Maybe too early today. But if the trend we are seeing today continues the met could get more bullish in their updates about the cold spell, possibly later this week.

Good spot. Thanks. Something is brewing.

Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 22 Jan 2019:

A cloudy, windy day on Sunday, with some light drizzle over western hills and the best of any bright spells in the east. Some more prolonged spells of ran are likely in the far north/northwest where there's a risk of gales. By Monday it may turn colder and brighter with wintry showers across parts of the northeast. There is a trend towards more changeable conditions during next week, with spells of rain followed by colder and showery conditions, possibly turning to snow on northern hills. The best of any drier and brighter interludes will be towards the south. Temperatures overall close to average, but at the end of this period there may be a transition to colder weather with more widespread frosts and an enhanced risk of snow.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 23 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 6 Feb 2019:

During the last week of January and into early February there is an increased likelihood of colder weather conditions becoming established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of frost, fog and also snow. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and even if they do occur, they are will probably still be interspersed with some milder, wetter and windy interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Nice upgrade there.

Excellent update, all ducks are slowly getting into line 

Certainly pulled the cold forward somewhat.

I think this was the most interesting graphic on show in that video:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/ec-30-day-month-ahead-forecasts.php  Here's the EC 30 day forecast for UK and Europe

Big changes on the way for the end of January and early February #WinterUnleashed

Sorry Ben, I can't see that on my phone, can you explain if possible?

Graphic showed an extended forecast that indicated that the disturbance to normal flow due to the SSW at the lower strat/upper trop remains in place throughout February and into March and April. Or least least that's what I interpreted from the discussion! 

Does anybody read this nonsense before they post it for the nation to read? 

Not ramping it but the great winter of 46/47 stared in earnest around Jan 22nd..........

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 23 Jan 2019:

After a colder, brighter interlude for many areas on Monday, a return to milder, cloudier conditions is expected by early Tuesday. Through Tuesday, rain and strong winds will move into the northwest, with gale force winds possible in the northeast. Generally rather unsettled conditions are likely to continue for the rest of the period, with spells of rain interspersed with colder, showery weather. Snow is likely on northern hills, and perhaps to lower levels in the far north. The best of any drier and brighter interludes will be towards the south. Temperatures overall will be close to the seasonal average, but from late next week onwards there is a greater chance of cold spells giving more widespread frosts and an enhanced risk of snow, especially in the north and east.

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Jan 2019 to Thursday 7 Feb 2019:

During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold conditions being established generally across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frost, especially in the north. These notably colder conditions are by no means certain though, and even if they do occur, they will probably still be interspersed with some milder, wetter and windier interludes, especially for the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Another slight upgrade there especially for the north. Thanks for posting GD.

Still "by no mean's certain though?" still and we are into the first week of Feb!

I do wonder why the GFS Op run is failing to show some blocked FI charts and has been for a while now?

With all due respect, what's the big deal about there being uncertainty?

Any person who knows anything about forecasting the weather more than a few days ahead in the UK will tell you than there is always an element of uncertainty. I don't see what the issue is with the MetO continuing to mention this.

But also  rather a downgrade for the south longer term with a north/ south split and milder intervals  especially for the south.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Becoming unsettled for a time, then colder

Wednesday 9 January—Sunday 13 January

Chilly initially but turning milder and breezier

High pressure has been the dominant feature of our weather for a while now and it will continue to be so through the next few days. Thanks to the high pressure area, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will see lengthy periods of dry weather albeit with a lot of cloud at times. The cloud will be thick enough at times to bring occasional drizzle, mainly to western and northwestern fringes of the UK. After a chilly day and night on Wednesday, temperatures will slowly rise through Thursday and Friday as somewhat milder air moves in from the west. This weekend, the high pressure area will move further away to the south-west, leaving breezier and showery conditions. Showers and rain are likely to be most frequent over northwestern parts of the UK. However, there should also be some sunshine at times.
Staying rather mild for most too.

Monday 14 January—Sunday 20 January

Breezy with rain at times. Rather mild.

Next week is likely to be predominated by west to north-westerly winds, bringing in bands of rain and showers from the Atlantic at times. The showers and rain are likely to be most frequent over western and north-western areas of the UK. Eastern and south-eastern areas of the UK will see fewer outbreaks of rain with some decent drier and brighter interludes.
It is likely to be windy at times for many.

Temperatures are likely to alternate between the seasonal average and above the seasonal average. Most places should have some rather mild days with any chillier spells being shortlived. However, there is a slight chance (around a 20% probability) that colder northerly winds develop from around mid-week onwards. If that happens, we would expect to see a return to overnight frosts as well as some wintry showers. Currently, though, a rather mild outlook is expected to dominate next week.

Monday 21 January—Sunday 3 February

An increasing chance of cold, wintry weather.

There continue to be increasing chances of some cold, wintry weather through late January and into the start of February. In our previous outlooks, we have mentioned developments in the upper atmosphere over the North Pole. At the start of January, there was a dramatic rise in the temperature of the arctic stratosphere. Meteorologists call this kind of event a Sudden Stratospheric Warming or SSW. They happen several times per decade and are part of the natural variability of the global climate system.

The recent SSW event combined with other global scale weather patterns means that the UK has an increased threat of significantly colder weather developing as we head through the final third of January and into February. Most likely are for conditions to become generally colder from the north but also somewhat drier and less windy. There is the elevated chance of occasional snow, though, initially for the north of the UK before this risk extends to southern areas too. The main uncertainty is over the duration of the expected colder spell of weather - there are chances that occasionally milder, wetter and breezier conditions could spread from the west at times. Overall, though, conditions are expected to be colder than recently.

Next Update

We will take another look to see if there is a clearer picture on the duration and severity of the colder weather favoured later this month and into early February.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Yes, both buying into the jam tomorrow scenario.

Met office 10-day trend

Cloudy, windy, mild
Brief colder interludes

Beyond 10-days

Less active jet stream
Cold spells more likely
Detail not possible...yet

Nice clear explanation of the SSW there for the public, I thought.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jan 2019 to Thursday 24 Jan 2019:

Cloudy, breezy and mild on Tuesday with rain becoming more persistent in the northwest, before spreading to all areas overnight. Following this, Wednesday will see a colder day with sunny spells and wintry showers in the north, where winds will be strong and blustery with a risk of gales. Thereafter, it is likely to remain unsettled with further showers or longer spells of rain and a risk of snow over northern hills, but occasionally to lower levels here too. The best of any drier and brighter weather will be across the south and southeast. Temperatures will be close to average at first, but brief milder spells are still possible. Despite this, it is likely to turn colder towards the end of this period with more widespread frost.

UK Outlook for Friday 25 Jan 2019 to Friday 8 Feb 2019:

During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather becoming established across all of the UK. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow and more widespread frost, particularly across northern parts. However, there is uncertainty over the extent of the cold weather and it is still possible that some milder and wetter interludes will intersperse this generally cold period, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast