Interestingly on BBC Radio 4 weather report early this morning Thomas S gave a brief resume of the likelyhood a much colder late January for the UK and that this would last into February. He also touched on the El Nino effect for 2019. One can listen again if it is of interest on the BBC i player. 7.55am Today Programme 27th December.

Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Thursday 10 Jan 2019:

On New Year's Day there is the chance of some rain across parts of the northwest, but there will also be a good deal of dry weather around, especially in the south. However, there may be some fog lingering throughout the day. It will be windy in the north, and generally mild. This pattern is then likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely to be confined to the north, with possibly some hill snow. These unsettled conditions could also spread further south at times. It will be mild for many at first, with temperatures trending slowly downwards in the north and east, and perhaps central parts, with an increasing risk of frost.

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Jan 2019 to Friday 25 Jan 2019:

The second week of January will probably become unsettled in most areas, giving heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is likely, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, and these conditions will probably continue for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes remain possible throughout the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

The second period hasn't updated Gavin, that is still yesterday's 

---

This is where the Met Office get their source of data from re the cold around mid January- pause and play 07:40: :D

https://youtu.be/k7ivQ63NWgY

What from Metcheck ????

---

 

What from Metcheck ????

Met office talk of Colder weather from Mid month so posted the link in for a laugh if you pause and play 07:39 mins

Meanwhile Simon Keeling updated the forecast for January - month ahead!

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

 

Valid from 01/01 to 28/01 2019 Valid from 01/01 to 28/01 2019

Issued: Thursday 27th December 2018  Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling A murky, mild start then much colder later  There have been indications that the month may well end cold, after a mild start. Probably unsettled mid month with gales and rain.  *1/1/19 - 7/1/19*  A quiet start to the year. Mist and murky, some fog. Only patchy rain passing through. Mild overall.  *8/1/19 - 14/1/19*  Gradually more unsettled. Bands of rain passing east Mild at times, cooler later. Trending to more unsettled.  *15/1/19 - 21/1/19*  Unsettled. Wet and windy. Risk sleet & snow. Cooler.  *22/1/19 - 31/1/19*  Possibly much colder. Risk sleet and snow.  **ends**  Simon Keeling

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

 

Seasonal outlook - December 27, 2018   Cold February Late March warmth?

Issued: Thursday 27th December 2018  Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling   *February*  A chilly month.  Some distinct colder spells.  Risk of snow and ice.  Few milder periods.  Little change.  *March*  Starring chilly or cold with risk of more sleet and snow.  A sharp change mid month to wetter weather.  May become significantly drier and warmer for a time later.  More unsettled end to month.  Simon Keeling

 

 

---

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-news/3675361/scotland-weather-forecast-beast-from-the-east-polar-vortex-snow/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1545941642 

Must be true its in the Sun 🙄🙄

---

Gosh... her Intonation reading this script? is this a BOT?

Interesting never the less anyway!

---

Gosh... her Intonation reading this script? is this a BOT?

Interesting never the less anyway!

https://youtu.be/fegSAfpp_hg

A video interpretation of a Daily Express headline. Just as inaccurate and utterly, utterly ridiculous. 

---

Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Friday 11 Jan 2019:

There is the chance of some rain across parts of the north and west, but there will also be a good deal of dry weather around, especially in the south. However, there may be some fog which will be slow to clear. It will be windy in the north, and a few coastal wintry showers are possible in the far northeast. This pattern is then likely to predominate during the first week of January. Any bouts of wet and windy weather are most likely in the north, with possibly some hill snow. These unsettled conditions could also spread further south at times. It will be rather cold with fairly extensive frost at first, especially in the north and east, with a trend to milder and more unsettled conditions later.

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Jan 2019 to Saturday 26 Jan 2019:

The second week of January will probably be unsettled in most areas, giving heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is likely, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. By mid-month there is a greater chance of colder weather, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow, and these conditions will probably continue for the rest of the period. Despite the potential change to colder weather during mid-January, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

John Hammonds month ahead forecast

• Crisp start to 2019


• Briefly wetter before mid-month


• Increasingly cold later in January

Subscribers can view the full forecast here https://weathertrending.com/2018/12/28/john-hammond-month-ahead-forecasters-spin/

Beginning of January

Mild at first
Often cloudy
Mostly dry

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46705805

John Hammonds month ahead forecast

• Crisp start to 2019


• Briefly wetter before mid-month


• Increasingly cold later in January

Subscribers can view the full forecast here https://weathertrending.com/2018/12/28/john-hammond-month-ahead-forecasters-spin/

We live in hope:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-weather-forecast-latest-beast-from-the-east-type-weather-event-could-hit-britain-as-mercury-a4026581.html

 

---

John Hammonds month ahead forecast

• Crisp start to 2019


• Briefly wetter before mid-month


• Increasingly cold later in January

Subscribers can view the full forecast here https://weathertrending.com/2018/12/28/john-hammond-month-ahead-forecasters-spin/

Can't see as have to sign up and pay...? I assume your highlights are what's in his' month's ahead content?

---

 

Can't see as have to sign up and pay...? I assume your highlights are what's in his' month's ahead content?

 

Yes. Those are the main pointers from the monthly forecast.

 

You don't have to pay it's free to sign up

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mild end to 2018, but cooler in the New Year.

