So with today's massive Met Office mishap via unforeseen stubbornness of cloud... given this is the UK we're talking about, you'd think such resilience would be assumed (!) - I jest of course - one wonders how tomorrow will play out as we have both low cloud dissipation rates and that North Sea breeze looking to cause trouble.
I believe that surface heating is the crucial factor that cuts down the cooling effect of the North Sea away from eastern coasts, by introducing vertical convection (hence turbulence and mixing), so the cloud is likely to be the bigger factor again in my opinion, despite a stronger starting flow off the North Sea than we had today.
There's not as much for the Met Office to lose this time, as their figures are a few lower than they put down for today, but today's cloud troubles have instilled a sense of wariness in me when it comes to expecting the mid-20s maximums that they've predicted.
Thu-Fri should see us free from the cloud issues, so that's when the vertical convection will really come into its own... and as a scientific fellow, I'm actually excited to see how that plays out!
Biggest day and region will be Thu in southern parts of England; mostly low 20s from the models versus high 20s to low 30s from the Met Office as per their longer-range video issued yesterday (anyone found a more recent video update looking that far ahead?).
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On