Moomin keep your chin up brother, we all feel your pain. With such a quick ENS shift overnight upwards it does show what is possible- who knows we could see a dramatic shift downwards in equally a short space of time?
Winter isn’t finished yet I’m sure.

Moomin keep your chin up brother, we all feel your pain. With such a quick ENS shift overnight upwards it does show what is possible- who knows we could see a dramatic shift downwards in equally a short space of time?
Winter isn’t finished yet I’m sure.

Hope you're right but we all know the default is mild and February is looking nothing like the Met Office's cold month. Tomorrow may deliver a bit of slush and that will probably be the end. Last night was just drizzle here - not a hint of even one flake of snow despite the radar suggesting otherwise. I feel like Richard in Aberdeen. At least last summer was amazing though so it's not an endless mush fest here.

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whilst it's obviously an issue for individuals if they want to wallow in misery, self-pity and try to drag everyone down with them... I don't see too much to be miserable about this morning.

A brief warm-up / regroup next week may not be a bad thing.

We are in the middle of a very interesting week of weather.

I always see winter as fundamentally Jan and Feb. Of course wintry weather can occur in Nov / Dec (but tempered by warmer seas / less cold air masses) and in Mar/Apr (tempered by longer days and strengthening sun). But Jan + Feb the classic winter months. On this basis we are only halfway through winter. Given the difficulties that NWP seems to have had in the medium term this year, there are a whole variety of options on the table for February. Ridiculous to write-off next week, let alone the whole of Feb!

Post of the thread, IMO.

Even though the output this morning indicated at least a temporary return to milder conditions next week, what I do not see in any suggestion of the atlantic taking over control of our weather in a big way. It almost seems as though the UK will be in a kind of no-mans land at times with neither LP nor HP having full control of things next week. As noted by others, pressure does appear to be trying to rise to the E/NE later in the ECM and GFS op runs also.

Interesting to note that the ECM 00z is, as had happened quite a lot recently I believe, rather milder than the mean. What I have also noted is that FI across many models seems to have been particularly unreliable this winter. Whether or not that has been something to do with the SSW that began just before Christmas, I don't know. However, much as there are now some people writing off February, there were some in the early days of this month who were saying similar things about this month. I know we have not had a classic deep freeze this month, but it has been generally colder over the last fortnight compared to previously, for quite a few areas at least.

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Moomin keep your chin up brother, we all feel your pain. With such a quick ENS shift overnight upwards it does show what is possible- who knows we could see a dramatic shift downwards in equally a short space of time?
Winter isn’t finished yet I’m sure.

Agreed, Jacko.

What I find a bit odd is why Kieren is so sure at this time that February will be a write-off when he himself has admitted that his prediction that January would deliver a major freeze hasn't come to pass. As others have said, the models seem to have had a particularly difficult time this winter when it comes to medium-long range forecasting; whether or not it has been something to do with the recent SSW, I don't know. The main theme that I have noted in recent days and weeks is that even at relatively close range, there has been a notable lack of cross-model agreement and run-to-run consistency. It wasn't until last weekend that developments during this week became more certain, for example.

If we can't be completely sure of what happens only a few days ahead, then how anyone can be certain about what happens a few weeks from now, I have no idea.

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Agreed, Jacko.

What I find a bit odd is why Kieren is so sure at this time that February will be a write-off when he himself has admitted that his prediction that January would deliver a major freeze hasn't come to pass. As others have said, the models seem to have had a particularly difficult time this winter when it comes to medium-long range forecasting; whether or not it has been something to do with the recent SSW, I don't know. The main theme that I have noted in recent days and weeks is that even at relatively close range, there has been a notable lack of cross-model agreement and run-to-run consistency. It wasn't until last weekend that developments during this week became more certain, for example.

If we can't be completely sure of what happens only a few days ahead, then how anyone can be certain about what happens a few weeks from now, I have no idea.

Simply because mild will invariably win out David. There's nothing in the models that suggests anything special up until mid February. I know things can flip quickly but they seldom do from mild to cold. I hope a bit of reverse psychology may help but there really is nothing to write home about in the models that suggests anything other than an average February for MOST of the UK. That said, I hope I am just as wrong for February as I was for January. The reverse Madden effect maybe? 🤞

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If we can't be completely sure of what happens only a few days ahead, then how anyone can be certain about what happens a few weeks from now, I have no idea.

I can’t be completely sure of Reading FC’s results for the rest of the year but I can be certain that at the end of the season they won’t be up for promotion!

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Keeping an eye on things from down under....and here there is a good amount of snow on the moors this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_123_1.png 


Just posting this from the 06z GFS op. Over many years of model watching this is the classic pre-easterly chart.

Lets see. :)

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I can’t be completely sure of Reading FC’s results for the rest of the year but I can be certain that at the end of the season they won’t be up for promotion!

😂😂😂 That's a great analogy Rob and sums up my thoughts perfectly.

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I can’t be completely sure of Reading FC’s results for the rest of the year but I can be certain that at the end of the season they won’t be up for promotion!

Point taken. That said, I'm pretty sure than most Spurs fans this time last week would not have thought their team would be knocked out of two cup competitions in the space of a few days.

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Battle ground uk on this run ?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_174_1.png 

Hating these consistently mild charts - wish these persistent SW from the Azores would go

Even got a Baltic trigger low developing

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_177_2.png 

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Get the BBQ out to cheer people up

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_204_1.png 

There is a reason why I suggested waiting until the 12z runs before drawing any conclusions. The 06z GFS may not be favoured but is possible.

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There is a reason why I suggested waiting until the 12z runs before drawing any conclusions. The 06z GFS may not be favoured but is possible.

 

but there is nothing in the charts to suggest the met office is right they will change their forecast soon haha. Just goes to show nothing is set in stone yet - one run etc

The 06Z op is certainly looking encouraging at T+198, and has reminded us that there's a great deal of uncertainty even at just 7 or 8 days out.

I suppose we ought to bear in mind that, according to data posted here a couple of days ago, the 06Z run has been verifying least well of the four daily GFS runs. Bearing in mind that the ECM has also consistently verified better than the GFS makes me wonder whether the 06Z GFS is actually a better guide than the 0Z ECM when looking at the same future date and time. In other words, is the benefit of the GFS 06Z having access to data that's 6 hours more recent enough to outweigh the model's poorer performance?

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looking at the 6GFS, the Met Office might be able to temporarily detach the omelette from their face?

Get the BBQ out to cheer people up

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_204_1.png

 

BBQ?  its probably going to be frigid at the surface.  Has Ice days written all over it.

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">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_204_1.png

 

BBQ?  its probably going to be frigid at the surface.  Has Ice days written all over it.

 

sorry - sarcasm !!

Well I called that one right from the +123 chart ;)

Only one run though.....

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