A very good update.  The signals must be strong as normally the words 'low confidence' are used at that range.

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That's as wintry as an update that we are likely to see at that range - but we've had similar ones only for them to be dropped as the time moves nearer and events upstream change.

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That's as wintry as an update that we are likely to see at that range - but we've had similar ones only for them to be dropped as the time moves nearer and events upstream change.

For balance 

 

It works both ways , a mild update can be upgraded also , though you are more likely to go back to mild just because we are the BI and we have a big bit of water to the West

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Confidence must be high at Exeter on cold blocked conditions taking hold as we head into the New Year. Looks like the +height anomaly will be located to our NE and any frontal attack will come from the SW.

Confidence must be high at Exeter on cold blocked conditions taking hold as we head into the New Year. Looks like the +height anomaly will be located to our NE and any frontal attack will come from the SW.

"rain confined to north and west" indicates high pressure to the southeast quarter i.e. south, southeast or east.

 

"rain confined to north and west" indicates high pressure to the southeast quarter i.e. south, southeast or east.

Not really 

The NW can still have rain when other areas further South have a NEly or Ely flow 

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Not really 

The NW can still have rain when other areas further South have a NEly or Ely flow 

it doesn't say northwest it says north and west.

 

"rain confined to north and west" indicates high pressure to the southeast quarter i.e. south, southeast or east.

I was referring to the extended outlook into the New Year.

 

it doesn't say northwest it says north and west.

Ok

Not really 

Parts of the North and West can still have rain when further South can be in a NEly flow 

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That's as wintry as an update that we are likely to see at that range - but we've had similar ones only for them to be dropped as the time moves nearer and events upstream change.

I agree. However their December lrf updates have IMO been terrible and I'm usually quite supportive of them. 

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Met update still leaning towards a cold first half of Jan 

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Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

Saturday looks like being mild with sunshine and showers. It is likely to be breezy in the south. Winds will probably be stronger generally on Sunday with gales around exposed coasts and hills. Rain may be persistent in the south though probably still showery in the north. The UK is likely to stay rather wet and windy for those last minute shopping trips on Christmas Eve. However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

Saturday looks like being mild with sunshine and showers. It is likely to be breezy in the south. Winds will probably be stronger generally on Sunday with gales around exposed coasts and hills. Rain may be persistent in the south though probably still showery in the north. The UK is likely to stay rather wet and windy for those last minute shopping trips on Christmas Eve. However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Another very positive update there. Clearly UKMO believe something is brewing.

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Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

Saturday looks like being mild with sunshine and showers. It is likely to be breezy in the south. Winds will probably be stronger generally on Sunday with gales around exposed coasts and hills. Rain may be persistent in the south though probably still showery in the north. The UK is likely to stay rather wet and windy for those last minute shopping trips on Christmas Eve. However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Looks like a slight backward step with the mention of wet, windy and mild but otherwise it has some promise but we do not want further back tracks over the next few days.

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Looks like a slight backward step with the mention of wet, windy and mild but otherwise it has some promise but we do not want further back tracks over the next few days.

 

Yes exactly - the said mild, wet and windy weather is still possible!? 

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It is not a back-track, it is a percentages game, the odds on is the first 6 sentences but the caveat (Like Leicester winning the premier league) cannot be ruled out.

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It is not a back-track, it is a percentages game, the odds on is the first 6 sentences but the caveat (Like Leicester winning the premier league) cannot be ruled out.

Agree, at that range they would be foolish to rule out our default pattern. 

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Then why not put that caveat in their update yesterday? To me it’s because they may have more uncertainty of the cold weather today than they did yesterday?

 

Agree, at that range they would be foolish to rule out our default pattern. 

So why are the GFS models going for unseasonably mild weather into New Year? - sooner or later the FI in these runs esp the OPERATIONAL and Control will have to go cold and blocked soon!?

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Not liking the MetO update it virtually rules out heights over Greenland and instead we’re subject to possibly another crap Scandi high no doubt, also the wording doesn’t seem quite as bullish as previous ones....... Sorry though I was in the moaning thread. 😜