Saturday 29 December—Sunday 6 January

Often dry in the south, rain at times in the north

A ridge of high pressure will remain close to or over the south of the UK this weekend and into next week. Central and southern areas of England should be relatively dry and calm, although there will be a risk of mist and fog forming overnight and lingering into the following day. The north of the UK, being furthest from the centre of the ridge of high pressure, will see more changeable weather. This weekend is a good example of this, as strong winds and showers or longer spells of rain expected to affect Scotland, Northern Ireland and some parts of northern England and Wales on Saturday and at first on Sunday.

The first half of next week will see a similar pattern. Rain could affect some parts of Scotland on Monday and on Tuesday, although most places will be dry if rather breezy for the New Year's Eve celebrations on Monday evening. The rest of the UK should have a dry start to the week, but may remain rather cloudy and dull.

The second half of the week is likely to see high pressure remaining close to or over the UK, so we expect a continuation of the relatively dry weather. However, there will be a chance of showers and rain affecting the west or north-west of the country as Atlantic weather systems try and push eastwards. Finally, the current weekend will be very mild for the time of year, but temperatures are likely to gradually fall to nearer normal next week, albeit remaining a little above normal in many areas.

Monday 7 January—Sunday 13 January

Wetter and windier, with temperatures near normal

The most likely weather pattern for the first full week of January is for things to become more unsettled, wetter and windier than it has been of late. The ridge of high pressure which has been responsible for the recent relatively calm weather will slowly decline southwards into Europe, this allowing Atlantic fronts to push eastwards across the country. Although there is uncertainty in the detail of when the Atlantic fronts will arrive, over the week as a whole it does look likely that most parts of the UK will see rainfall near or a little above normal for the time of year. It also looks a little windier than average in most areas.

Temperatures will probably be near normal, perhaps a little bit above normal for central and eastern England and a little cooler than normal for Scotland. The main alternative to this scenario is that the ridge of high pressure will be slower to decline and could linger close to the UK. This would mean that the weather remains drier and less windy in the south, but wetter and windier for the north, particularly Scotland. It would also remain milder than normal too.

Monday 14 January—Sunday 27 January

Breezy and wet. Probably becoming colder.

In our last outlook, we mentioned the possibility of it becoming colder during the middle or end of January. This is mainly due to developments in upper atmosphere over the North Pole. We are currently seeing significant changes in the wind circulation pattern and temperature of the stratosphere over the Arctic. These kinds of changes are associated with an increased risk of cold weather over parts of the Northern Hemisphere around 2-3 weeks later. But before we get to the colder weather, we expect the middle of the month to be unsettled with rainfall at or above average and with the potential for some windy weather too.

Temperatures are likely to be near or perhaps a little below normal at this stage. The last full week of January is when we are likely to see an increased chance of cold north-easterly winds affecting the country. Temperatures are likely to dip below normal for the time of year, and this will bring an above average risk of snow. Of course, there is still some uncertainty and there is a chance that we will see Atlantic low pressure systems continuing to move eastwards across the country right through to the end of the month. If this happens, it is unlikely to become as cold, but will remain wetter and perhaps windy.

Next Update

Could colder weather still be on the way as we move through January?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2019 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:

After a frosty start on Thursday, it looks set to be a mostly dry day with some bright or sunny spells. However, the far west may remain rather cloudy with some drizzle over the hills at times. This weather pattern is likely to continue into the weekend, but into the following week a change of type is signalled. It is likely to become more unsettled, with frontal systems bringing spells of rain and strong winds in from the Atlantic, interspersed with brighter showery periods. Some snow is also possible, especially across the hills in the north, but perhaps to low levels at times too. Rather cold to start, but temperatures probably returning back to around average with some milder interludes. Frosts becoming much less extensive.

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2019 to Sunday 27 Jan 2019:

It is likely start unsettled across most areas at first, with heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north, where severe gales are possible. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. There is then a greater than normal chance of a change to much colder weather occurring during this period, with an increasing likelihood of frost, fog and snow. Despite the potential change to colder weather, some milder, wet and windy interludes also remain possible throughout this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Could well be February before we see the effects of the SSW, one thing to note the cold keeps getting deferred longer. First it was by the end of this month ( granted that was a small chance ) then as we approach the middle of the January now the backend.

Could well be February before we see the effects of the SSW, one thing to note the cold keeps getting deferred longer. First it was by the end of this month ( granted that was a small chance ) then as we approach the middle of the January now the backend.

Then if we don't get the cold weather at the end of January - that's 2/3 rd's of our winter gone already.

Met Office have always been confident about colder weather from mid January - now it looks like the end of Jan?

---

 

Then if we don't get the cold weather at the end of January - that's 2/3 rd's of our winter gone already.

Met Office have always been confident about colder weather from mid January - now it looks like the end of Jan?

Yes the cold has been put back and in the nearer term they remain bullish about a zonal second week of January.

 

---

 

Yes the cold has been put back and in the nearer term they remain bullish about a zonal second week of January.

 

I said last week that this winter could be a case of chasing shadows and I’ve seen nothing in any of the written/model outputs that will convince me otherwise. Snow in February is bobbins around these parts and  last years attempt resulted in next to nowt lying on the ground for all but a couple of hours.😏