Met office CPF 

December update

January to March 

Temperature summary

For January and January-February-March as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures. The likelihood of impacts from cold weather is greater than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for January-February-March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 30% and 35%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For January and January-February-March as a whole, below-average precipitation is more probable than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for January-February-March will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).​​​​​​​

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-jfm-v1.pdf

https://www.facebook.com/287501884208/posts/10156315705299209/

 

Hopefully the MO 10 day forecast from Alex Deakin will work.

Mentions the SSW.

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Hi David,

What struck me were the words at the start of the forecast for next week: "There is low confidence in the forecast as we head into the Christmas period"

IF they're not even confident about developments in the atmosphere less than a week from now anything beyond that must be even more suspect than usual. That first paragraph is contains 'most likely', 'probably' and 'increased risk'  So, five sentences and four of them contain caveats.  

Hi Peter

I agree totally with your comments above. In many ways, I think we are in almost the same kind of situation now that we were in back in early-mid February this year. Back then, a lot of us were guessing as to what exactly what the SSW that took place that month would mean for our prospects as we headed towards the end of last winter. Those of us who like cold and snow were not disappointed!

At the moment, we just don't really know what the upcoming SSW will deliver fur us this time, assuming it leads to any major changes from the current pattern. "Wait and see" is probably the best approach to take at the moment, IMO.

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https://www.facebook.com/287501884208/posts/10156315705299209/

 

Hopefully the MO 10 day forecast from Alex Deakin will work.

Mentions the SSW.

 

A great forecast, good to have the met and the beeb singing from the same Christmas hymn sheet, very confident about the ssw which is what we want to hear. Now we just have to wait and see what effect it has on the UK.

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Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Dec 2018 to Thursday 3 Jan 2019:

Christmas Day should be bright in the north and east, though there could be a touch of frost and any morning fog patches may be slow to clear. Further south and west it will be mild and cloudy; the cloud should gradually spread northeastwards. It should be mostly dry with only a little drizzly rain in the west. Boxing Day is also looking largely settled but cloudy for many with rain likely for the far north. It should stay often dry through the end of December and into 2019, especially in the south. Further north it may become more changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, which may spread further south at times. Whilst temperatures will be around average, some overnight frosts are possible in any clearer spells.

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

The beginning of this period most likely brings further dry weather in the south but showers and longer spells of rain in the north. However, the unsettled weather may extend to all parts for a time in early January. There is low confidence in the forecast thereafter, although we will most probably see a colder and drier period with the potential for easterly winds and a chance of some wintry weather for parts of the UK. We may also see occasional frontal systems try to make inroads, bringing the chance of further wintry weather in the west. However, despite this potential shift to colder weather, wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Oh dear.😕

Oh dear.😕

The only "Oh Dear" is the incessant hanging on every word of, and I will put it in quotes "FORECAST" at 3 weeks range.

Get over it, it might be cold it might be mild.

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The only "Oh Dear" is the incessant hanging on every word of, and I will put it in quotes "FORECAST" at 3 weeks range.

Get over it, it might be cold it might be mild.

So we may as well not post them or look at any of the model output beyond five days then. There’s no getting away from the fact that confidence isn’t as high as it was a few days ago, either GLOSEA has picked up on another signal which wasn’t a player prior or they’re just making it up as they go along. 😉

So we may as well not post them or look at any of the model output beyond five days then. There’s no getting away from the fact that confidence isn’t as high as it was a few days ago, either GLOSEA has picked up on another signal which wasn’t a player prior or they’re just making it up as they go along. 😉

Or someone else is writing the forecast with a slightly different nuance. We don't know the confidence in the forecast, and I believe (not just with this but things these days) we read way to much into what is written, when standing back and looking at that point in time, it says that cold easterly weather is still possible and more likely than mild.

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I don't see any change which implies that cold weather is any less likely than before?

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Or someone else is writing the forecast with a slightly different nuance. We don't know the confidence in the forecast, and I believe (not just with this but things these days) we read way to much into what is written, when standing back and looking at that point in time, it says that cold easterly weather is still possible and more likely than mild.

After all that it hadn’t been updated. 😁

I don't see any change which implies that cold weather is any less likely than before?

I think it does... 2 days ago.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

Now

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

The beginning of this period most likely brings further dry weather in the south but showers and longer spells of rain in the north. However, the unsettled weather may extend to all parts for a time in early January. There is low confidence in the forecast thereafter, although we will most probably see a colder and drier period with the potential for easterly winds and a chance of some wintry weather for parts of the UK. We may also see occasional frontal systems try to make inroads, bringing the chance of further wintry weather in the west. However, despite this potential shift to colder weather, wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

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After all that it hadn’t been updated. 😁

Here is today's update.


At the start of this period it is most likely that southern parts will be mostly dry, whilst further north it should be more changeable with spells of rain. The weather will probably turn more unsettled for a time during early January. Showers or longer spells of rain, along with strong winds, are likely to affect most parts with some hill snow in the north. Further into January there is an increased chance of a colder but drier than average spell, with the potential for snow across many areas. Despite this, some milder, wetter and windier interludes remain possible throughout the period.

 

LOL! after all that its actually upgraded from yesterday "potential for snow across many areas".

 

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LOL! after all that its actually upgraded from yesterday "potential for snow across many areas".

 

😂😂😂😂 Indeed.

Figures

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Christmas day

Dry for many
Patchy frost & fog
Some sunshine
Cloudier in the west

Outlook

High pressure slips east
Mainly dry
Cloud increasing
Patchy drizzle

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46642152

John Hammond still going for severe cold during January

• Green Christmas


• Quiet end to 2019


• Increasing chance of severe cold in January

MONDAY 24TH DECEMBER – SUNDAY 30TH DECEMBER

Cloud, sun, frost, fog… but no snow

MONDAY 31ST DECEMBER – SUNDAY 6TH JANUARY                                   

High drama about to unfold?

MONDAY 7TH JANUARY – SUNDAY 20TH JANUARY

Severe cold threatens to sweep in

https://weathertrending.com/2018/12/20/john-hammond-month-weather-mild-bitter/

John Hammond still going for severe cold during January

• Green Christmas


• Quiet end to 2019


• Increasing chance of severe cold in January

MONDAY 24TH DECEMBER – SUNDAY 30TH DECEMBER

Cloud, sun, frost, fog… but no snow

MONDAY 31ST DECEMBER – SUNDAY 6TH JANUARY                                   

High drama about to unfold?

MONDAY 7TH JANUARY – SUNDAY 20TH JANUARY

Severe cold threatens to sweep in

https://weathertrending.com/2018/12/20/john-hammond-month-weather-mild-bitter/

Wasn't it John Hammond who back in the summer predicted that August would be less good that June and July, and was proved to be correct?

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John Hammond still going for severe cold during January

• Green Christmas


• Quiet end to 2019


• Increasing chance of severe cold in January

I do admire his confidence.

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Wasn't it John Hammond who back in the summer predicted that August would be less good that June and July, and was proved to be correct?

Yes I do remember JH getting a lot of stick for his thoughts on August, but he was quite right (I still remember battling to stop my tent blowing away in torrential rain in the middle of the night down in Devon that month!)

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