Latest met office video has 29c today and tomorrow in the London area.

 

They really need to try to get their website forecasts to bear some kind of relation to what they are saying elsewhere then!

24C today, then 23C, 22C, 21C, 30C and 23C!

https://i.imgur.com/KBYBV7A.png

 The video shows 30C and 31C for London on Thursday and Friday which is 8C and 10C higher than what their own website shows. Ridiculous stuff. How can anyone have a clue what to expect when the Met Office forecasts differ by 10C just four days out?

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They really need to try to get their website forecasts to bear some kind of relation to what they are saying elsewhere then!

24C today, then 23C, 22C, 21C, 30C and 23C!

https://i.imgur.com/KBYBV7A.png

 The video shows 30C and 31C for London on Thursday and Friday which is 8C and 10C higher than what their own website shows. Ridiculous stuff. How can anyone have a clue what to expect when the Met Office forecasts differ by 10C just four days out?

 

It is confusing to say the least whatever the temp ends up as.

 

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The problem is, the videos have forecaster input, while the site-specific numbers that you see aren't adjusted much, if at all, from raw model data (as that would take a HUGE team of experts!).

Usually, this doesn't make that much of a difference, but in the unusual setup this week with a very poorly modelled level of cooling influence from the North Sea (expectation being that it's WAY overdone), there are disparities large enough to cause some serious cognitive dissonance (Ha- I can hear Bill Bailey's voice every time I write those two words!).

 
It's going to be really interesting to see whether the adjusted numbers prove more accurate or not. On some days this means that the actual maximums have to be at least 2 or 3*C above the modelled ones, just to be closer to the forecaster-adjusted ones!

 

Today is a different case, mind, because the North Sea influence hasn't really got going yet. Differences look to be entirely down to how much sunlight finds its way through the clouds this afternoon. Models aren't great at capturing diffuse sunlight bouncing its way down through thinner areas of cloud at this time of year when the sun's high enough to achieve that.

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Hottest so far across the channel is Marseille at 35C, but expecting things to ramp up mid afternoon.

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How I'm feeling right now. It may "only" be 25 c in the shade, but the 20 c dewpoint via 75% humidity along with top soil being wet from last night's heavy rain are making it feel positively Amazon-like at this end of Kent. And that's with the sun glinting via thin cloud.

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Hottest so far across the channel is Marseille at 35C, but expecting things to ramp up mid afternoon.

Now 37C in Carpentras. Provencal stations tend to peak earlier than further north as less soil moisture, but I’d expect a couple of 38s today.

Irritating BBC report on the heatwave just now with their Paris correspondent saying “it’s hot but nowhere near as oppressive as I remember 2003”. It’s not got going yet!

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How I'm feeling right now. It may "only" be 25 c in the shade, but the 20 c dewpoint via 75% humidity along with top soil being wet from last night's heavy rain are making it feel positively Amazon-like at this end of Kent. And that's with the sun glinting via thin cloud.

Its still overcast here but with the dp around 19C and temp at 22.5C its feeling a tad sticky. Still shallow  puddles about, and plant foliage still wet from overnight rain.

Carpentras has reached 38C. Hottest in the UK so far seems to be on the southeast coast: Herstmonceux and Lydd leading the way but still below 26C.

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I notice the models are now showing relatively cool weather in Northern France later this week - maxes in high 20s to 30 while south of Paris it rapidly climbs to 40C.

A Meteo France blog yesterday was describing the interplay between the upper air plume and a strong surface high pressure advecting North Sea air across the North - exactly the issue affecting Britain.

The atmospheric oddities have started already here. Low level clouds are moving noticeably NE-SW while the upper clouds travel in almost the opposite direction.

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I notice the models are now showing relatively cool weather in Northern France later this week - maxes in high 20s to 30 while south of Paris it rapidly climbs to 40C.

A Meteo France blog yesterday was describing the interplay between the upper air plume and a strong surface high pressure advecting North Sea air across the North - exactly the issue affecting Britain.

The atmospheric oddities have started already here. Low level clouds are moving noticeably NE-SW while the upper clouds travel in almost the opposite direction.

The ECM has been predicting exactly this evolution since last Friday.

 

36C now in Germany (Noervenich), and 34C in NL and Belgium (various sites).

