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If we can't be completely sure of what happens only a few days ahead, then how anyone can be certain about what happens a few weeks from now, I have no idea.
Originally Posted by: David M Porter
I can’t be completely sure of Reading FC’s results for the rest of the year but I can be certain that at the end of the season they won’t be up for promotion!
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_123_1.png
Just posting this from the 06z GFS op. Over many years of model watching this is the classic pre-easterly chart.
Lets see. :)
Originally Posted by: Rob K
100m ASL
Point taken. That said, I'm pretty sure than most Spurs fans this time last week would not have thought their team would be knocked out of two cup competitions in the space of a few days.
"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine
Battle ground uk on this run ?
Hating these consistently mild charts - wish these persistent SW from the Azores would go
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_177_2.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_204_1.png
Current conditions (personal WS)
There is a reason why I suggested waiting until the 12z runs before drawing any conclusions. The 06z GFS may not be favoured but is possible.
Originally Posted by: doctormog
but there is nothing in the charts to suggest the met office is right they will change their forecast soon haha. Just goes to show nothing is set in stone yet - one run etc
The 06Z op is certainly looking encouraging at T+198, and has reminded us that there's a great deal of uncertainty even at just 7 or 8 days out.
I suppose we ought to bear in mind that, according to data posted here a couple of days ago, the 06Z run has been verifying least well of the four daily GFS runs. Bearing in mind that the ECM has also consistently verified better than the GFS makes me wonder whether the 06Z GFS is actually a better guide than the 0Z ECM when looking at the same future date and time. In other words, is the benefit of the GFS 06Z having access to data that's 6 hours more recent enough to outweigh the model's poorer performance?
Get the BBQ out to cheer people upOriginally Posted by: ballamar
BBQ? its probably going to be frigid at the surface. Has Ice days written all over it.
Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history
">http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_204_1.png
Originally Posted by: Russwirral
sorry - sarcasm !!
Only one run though.....
Whatever the weather, this thread is always entertaining 😎
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Op looks pretty good on this run....best to see how well it's supported in the ens...
Originally Posted by: marco 79
I would also like to see what GFSP says.
Will very likely be a large cold outlier but it does at least buck the trend. Almost certainly won't verify though so it's just a bit of fun to see this.
GEFS coming out now, so we will see if op was off on one
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
Well if the 6Z is anywhere near the mark I will be more than happy to be proved wrong for Feb. Looks rather unlikely though!
So amusing. Would be great if the GFS 6z were anywhere near the actual outcome.
Goes to show the depth of model volatility at the moment though.
Control not going with the op sadly, but enough uncertainty to keep us interested
not much support for the op, but a lot of GEFS have a blocking high to the east, so perhaps chances later in the month as per METO forecast
Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East
Out to 192hrs it's one of a cold cluster that was absent on the 0Z. Still a minority but some support.