The following image shows the cloud cover on Wednesday afternoon https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_54_24.png

A sunny day in Aberdeen? Whatever next! I wonder why Richard didn't mention this in his latest rant. But of course he will never acknowledge anything that goes against his whining agenda.

Maybe we should be looking at record high minima for June instead. At 7.30 pm it is 23.6C here and not falling much here in S.Essex. People talking about the N.Sea cooling effect but Kent is only 30 miles or so  from N.France so with the predicted change in wind direction after Wednesday anything is possible in the coming days.

Records will be broken, just not at the surface.

GW, do you know the thickness and 850hpa records?

The (in)famous modelling shortfall was very apparent here today; both and ECM and GFS had my locality down for 22*C tops, but the actual was 24.7*C!

Initially I thought this was just down to clouds breaking more than predicted, but they did foresee some breaks in the low and medium cloud levels so I'm not sure that fully covers such a large error. Interesting to see this on a day with light winds; it's usually the ones with brisk maritime-sourced winds that see the big errors due to inadequate resolving of vertical convection causing turbulence in the flow (which lessens the cooling effect).

Will be interesting to see if such large errors feature again tomorrow, though it will be sensitive to how fast the clouds from overnight clear away north, so not such a good test subject as today was.

I’ll believe that when I see it although to be honest the weekend was generally rather pleasant weather wise. In contrast today has been vile.

Weekend was usable and warm in the sun.  Agree that today was dreadful.  Would be nice to get some proper warmth now and again though it even a thunderstorm.

France is going to be the story of this heatwave 46c is more than possible. Truly staggering and slightly concerning as well.

My guesses.

France 46c 

Netherlands 38c

Belgium 40c

Germany 43c 

UK 34c 

France is going to be the story of this heatwave 46c is more than possible. Truly staggering and slightly concerning as well.

My guesses.

France 46c 

Netherlands 38c

Belgium 40c

Germany 43c 

UK 34c 

 

Just for fun (Arpege this Friday):

 

Just for fun (Arpege this Friday):

 

That would threaten the all time European record, 48.0 set in Greece back in 1977.  The temperatures in that chart are quite frankly scary and whilst there is a big part of me that loves seeing records fall I can't help but wonder if it's gone far enough. If, and it's a big if at this range, that chart comes to pass then sadly 10s of thousands of people will likely die as a result.

Unprecedented is the word that springs to mind. 

Frankly, 'apocalyptic' is another.

The (in)famous modelling shortfall was very apparent here today; both and ECM and GFS had my locality down for 22*C tops, but the actual was 24.7*C!

Initially I thought this was just down to clouds breaking more than predicted, but they did foresee some breaks in the low and medium cloud levels so I'm not sure that fully covers such a large error. Interesting to see this on a day with light winds; it's usually the ones with brisk maritime-sourced winds that see the big errors due to inadequate resolving of vertical convection causing turbulence in the flow (which lessens the cooling effect).

Will be interesting to see if such large errors feature again tomorrow, though it will be sensitive to how fast the clouds from overnight clear away north, so not such a good test subject as today was.

No two years are alike of course but I remember last year analysing some of the hotter weeks, and we averaged over a week 4c hotter than forecast from a max perspective. Locality is not exactly heat inducing being rural and 135m ASL. We managed 25.9 today so 3c over forecast.

Max yesterday was 26.3C at Santon Downham. Some way short of the 29C predicted by the Met Office at the weekend. They went for 30C for today too!

Met Office now going for 23C every day this week in London, then 30C for one day on Saturday before dropping back to 22. Some heatwave this is turning out to be!

Met Office now going for 23C every day this week in London, then 30C for one day on Saturday before dropping back to 22. Some heatwave this is turning out to be!

Latest met office video has 29c today and tomorrow in the London area.

Met Office now going for 23C every day this week in London, then 30C for one day on Saturday before dropping back to 22. Some heatwave this is turning out to be!

Not quite their greatest hour, many people are still expecting a heatwave in the next few days, when for most it will turn cooler and fresher.

Anyway, Friday could still see some localised high temps in the SW and still a good chance of low 30s in the SE on Sat (32-33C just north of London).

 Latest met office video has 29c today and tomorrow in the London area.

 

This is like a parody now, it's pretty much impossible to have 29C tomorrow in London.