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Surrey John
06 November 2019 13:15:33

Temperatures during the next seven days are forecast to max at around 7-8C in London.

We can get these values sometimes on a straight northerly.

I want to see the current pattern continue and hopefully we will start to see even colder air.


.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


You have a good point about cold winds from certain directions, first week of November and apparently whole of Finland below zero today 


https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/weather/inari/saariselka?map=temperaturemax


 


And already there is coastal sea ice in Baltic (some years it is early December)


http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/sstcolor.pdf


 


 


 


Bradford on Avon, Wiltshire
35m ASL
DPower
06 November 2019 13:55:23

The change today in the models compared with the more amplified options we have seen the last few days and especially the difference between the 0z ecm and the 12z from yesterday really brings home to me the folly of 1) looking beyond a week at most and 2) any in depth discussion on what the models are showing beyond this time frame other than a passing remark perhaps.


The ecm 0z run today could not look more different than yesterdays 12z that is why I hardly ever comment these days in the model output thread unless of course winter nivarna was being modeled within t120 which it rarely is. Several times already this autumn we have seen the models try and amplify the pattern with northern blocking etc only for it to implode within t168.


Model watching is fun but can be a complete waste of time as well especially when like netweather every run is analysed to death and outdated within a day or two. 

Joe Bloggs
06 November 2019 14:22:34

Just looked at my Weather Pro weather app (uses data from ECM/EPS if I recall).


No sign of double figures in Manchester for the foreseeable future (right through to 13th November).


I would guess that is relatively unusual for the time of year. 


Cold and unsettled. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Gooner
06 November 2019 14:32:53

417 consecutive months of above average temperatures globally


Incredible 


Info from C Fawkes 


October was actually colder than average for the UK 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


tallyho_83
06 November 2019 14:55:30


Just gone through the 20 runs and again there are some mad charts in there - granted no stella runs but an awful lot of blocking 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Again strength of zonal winds @10hpa will be weakening after strengthening towards middle and end of November:



NAO around neutral but AO going very negative:


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
06 November 2019 17:02:54
I’m not sure talk of winter during the first week of November is particularly useful. Looking at output I’m not sure what to expect next week nevermind in three to four weeks! Lots of blocking evident across a variety of output but little in the way if noteworthy conditions or consistency. I will be a bit more confident about the output for the start of the winter after the next 90 or so GFS op runs.

The immediate future (next few days) looks cool, after that average-ish temperature wise but more unsettled.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
06 November 2019 17:18:43

+4.


Very Slow 12z GFS today.


Climate Change is happening mr Trump.


Nice to see UKMO and ICON give Central and East to NE USA SW to NE moving Jet STm PV Lows.


Blocking Far East and SE USA, West N Atlantic with High P.


Newfoundland PV Low head SE on Saturday and Sunday to Northwest Atlantic then push it SE wards through Central N Atlantic and to West Europe and the UK.


GFS- America. Nice to see UKMO and ICON models High Pressure over Greenland and Iceland plus Norwegian Sea and Arctic High = Negative AO and NAO.


What will this evenings ECMWF show us UK people- wet and windy November weather with below average temperatures or near average.


I am able handle GFS and ECMWF and others flip flopping each 24 hours.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
06 November 2019 17:51:41

.


GFS 12z Model Output looks very good for the North Atlantic UK and Europe - domination of Cool and Chilly weather some cold conditions- average and below average temperatures and plenty of Low Pressure tracking from the NW - SE wards hmm.


Happy with ICON, UKMO and GFS.


High Pressure to our North and NW and NE, and also in Central to East USA - more further SE there you go...


Western N Atlantic High Pressure- NE USA PV Low yes, but through North USA areas that is good.


Cold Zonality in November is being shown for UK and West Europe. Greenland and Iceland Cold high pressure and same over the Norwegian Sea and the Arctic Sea to our North and NE.


 


.


This evening's ECMWF Output is hopefully going to support this forecast for Saturday and Next week, and also this week Thursday and Friday UK wet and windy chilly weather. Cold and chilly on Saturday- Sunday as well.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
ballamar
06 November 2019 17:53:40
No point looking at specifics but GFS looks against the norm with heights inflating all around, would suggest something is brewing. Will change next run but interesting to see
Maunder Minimum
06 November 2019 18:44:57

Weather in a state of flux at the moment - let's hope Ventrice is right about this however:


 


 



 



New world order coming.
JACKO4EVER
06 November 2019 19:19:04

No point looking at specifics but GFS looks against the norm with heights inflating all around, would suggest something is brewing. Will change next run but interesting to see

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


yes some subtle hints, decent northern blocking on some runs, I for one think the overall background patterns fascinating atm. With decent projections for AO and NAO, this slow burning situation could explode into winter proper come the close of the month. 

doctormog
06 November 2019 19:20:46


 


yes some subtle hints, decent northern blocking on some runs, I for one think the overall background patterns fascinating atm. With decent projections for AO and NAO, this slow burning situation could explode into winter proper come the close of the month. 


Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Indeed, or come to nothing at all!


Gusty
06 November 2019 19:40:26

A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :)


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Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Brian Gaze
06 November 2019 19:52:57


Weather in a state of flux at the moment - let's hope Ventrice is right about this however:


 


 



 



Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
06 November 2019 19:55:56
Ah the good old Siberia-Aleutian pattern. I wonder what Bering that will have on our weather....
Whether Idle
06 November 2019 19:58:11

Ah the good old Siberia-Aleutian pattern. I wonder what Bering that will have on our weather....

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 its the way you tell them. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
06 November 2019 20:00:34


 


 its the way you tell them. 


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 




Heavy Weather 2013
06 November 2019 20:21:47


 


He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW.  


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
idj20
06 November 2019 20:33:10


 


Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



We did get something out of it . . . in the form of exceptionally warm weather by late February. Wouldn't get that in a strong polar vortex induced mobile westerly airflow. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Bertwhistle
06 November 2019 20:58:52


A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :)


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Yes but surely, Steve, by now warmers mean less dry most often. Other than an extending breezy Azores ridge or a Bartlett with enough flow to prevent fog, most places must expect either warm or dry?


 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
doctormog
06 November 2019 22:11:18

More immediately the outlook (illustrated by the image below which is based solely on the 12z GFS op run) is a consistently colder than average one:



http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png 


 


ballamar
07 November 2019 05:09:11
Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario
Gooner
07 November 2019 06:41:53

Another fascinating run with masses of blocking building in the right place if you are looking for cold. Think the longer term forecast wording will be changing very soon hinting at this potential scenario

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Indeed so much 'potential' but we say that most years eh?


 


But nice to see all the same 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 November 2019 07:37:08

Briefly this morning:


GFS showing LPs to about the 17th then HP over Scandi with ridge to UK


ECM the same but the HP is at the very end of its run so not fully developed


GEFS consistent with this, cool this week with widespread rain, after that drier N&W, a few intermittent spikes in SE, temps recovering to average


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 shows the current blocking over E Europe nicely (I assume the pptn over Scandi is from the last of the depressions before the HP sets up)


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Heavy Weather 2013
07 November 2019 10:32:00

06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png


OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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