Or January? This was the scene outside my student house in Sheffield on 27/1/96.

But checking the archive that was from an easterly.

Most notable feature on the EC15 post 240hrs is the increasing amount of warmth building up off the Canadian Maritimes. No real defined Atlantic pattern to narrow down but cooler than average temps favoured over much of NW Europe. 

Yes a point remembering when anyone says 'We need -8c uppers from  westerly ' etc etc.. Always check the pressure .Or look at other parameters such as thickness. 

Indeed. But also don't assume there will necessarily be a lot of precipitation when pressure is low.

Brighton Snow Rows looking less impressive with each run

They weren't so rare between 1950 and 1980. I always get chastised for banging on about it but this or similar used to happen from time to time and never really made the record books because it would be 6" of snow, turn to slush and be gone by the next day usually leaving a grey, cold misty 6-7C behind!

Yes this is absolutely true and my posts often appear as though I forget this.

I base the -10C uppers stuff on the fact I live in one of the least snowy places in the country. If there's a chance it'll rain instead of snow, it'll rain.

Everything has to be absolutely spot on here for snow, especially if we're not under a Pc airmass.

-10C tends to be the safe benchmark - I'm thinking back to Dec 2009 and Jan 2010. 

There are exceptions (Jan 2015).

.

At least there are cold NW winds and Northerlies and SW winds and Cyclonic winds on offer during the next 8 days.

This coming weekend windy with heavy rain and overcast skies from Saturday afternoon onwards, clearing to wintry showers by Sunday afternoon.

It looks chilly and cold later on Sunday 27th, and Mon-Wednesday look cold and changeable at least it won't be cool!.

North and NW Atlantic to North Atlantic and NW Europe under cold conditions but less cold air from further south in Western and Central N. Atlantic should start peering back come Wednesday evening to Thursday.

North and West to NW UK could see plenty of weather wintry and snow risk on Wednesday and Thursday even Friday with a Deep Low expected to track across the UK next week, to at least the 31st January 2019.

Low Pressure from NE USA ESE Canada SW off Greenland and from Newfoundland regularly tracking across the North Central N. Atlantic with cold air to it's NW side and less cold air to it's South and SE- this shall affect the UK come late PM January 30th, and for 48 hours after- bring snow for the NE North and NW UK, but heavy rain in the SW and Central UK in particular and some for the South and SE parts..

.

There is the chance of some sleet and snow on Tuesday evening and night for the SE of England as well, cold air and a short wave trof is being shown modelled to cross this area, lasting through to Midday Wednesday- it depends on the exact track it takes.

Next 48-72 hours this feature will become more easier to discuss about.

What with T850's of -8 early and late on Monday to during Tuesday and upto Midday on Wednesday, but rising to -5 by midday Wednesday 30th.

.

That was a classic.

It was a stalling front pushing into a Pc airmass. Blackpool had over a foot of snow if I recall. 

I remember it well.

My climate is pretty similar to yours (I've lived in Manchester so can vouch for this) and would put -5.0 as the lowest benchmark for westerly sourced snow, though at that temp it tends to be of the more fragile kind, especially by day. By night, it will tend to settle, but I agree with you that -7 or -8c would be the lowest benchmark for the more solid type stuff. At -10, Bob's your uncle. 

You really don't.

I might whine about missing certain snow events, but NW England certainly isn't one of the worst regions for snow in the UK. Not the best, god no, but I'd say it sits around the middle. I personally have had lying snow in the majority of years since 2000.

Manchester city itself has a UHI effect, so snow in the actual city is harder to achieve, and more marginal falls will impact the surrounding areas but not the city itself - but that counts for many large, low-lying cities.

What can sometimes skew the reality is people posting from elevated altitudes in areas like the SW, W/E Midlands, E, S, SE. It gives the impression that snow is falling & settling in all four corners but ours, when that isn't the case.

Both Operation and Control are milder outliers come FI in the 06z run:

Exactly, locally to me (well close-ish) places like the Surrey Hills, and North Kent downs give the impression that the SE / South Coast gets snow all the time, whereas here, 16m ASL about 2 miles from the sea is very unlikely to see snow.   Seen none so far this winter, and very little last winter, even during the 'Beast'

Probably worthy of a different thread, but bear in mind I’m speaking about my specific part of Manchester. I do now think it’s fair to say this particular district of south Manc, below 40m ASL, is one of the most snowless parts of the country - I’m talking Sale, Altrincham, Withington/Didsbury and Chorlton. 

We often miss out in slightly marginal events from the west, but remember too, unlike your patch, we miss out on frontal events when the wind is from east. In 2013 we stayed predominantly dry when Merseyside did much better. Higher parts of Manchester, even areas 80/90m ASL are a different story. 

I do feel very hard done by (although I guess we did ok in the beast episode).

We’ll see what happens next week. 

The ensemble mean is trending milder through FI, though, and by the end of the period is the mildest that we've seen it for quite some time. Of course that far out too much reliance shouldn't be placed on it. In contrast, the Para brings in an easterly in FI. It's a pity that we don't know what an ensemble that was run using the Para version of the GFS would look like - whether it would be significantly different or not.

Look on the bright side: at least you don't live in the Scillies. 

I used to live in Chorlton  and moved to Glossop at 200m in the 80s. In Glossop it is true that the marginal events are more likely to give snow and we do get snow in Easterlies, sometimes considerable amounts both frontal and convective we are close enough to the watershed of the Pennines for snow to carry over, even get heavy snow and clear skies in a strong easterly !

This westerly with -4c 850 hpa temps produced a couple of cm of lying snow in the middle of the day from showers here with modest altitude.

Dont expect it did on low ground such as Manchester but had the uppers been just 1-2c lower it might have done.

But yes Joe you are right to be cautious as many situations have resulted in a bust. -10c at 850hpa is probably needed to be sure at sea level when pressure is the usually 1000mb or so in a westerly.

Just checked out the runs, and whilst the 850's increase the 2 m temps don't really. There are a number of easterlies appearing out in FI (some up high warm ones at present, but colder lower down). Interesting times with METO update.

Martin

And the GEFS mean suggests pressure rising over Scandinavia in the long term. Whether it can extend far enough to influence us remains to be seen.

Id agree with you saint, but Wirral isnt like the rest of NW England.  You might say its being coastal, but Blackpool and southport all on the coast get more snow than us.  

Wirral is probably the least snowiest part of NW England, save for some very low lying parts of cumbrian coast which i know have rarely had lying snow (saw a news article on it a few years back)

Well I have notice recently is usually during the day the models starts off cr4appy with the 00z run's and then gradually upgrade as we head further into day and usually the 12z runs are the best so who's for an upgrade later in 12z ECM?

I was thinking the same thing earlier!