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Now 27 c and 22 c DP with the sun fully out. It is feeling Floridian-like where I'm half expecting alligators to go strolling past my house.

I'm struggling, it's too stifling to sit outside and is just touching 31 c in my famed west facing hobby room. Elderly mother's in her east-facing bedroom where it is a little "cooler", for want of a better word. 

Certainly another one of those days where I'm still glad not to be working in a tomato greenhouse, even 8 years on after I left my former nursery workplace.

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Starting to look like the Met Office overestimated the amount of sunlight finding its way through this afternoon. Today's maximums from their video forecast did surprise me in being widely mid-high 20s despite even their projections showing a lot of cloud cover away from the far south. There are signs of clearer conditions establishing from the south now, but unless there's a very warm wedge of air crossing the Channel (I suppose there could be...), it looks a couple of hours too late for enough heating to send London into the high 20s for example.

A small consolation is that, with it being 23*C there as of 14:20, it still looks plausible that the raw model max (23 or 24*C depending on which you look at) will be exceeded by a degree or two.

 

I have more confidence in the adjusted maximums being nearer the mark Thu-Fri. Not so sure about tomorrow as it looks like we'll be waiting for low cloud to melt away, which has a habit of taking longer than expected. Could be mixed results; some hitting the mid-20s while others are stuck in the high teens to low 20s.

 

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Starting to look like the Met Office overestimated the amount of sunlight finding its way through this afternoon. Today's maximums from their video forecast did surprise me in being widely mid-high 20s despite even their projections showing a lot of cloud cover away from the far south. There are signs of clearer conditions establishing from the south now, but unless there's a very warm wedge of air crossing the Channel (I suppose there could be...), it looks a couple of hours too late for enough heating to send London into the high 20s for example.

A small consolation is that, with it being 23*C there as of 14:20, it still looks plausible that the raw model max (23 or 24*C depending on which you look at) will be exceeded by a degree or two.

 

I have more confidence in the adjusted maximums being nearer the mark Thu-Fri. Not so sure about tomorrow as it looks like we'll be waiting for low cloud to melt away, which has a habit of taking longer than expected. Could be mixed results; some hitting the mid-20s while others are stuck in the high teens to low 20s.

 

25.6C here in ever increasing sticky sunny spells.. it was cloudy though until quite late. 

Very humid!!

Now 27 c and 22 c DP with the sun fully out. It is feeling Floridian-like where I'm half expecting alligators to go strolling past my house.

I'm struggling, it's too stifling to sit outside and is just touching 31 c in my famed west facing hobby room. Elderly mother's in her east-facing bedroom where it is a little "cooler", for want of a better word. 

Certainly another one of those days where I'm still glad not to be working in a tomato greenhouse, even 8 years on after I left my former nursery workplace.

Had we not got the N.Sea influence over the next 2-3 days, today would have felt cool and comfortable in comparison. Just imagine temps in the mid 30s, dew points in the mid 20s and plenty of sunshine too.

 

 

25.6C here in ever increasing sticky sunny spells.. it was cloudy though until quite late. 

Very humid!!

Temps do look to have ticked up by another degree or so in the past half hour, even where there's still a lot of low cloud or cumulus infill going.

Perhaps I was a little pessimistic earlier, though it'll take something impressive to kick places further north up near the adjusted values; e.g. the Bristol/Lulsgate weather station was 9*C short of the adjusted forecast max for the city as of 14:50, and Pershore is 7*C short. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they reach within less than 2*C of those forecast maximums (26 and 25*C, respectively).

Right here, it's a bit grim out there with overcast skies. Brighter to the south, but this 'clag' can be a stubborn beast in humid conditions.

Really says something for the encroaching airmass that it's 22.5*C as I type this. 72% humidity with that... sleepy weather.

 

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36C now in Netherlands. Jun record is 38.4C, which won’t be beaten today but we’ll keep an eye on Saturday.

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Here in Bradford the heatwave really getting going. 14 C max!

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Here in Bradford the heatwave really getting going. 14 C max!

The very low (900-1000mb) flow from the N.Sea has already started from the Midlands northwards and the impact on surface temps is very noticeable.

 

So far the Met Office human's are losing to the models in the temperature war. 

I still think Friday and Saturday could be genuinely hot though places like Gogerddan and and Porthmadog could see 32c ish I reckon. 32c ish again in the SE on Saturday. 

 

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