might have been 1983. It snowed the day i was born. 20th. 

Happy birthday to us! Unfortunately we share the same birthday as Hitler!

 

Happy birthday to us! Unfortunately we share the same birthday as Hitler!

 

Ahaa

 

You know that trivia too... my wife groans everytime i bring it up

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Happy birthday to us! Unfortunately we share the same birthday as Hitler!

You poor souls!

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The switch mid-term complete on the GEFS with a mild spell most likely next week. Can’t say it hasn’t been coming.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

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ECM 850s look quite toasty at 168. 

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That is a big jump overnight. If that is maintained on the 12z then I think we can probably call next week. With such a sizeable move in 12 hours we may not be seeing the final outcome. The pre 120hr period (non FI?) is still very much on the cold side.

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I cannot remember deep snow later than in april 1981 it was a rare occurance indeed

not deep snow, but can remember having snow in May

 

My oddest one (in England) was hiking with group in Lake District, start of September 1997 (PRincess Diana had just died) and a squall  came up, and it snowed, and settled, but melted about 15 minutes later.  Only time I have seen snow in the summer months in England (although being on top of a hill helped)

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Thursday night's event is the closest Ive seen to a classic Channel low for some time, and should deliver a decent but temporary depth of snow to southern counties. But 

• there's no strong connection to the east, so there's no really cold air on its northern flank. Thus the snow will probably be wet and not accumulate much at low levels


• there's support for milder air to work in from the south, so the snow is quite likely to turn to rain as it clears and wash some of the fall away

So, more snow than we've seen in this part of Sussex than for some years but not cold enough for a memorable event

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Morning all, quite a shift upwards in 850’s for next week so looking somewhat milder than of late. Thereafter a few options on the table, more runs needed.

GEFS with a big shift to mild next week and then a return to about average, taking us to mid Feb now. It would be a brave person who forecast a below average CET for February now, Met Office long-ranger or not.

The op and parallel runs both show heights rising over Scandinavia but never in the right place to bring cold air our way.

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Let's hope the mild blip is pumping up the heat and heights to the North East for later on then!

ecm op going off on one again.

Morning all, quite a shift upwards in 850’s for next week so looking somewhat milder than of late. Thereafter a few options on the table, more runs needed.

This morning's output looks like another massive fail for long range forecasting to go along with the infamous "BBQ summer".

Very depressed - even tomorrow's snow keeps being shifting south and will probably end up with only Portsmouth seeing a few flakes and all the fun being across the Channel.

The UK snow shield is in full cry.

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Thursday night's event is the closest Ive seen to a classic Channel low for some time, and should deliver a decent but temporary depth of snow to southern counties. But 

• there's no strong connection to the east, so there's no really cold air on its northern flank. Thus the snow will probably be wet and not accumulate much at low levels


• there's support for milder air to work in from the south, so the snow is quite likely to turn to rain as it clears and wash some of the fall away

So, more snow than we've seen in this part of Sussex than for some years but not cold enough for a memorable event

Good post David. Sums up my thoughts about this potential entirely

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This morning's output looks like another massive fail for long range forecasting to go along with the infamous "BBQ summer".

Very depressed - even tomorrow's snow keeps being shifting south and will probably end up with only Portsmouth seeing a few flakes and all the fun being across the Channel.

The UK snow shield is in full cry.

Yes indeed. It's been a horrendous winter for LRFs. I honestly thought this January would deliver, but it hasn't. And as for February, I think that is likely to be a write off too....much milder trend now and some egg on faces for sure.

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whilst it's obviously an issue for individuals if they want to wallow in misery, self-pity and try to drag everyone down with them... I don't see too much to be miserable about this morning.

A brief warm-up / regroup next week may not be a bad thing.

We are in the middle of a very interesting week of weather.

I always see winter as fundamentally Jan and Feb. Of course wintry weather can occur in Nov / Dec (but tempered by warmer seas / less cold air masses) and in Mar/Apr (tempered by longer days and strengthening sun). But Jan + Feb the classic winter months. On this basis we are only halfway through winter. Given the difficulties that NWP seems to have had in the medium term this year, there are a whole variety of options on the table for February. Ridiculous to write-off next week, let alone the whole of Feb!

Morning all, quite a shift upwards in 850’s for next week so looking somewhat milder than of late. Thereafter a few options on the table, more runs needed.

Yeah thought that when I flicked through the models too. Milder push more pronounced on GFS ens and ECM op, although GFS ens still have a blocked deep FI signal few.

Near term is cold/chilly with more snow for some and some low overnight temps.

Be interesting so see if the milder push verifies and how lo g it lasts.

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Yes indeed. It's been a horrendous winter for LRFs. I honestly thought this January would deliver, but it hasn't. And as for February, I think that is likely to be a write off too....much milder trend now and some egg on faces for sure.

We don't even have the consolation of it being a leap year when winter is one day longer.  

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We don't even have the consolation of it being a leap year when winter is one day longer.  

There's always next February. 😂😂

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ecm op going off on one again.

Though the operational is mild at T+340, it does suggest the possibility of very cold air arriving from the east a few days later. So it's not without interest.

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