P’s site and his weekly round-up.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Heavy Weather 2013
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 4:12:12 PM


 


Agreed - it’s almost like the algorithms are straining every sinew to revert to a default zonal but something keeps saying ‘no we’re going full northern blocking so get lost’ ๐Ÿ˜‰


Whether it’s unusual or not I’m not sure but some of the output going towards December would tempt Gary Sarre back from retirement.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


This is a great point. I have noticed this as well, every time they try and trend mild - they remain below average. They have shifted downwards again this week.


It feels like we are sort of sleep walking into a cold pattern - its nice to see a seasonal trend develop in line with the months.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 4:25:43 PM

.


The GFS is starting to come in line about that Eastern Canada and Newfoundland Low Pressure that is modelled today from ICON and UKMO- to start entering the UK at about 120, 144 hrs from today.


Crossing NW Atlantic and tracking SE, but losing the cold air as it mixes into less cold air in North Atlantic.


Blocking over SW Norwegian Sea to our North, and in Iceland and Greenland is showing up, GFS, UKMO and ICON show that cold air, but it is coldest over Central and North Greenland and Iceland and to the North and NE of the Norwegian Sea.


That Deep Low might weaken as we see more updates over next 5 days- a downgrade maybe possible.


If that cold air to our North and NE wraps in more closer around this SE Tracking PV Low that is to move SE from NE USA Newfoundland at 96-120 hours, it needs to really be strong and windy one to be able to drag colder East and NE winds if it does move SE from the UK after Tuesday next week.


The GFS, ICON and UKMO also have more Deep Low's over Eastern and Northern Canada shown in today's 12z run, moving to Eastern NE Canada and West to NW of Newfoundland at T120 - T144hrs.


With High Pressure over Greenland and Norwegian Sea and Iceland and Western N. Atlantic Eastern USA maybe there is some optimism I cannot guarantee- more updates will give accurate picture for November 10th to 12th et all.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.ย 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 4:37:40 PM

.


Deep Cold Pooling with Low Pressure Vortex Arctic Cold PV NE and East Canada and the whole of Greenland next week.


11th to 13th November, UK Low moving to West Europe and remain strong- weaken a little over UK, but quite wet and windy on Monday to Tuesday and even Wednesday.


Eastern US and Western North Atlantic at that time period: High Pressure.


Not much cold air in the UK for this forecast period, but cool and wet with rain and scattered showers definately possible..


Post Update. At T144 Monday 11 Nov. if the Greenland Block remains strong to Tuesday and Wednesday 12-13 Nov. and get the NE Canada PV Low to get stuck there that will allow cold air to our North to increase, to the NW and N. Atlantic as well, with cold NE Winds that could persist there from November 10th to 13th.


The ICON and UKMO look as good, but the GFS does not like it so it gives Greenland Low Pressure and cold West SW winds from NE Canada instead!!.


I wonder how this evening's ECMWF model with pan out for said period??



Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.ย 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
nsrobins
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 5:40:13 PM


 


This is a great point. I have noticed this as well, every time they try and trend mild - they remain below average. They have shifted downwards again this week.


It feels like we are sort of sleep walking into a cold pattern - its nice to see a seasonal trend develop in line with the months.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


There’s a first time for everything Mark (ref. your first sentence).๐Ÿ˜‰


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
JACKO4EVER
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 5:41:39 PM
More temptation deep in FI, jam tomorrow for sure. Wether itโ€™s a tasty jam roly poly or just a plain jam butty remains to be seen, but I hope itโ€™s not another winter in the offing thatโ€™s only played out in the deepest of model output timeframes. Iโ€™m not sure I could take another one of those.
Brian Gaze
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 6:38:42 PM

Didn't we have a similar sort of set-up going into a winter a number of years ago? Blocking built to the north and east as we headed towards December and people were speculating about the cold air flooding westwards. I remember thinking to myself at the time that the end result was as predictable as Ronald Koeman's famous free kick against England in 1993. Sure enough the blocking gradually slipped away eastwards and the Atlantic took over. Therefore I am holding back and waiting to see what transpires.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 6:41:20 PM
Interesting to see that the t850hPa GEFS mean is around or below -4 to -5ยฐC here for the next five days and as low as -7ยฐC on Friday now. Nit expecting to see anything wintry but it will certainly feel quite chilly.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 



Brian Gaze
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 6:48:18 PM

ECM 192 is quite fin.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 6:54:32 PM
The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.
JACKO4EVER
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 7:00:22 PM

The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


fair comment, for how long though remains to be seen. 

ballamar
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 7:38:47 PM
ECM on the verge of very cold spell finely balanced
Gandalf The White
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 8:02:39 PM

The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


That's a good, succinct summary.  Not unusual for this time of the year: you need something fairly exceptional for notable cold or warmth and we have neither in the offing, just some interesting evolutions.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 8:05:04 PM

The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


This is a very fair summary. ๐Ÿ‘๐Ÿป


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Bertwhistle
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 8:33:31 PM


 


Agreed - it’s almost like the algorithms are straining every sinew to revert to a default zonal but something keeps saying ‘no we’re going full northern blocking so get lost’ ๐Ÿ˜‰


Whether it’s unusual or not I’m not sure but some of the output going towards December would tempt Gary Sarre back from retirement.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


That's a really good way of illustrating it. The current evidence vs the LT patterns at this time of year/ under these synoptics, a dichotomy of commitments in the models, with lows pushing S again and again but almost as if they're not being allowed to be modelled to set up in a certain way. Are analogous models in the throes of evolution?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
Shropshire
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 10:10:53 PM

ECM on the verge of very cold spell finely balanced

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Don't like to see these synoptics in November (unless it is the end of the month), they've pretty much always led to strongly zonal Decembers in my experience.


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
David M Porter
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 10:28:22 PM

From what I remember, November 2010 saw synoptics during the first two-thirds of the month that were not too dissimilar to the current output. I do recall that in my neck of the woods, it was a much less wet and less mild November overall than the corresponding month a year earlier.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
dagspot
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 10:29:00 PM

always led to strongly zonal Decembers

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Any year examples/charts?


Neilston 600ft ASL
Gandalf The White
Tuesday, November 5, 2019 11:38:29 PM


 


Any year examples/charts?


Originally Posted by: dagspot 


My advice is to ignore Stropshire: this is the style he adopts every year, AKA trolling.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
Wednesday, November 6, 2019 6:53:51 AM
Temperatures during the next seven days are forecast to max at around 7-8C in London.

We can get these values sometimes on a straight northerly.

I want to see the current pattern continue and hopefully we will start to see even colder air.

There are a lot of rainfall spikes still appearing, I wonder if areas to could under the right circumstances see the odd evaporative cooling event if things are a slack.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
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