Certainly raised an eye brow from me Neil 

Now I know the silly season has started 😉😂

Whether this very early promise develops or not it’s certainly (on paper) not the usual zonal dross. The majority of the long range seasonal output remains on the mild and wet side for W Europe but they’ve been mugged off before and might be again.

For an excellent running analysis of the latest trends and thinking I’d recommend Gavin P’s site and his weekly round-up.

 

Agreed - it’s almost like the algorithms are straining every sinew to revert to a default zonal but something keeps saying ‘no we’re going full northern blocking so get lost’ 😉

Whether it’s unusual or not I’m not sure but some of the output going towards December would tempt Gary Sarre back from retirement.

This is a great point. I have noticed this as well, every time they try and trend mild - they remain below average. They have shifted downwards again this week.

It feels like we are sort of sleep walking into a cold pattern - its nice to see a seasonal trend develop in line with the months.

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The GFS is starting to come in line about that Eastern Canada and Newfoundland Low Pressure that is modelled today from ICON and UKMO- to start entering the UK at about 120, 144 hrs from today.

Crossing NW Atlantic and tracking SE, but losing the cold air as it mixes into less cold air in North Atlantic.

Blocking over SW Norwegian Sea to our North, and in Iceland and Greenland is showing up, GFS, UKMO and ICON show that cold air, but it is coldest over Central and North Greenland and Iceland and to the North and NE of the Norwegian Sea.

That Deep Low might weaken as we see more updates over next 5 days- a downgrade maybe possible.

If that cold air to our North and NE wraps in more closer around this SE Tracking PV Low that is to move SE from NE USA Newfoundland at 96-120 hours, it needs to really be strong and windy one to be able to drag colder East and NE winds if it does move SE from the UK after Tuesday next week.

The GFS, ICON and UKMO also have more Deep Low's over Eastern and Northern Canada shown in today's 12z run, moving to Eastern NE Canada and West to NW of Newfoundland at T120 - T144hrs.

With High Pressure over Greenland and Norwegian Sea and Iceland and Western N. Atlantic Eastern USA maybe there is some optimism I cannot guarantee- more updates will give accurate picture for November 10th to 12th et all.

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Deep Cold Pooling with Low Pressure Vortex Arctic Cold PV NE and East Canada and the whole of Greenland next week.

11th to 13th November, UK Low moving to West Europe and remain strong- weaken a little over UK, but quite wet and windy on Monday to Tuesday and even Wednesday.

Eastern US and Western North Atlantic at that time period: High Pressure.

Not much cold air in the UK for this forecast period, but cool and wet with rain and scattered showers definately possible..

Post Update. At T144 Monday 11 Nov. if the Greenland Block remains strong to Tuesday and Wednesday 12-13 Nov. and get the NE Canada PV Low to get stuck there that will allow cold air to our North to increase, to the NW and N. Atlantic as well, with cold NE Winds that could persist there from November 10th to 13th.

The ICON and UKMO look as good, but the GFS does not like it so it gives Greenland Low Pressure and cold West SW winds from NE Canada instead!!.

I wonder how this evening's ECMWF model with pan out for said period??

 

This is a great point. I have noticed this as well, every time they try and trend mild - they remain below average. They have shifted downwards again this week.

It feels like we are sort of sleep walking into a cold pattern - its nice to see a seasonal trend develop in line with the months.

There’s a first time for everything Mark (ref. your first sentence).😉

Didn't we have a similar sort of set-up going into a winter a number of years ago? Blocking built to the north and east as we headed towards December and people were speculating about the cold air flooding westwards. I remember thinking to myself at the time that the end result was as predictable as Ronald Koeman's famous free kick against England in 1993. Sure enough the blocking gradually slipped away eastwards and the Atlantic took over. Therefore I am holding back and waiting to see what transpires.

ECM 192 is quite fin.

The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.

fair comment, for how long though remains to be seen. 

The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.

That's a good, succinct summary.  Not unusual for this time of the year: you need something fairly exceptional for notable cold or warmth and we have neither in the offing, just some interesting evolutions.

The pattern is interesting the weather significantly less so.

This is a very fair summary. 👍🏻

 

Agreed - it’s almost like the algorithms are straining every sinew to revert to a default zonal but something keeps saying ‘no we’re going full northern blocking so get lost’ 😉

Whether it’s unusual or not I’m not sure but some of the output going towards December would tempt Gary Sarre back from retirement.

That's a really good way of illustrating it. The current evidence vs the LT patterns at this time of year/ under these synoptics, a dichotomy of commitments in the models, with lows pushing S again and again but almost as if they're not being allowed to be modelled to set up in a certain way. Are analogous models in the throes of evolution?

ECM on the verge of very cold spell finely balanced

Don't like to see these synoptics in November (unless it is the end of the month), they've pretty much always led to strongly zonal Decembers in my experience.

From what I remember, November 2010 saw synoptics during the first two-thirds of the month that were not too dissimilar to the current output. I do recall that in my neck of the woods, it was a much less wet and less mild November overall than the corresponding month a year earlier.

always led to strongly zonal Decembers

Any year examples/charts?

 

Any year examples/charts?

My advice is to ignore Stropshire: this is the style he adopts every year, AKA trolling.